Cold War, Full of Uncertainty?

AIM Pristina, 15 October, 1998

Milosevic was forgiven again, he was given another chance. This sentence is publicly repeated by Kosovo Albanians. But, their eyes and ears are still pointed at the sky. Slobodan Milosevic has been given another few days to prove that he has "changed" and to fulfill what he has promised to do. On the contrary, if the worst should happen, he would have to explain primarily to his compatriots what had happened. Ethnic unity accomplished thanks to fear of NATO bombs, like a few years ago to hunger and inflation and war in the neighbourhood "in which FRY did not participate", this time might last much less. After a possible intervention which would not be aimed at civilian targets, inflation and hunger, shortages and numerous suicides would be repeated. But, the same scanario is never repeated. This time it seems that the tale about various conspiracies of the "rotten non-democratic West" which allegedly hated the Serbs and Serbia would not help. The first tide of panic in Serbia has passed. Perhaps it should not have happened at all. The effect of psychological pressure is that everybody is hysterically laughing and thanking Slobodan Milosevic for having saved them from bombing. They are forgetting, though, the key question why such an atmosphere had to be created in the first place. Therefore, the goal was reached.

Kosovo Albanians were also panic-stricken, although they tried to conceal it. While they were talking about "D-Day", they elaborated plans of defence of their families and themselves. But not from NATO. Threats arriving from Belgrade, directly from vice prime minister of Serbia, Vojislav Seselj, that "the Albanians in Kosovo will be given a very bad time", because, he explained laconically, why should they when they were the ones who had asked for military intervention concealing the fact that it did not come as a result of the demand of Kosovo Albanians but of long lasting policy of the (stubborn) present regime in Belgrade concerning the West, the Dayton agreement, democratization and who knows what not, were taken very seriously, although the experience of the Albanians in the past several years had not been less dangerous than the latest call for lynch, revenge or reprisal... Rumour was quickly spreading around Kosovo about a possible great massacre which would have followed had the West decided to carry out the military intervention. That is why the agreement reached by Milosevic and Holbrooke was taken with relief.

Although none of political influential persons and leaders of political parties went into any detail of this agreement, it was welcomed and assessed as an indeed small, but a step towards establishment of peace and creation of preconditions for further negotiations. However, on the other hand, a deep convinction prevails that the president of Yugoslavia will not carry out what he has promised, as well as that this agreement, but also the offered American plan for resolution of the transitional status of Kosovo works in Milosevic's favour.

For Kosovo Albanians, the controversial items in the plan are as they say, unclarified details about the future ultimate political status of Kosovo. In other words, it is not quite clear to them whether Kosovo is expected to remain within Serbia or whether this is a temporary solution which can later be corrected at the much requested referendum on self-determination. Second, political analysts in Kosovo assess that the plan offers to give Kosovo back its institutions, though not all, which they believe should not be subject of negotiations if one keeps in mind that they were unilaterally and forcibly abolished by Serbia, but that they should serve as foundation for negotiations about the system and environment in which Kosovo will exist in the future. Third, the complaint which is continuously insisted on is the one which refers to the former and the present status of the Yugoslav federation and Kosovo within it, because, as it is assessed in this space, Kosovo is entitled to self-determination that the other republics of former Yugoslavia had exercised. Member of the negotiating team, Edita Tahiri, just a day before international envoy for negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, ambassador Christopher Hill, arrived in Kosovo, where he expected to get approval for the offered project - plan, declared that the offered document on the transitional solution for the status of Kosovo was interpreted by Kosovo Albanians as a proposal which lacked essential elements for creation of a sound foundation for the transitional solution. Although she estimated that it was a step forward towards independence, Ms. Tahiri said that this proposal for a transitional solution lasting three years would be acceptable if the following additional elements would be incorporated: clear definition of a temporary and lasting solution, as well as guarantees that the international community would play a certain role in it, establishment of independent institutions of Kosovo and organization of the referendum under international monitoring after expiry of the period anticipated by the temporary agreement, that the temporary agreement rely on principles of the UN Charter and the final Helsinki document, including the right to self-determination.

In the meantime, prime minister of Kosovo in exile, Bujar Bukoshi, appealed on political parties which gather Kosovo Albanians to send representatives to Istambul to a meeting where, according to him, they should take a uniform stand about the agreement on Kosovo. Bukoshi believes that this agreement is not convenient for Kosovo Albanians and that it is equal to treason.

But, before the beginning of negotiations which are expected to last and to be everything but not easy, it seems that there are certain things on the political scene of Kosovo Albanians which still need to be "settled". The main question which is increasingly put by certain political circles is - who has the right to negotiate in the name of the whole people and sign something that will be less than independence of Kosovo. The most prominent among them are, apart from influential individuals, members of the Liberation Army of Kosovo (OVK) who have said in their statement that, as they put it, a single-party negotiating team was unacceptable, insisting that a government of national salvantion be established, in which all political parties would be represented. Judging by their previous statement, they rely on their political representative Adem Demaqi, who they authorized to be in contact with the International Committee of the Red Cross, as they said - with the other party - concerning monitoring of self-restraint they themselves had proclaimed and release of prisoners, the kidnapped, the arrested and the wounded, that is, to inform international organizations, including the UN, OSCE, Contact Group and even NATO about this decision. A response arrived also immediately from the presidency of the parallel assembly of Kosovo Albanians who claim in their statement that nobody has the right to negotiate and reach decisions in the name of the people of Kosovo if not legitimately elected to the institutions of Kosovo. In this way, local political analysts are further deepening divisions among Kosovo Albanians, with the possibility to acquire forms of internal conflicts and squaring accounts.

In expectation of the deadline by which Milosevic is expected to meet the demands of the international community and for the beginning to withdraw special units from Kosovo which were brought to this territory since March, in the beginning of armed conflicts, the situation during past two days in critical regions was very strained. The Albanian party reported on new shelling of several villages in municipalities of Djakovica, Malisevo, Suva Reka, Glogovac and the region of Bajgorska Salja, by Serbian armed forces, although of lower intensity, so that except for a single wounded Kosovo Albanian in the Malesevo village called Dragobilj there were no other consequences. On the other hand, referring to police sources, agencies claimed that four members of the ministry of internal affairs were also wounded in central part of Kosovo. Many information indicate that just a symbolic withdrawal of certain anti-terrorist units has taken place, that is, that the already deployed units are just taking different positions and fortifying themselves. If rumours are to be believed, mobilization of the Serb population has been renewed. Is Milosevic really preparing for war with the world or is this the beginning of a specific cold war, full of danger, fear and uncertainty?

AIM Pristina

Laura SMAKAJ