Elections in Macedonia

A Game of Figures and Lies

AIM Skopje, 22 October, 1998

The first round of third in a row parliamentary elections has finally passed. Macedonian voters have for quite some time manifested exceptional impatience. After a few days of haggling over figures among political parties which are participating in these elections, the state electoral committee has resolved at least one dilemma - which parties have won more than five per cent of the votes which gives them the right to participate in the distribution of 35 seats in the parliament according to the peoportional system. There are certain doubts about the majority list of candidates and who has made it into the parliament in the first round, although everything is more or less clear about that.

The first round of parliamentary elections, as all parties who had run in them and domestic and foreign observers mostly agree, were fair and democratic. There have been no major incidents, and the number of complaints is small. What caused much agitation and mutual accusations between the opposition and the parties in power is the manner in which it was interpreted who had won in the first round according to the proportional principle. According to the new elections rules in Macedonia, deputies in the assembly are elected in compliance with two principles; according to the proportional principle, 35 parliament members are elected in a single round, and the remaining 85 members are elected according to the majority principle in two elections rounds (only two candidates with the greatest number of votes won run in the second round). What disturbed Macedonian parties and their sympathisers, but also the media, was the question how it was possible to be elected in the first round according to the majority principle. Before the elections in some media, in Nova Makedonija among other, it was published that for the victory in the first round, a candidate needed to win the majority which is not less than one third of registered voters. Such interpretations appeared even in some election material of the ruling Social Democratic League of Macedonia (SDSM).

Just a few hours after closing of the polling stations, electoral headquarters of the parties started informing the public via media about figures they had arrived at based on the insight acquired by their representatives at the polling stations where results of the voting are determined. As time went by, it became clear that the figures spoke in favour of the opposition coalition formed by the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization - Democratic Party of Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) of Ljupco Georgievski and Democratic Alternative (DA) of Vasil Tupurkovski, which won much more votes than it had hoped for. Before the elections, forecasts showed that none of the coalitions or parties could win enough votes to form the future government on their own. The only thing that was certain was that the united parties of ethnic Albanians would win the votes of their population which guaranteed them 24 members of parliament.

On Monday, the first press conferences took place. The coalition of VMRO-DPMNE and DA made it public that, according to their statistics, in the first round they had won 44 seats in the parliament on the proportional and the majority list, and that they were in the lead in thirty electoral districts, which altogether was a foundation for a realistic forecast that they could win more than 61 seats in the future parliament which would give them the right to form the new government. SDSM denied the figures of its political opponent and declared that both parties have the same number of seats won in the first round - 11 on the proportional and 5 on the majority list. It also explained that the reason for this difference in the figures was that on the majority list for the victory it was necessary to to satisfy two conditions -majority of votes (50 per cent plus one vote), but also the cumulative condition that this majority did not amount to less than one third of registered voters. This makes some interpretations justified that the SDSM had prepared this "easier" victory for its candidates in the first round. This stand was confirmed by the president of the state electoral committee and the minister of justice. The confusion was made even greater by the state electoral committee when it introduced new but different figures by publishing the preliminary results...

In the end, the state committee stated the final results of the elections on the proportional list on which 35 seats were divided among VMRO-DPMNE (11), SDSM (10), the alliance of the Albanian parties (8), DA (4) and Liberal Democrats (LDP-2). At the same time, it was stated to the public that in the first round, 23 seats had been won according to the majority principle: the Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) won 8 seats, VMRO-DPMNE and DA coalition 6, SDSM 4, coalition of the Party of Democratic Prosperity of the Albanians (PDPA) and National Democratic Party (NDP) which is a shield for united and still unregistered Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA) 3 and the Socialists 1. Elections continue on 1 November for the remaining 62 seats, which no information has been given about who has the chances to win how many seats and with how many votes are they entering the second round.

After agitation caused by the statistics, which media, especially state controlled ones, greatly contributed to by presenting the euphoric behavior of the winning opposition as usurping of something that did not belong to it accompanied by a cannonade of demonization of both the parties and the leaders of the opposition, it seems that the opposition in fact does not have much need for concern. The opposition coalition has already won 21 seats in the parliament (VMRO-DPMNE 17, and DA 4) and it is in the lead on the majority list in 43 districts, often with no less than several hundred or a couple thousand votes, as opposed to 15 in which SDSM is in the lead.

If some sensational shift or a great theft does not occur, it is clear that VMRO-DPMNE and DA will be the winners of these parliamentary elections. The coalition has offered to the staggering Liberal Democrats who have two seats won on the proportional list and who are in the lead in four places on the majority list, to run together with them in the second round. Should that happen, seventy seats for this three-member coalition would not be impossible.

One thing that is certain after the first election round is that the Socialist Party is disappearing from the political scene. It has so far won only one seat in Kratovo because its leader, Lubisav Ivanov, practically owns the whole town. This party did not even get the five per cent on the proportional list. It did not succeed with its coalition for civic tolerance and cooperation which was formed by minor parties of ethnic minorities headed by respectable intellectual Ferid Muhic. The question remains whether this multiethnic approach on the still ethnically divided Macedonian political scene is just a stone around the neck of the Socialists or whether participation in the autorities has ruined the Socialists as supporters of multiethnic cooperation.

The LDP - union of the Liberal and the Democratic Party did not fare any better. Its leader Petar Gosev, along with the president of the council of this party Stojan Andov are the only ones who made it to the parliament on the proportional list of the party. Liberal Democrats, after they had become the opposition, had 26 seats in the parliament and it turned out that their extremely optimistic forecasts that for this party any figure below this one would be considered as failure, are now raising the question of personal responsibility of their leaders. It seems that the only thing that could save them is a coalition with those who will form the new government, if they ensure a lead in 4 districts on the majority list.

Along with these two parties, about ten minor parties will also disappear from the political scene. It seems that these parliamentary elections will clear the ground only for relevant parties.

Despite all this excitement among Macedonian parties and in Macedonian public, the greatest excitement still lies ahead. Everything should be clear on 1 November. It will be clear whether the groggy SDSM will enter the "finals", by hook or by crook, wishing to turn every defeat into a victory, with unselfish help of state media and demonization of the opposition, or whether it will settle down for the fact that after six years in power, it must go. In favour of the first forecast speaks the fear that much done by members of the SDSM will be revealed, and in favour of the second, the fact that it is very difficult to repeat what happened in Albania in 1996 under the leadership of the then unquestioned Democratic Party of Sali Berisha. At least for one reason - 1994 election forgery in Macedonia was veiled by foreign observers and governments, and it is difficult to believe that they would agree to such a game again. It is also hardly probable that the situation in Kosovo and possible foreign intervention in FR Yugoslavia might be used as a pretext for introduction of a state of emergency in which election results would be nullified. At any rate, the answer will come on 1 November.

AIM Skopje

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