New Parliament, Old Government

RS After the Elections

AIM Banja Luka, 22 October, 1998

More than a month after the elections and publication of results, parliamentary parties in Republika Srpska are not even announcing the possibility of an agreement on division of power. Recent news attributed to Jovo Mitrovic, vice-president of the Serb National Union (SNS), that an agreement had been reached that the coalition of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) and Serb Radical Party (SRS) nominate chairman of the national assembly, and coalition Harmony candidate for the prime minister, was launched as a bait which nobody bit. The long silence was inzterrupted a few days ago by Predrag Lazarevic, president of the Serb Party of Krajina and Posavina and the leader of the Serb Coalition for Republika Srpska. Lazarevic informed the public that his coalition had joined the coalition of SDS and SRS, and that this post-election coalition had addressed an appeal to the coalition Harmony to form jointly a patriotic coalition of "Serb parties" within which posts would be distributed according to the number of seats in the parliament they had won.

In the meantime, behind drawn curtains on the political scene, a battle went on for winning over deputies of minor parties. Journalists' sources revealed that Harmony succeeded in winning over the Radical Party of RS headed by Mirko Radovanovic, and the Coalition for King and Fatherland led by Dubravko Prstojevic. In this way balance between coalitions has been established in the parliament of RS, which will be the foundation for parliamentary quibbling about who is more entitled to nominate the candidate for the prime minister.

According to AIM sources, mentioning of the patriotic coalition again may be the last weapon of the nationalists' propaganda with which they will "wage war" with Harmony until next elections. The denouement might take the course according to the deja vu and tested scenario. Through the good offices of international mediators, Harmony will ensure support of the parties form B&H Federation in the parliament, and without any problem constitute parliamentary bodies. A source close to the political ladership of the Harmony claims that Socialist Petar Djokic might remain the chairman of the national assembly, and that the posts of his deputies might be offered to Social Democrats of prime minister Dodik and the Radical Party of RS. The prize for joining the Harmony for the Coalition for King and Fatherland could be the post of secretary general for its lader Dubravko Prstojevic, while the Serb National Union would get the post of the co-chairman of the council of ministers. This duty would be discharged by its vice-president Svetozar Mihajlovic.

Concentration of parliamentary power in the hands of Harmony does not mean that this coalition is giving up on executive power. The same source claims that there certainly will not be any agreement concerning the candidate for prime minister. President Poplasen will nominate a candidate from the ranks of the SDS, corroborating it with the democratic right of the most powerful parliamentary party. Such proposals will not win the majority in the parliament, which will cause a crisis and scheduling of new elections. Such a denouement was recently announced by prime minister Dodik in an interview to weekly Panorama. "Either Poplasen will nominate me for the prime minister, or constitutional crisis will arise" said Dodik, without beating around the bush.

Dragan Cavic, vice-president of SDS, reacted to Dodik's political insolence, by admitting that the stale-mate position concerning the election of the prime minister was possible. "We demand that parliamentary majority be created by Serb parties, in other words, the foundation for a government of national unity and we demand that the candidate for prime minister be from the ranks of SDS", says Cavic and describes Dodik's stand as frivolous and irresponsible. "He might already have 42 seats in the parliament with which he will oppose every nomination that is not his own", continues Cavic, obviously aware of the fact that Harmony coalition and prime minister Dodik might win support of the parliamentary parties from the B&H Federation.

The possibility of the Harmony taking over both the parliamentary and the executive power was also recently indirectly announced by High Representative of the international community for B&H, Carlos Westendorp, when he visited Banja Luka. "According to the stand of the international community, coalition Harmony should be given the possibility to form the government again. Any other alternative will not get the support of the international community", said Westendorp without much diplomatic tact.

Wht could be the price of support to such strategy for parties from B&H Federation? It is possible that the international community, drawing a lesson from the experience of the last elections, will exert pressure on these parties not to participate in the division of parliamentary and executive power for the time being. The fact that they play the decisive role in the parliament anyway serves as an argument in favour of this. Only in this case, the possibility could be considered as a strategic support to Harmony. On the contrary, the nationalists would very easily present the coalition with the parties from B&H Federation as obvious treason of national interests in order to preserve power.

Cards will be laid on the table on 29 October, when the constituting session of the national assembly of RS is sceheduled to take place. Should the described possibility be accepted, continuity of state power in RS will be provided by the new parliament and the old government.

Branko Peric

AIM)