Conflict Over Secret Services

AIM Zagreb, 11 October, 1998

For two weeks already, Croatian political leadership is shaken by the so-called espionage scandal. An open conflict broke out between two most powerful men in the President's office. Head of Tudjman's office, Hrvoje Sarinic, accused the main president's advisor, Ivic Pasalic, that he was using the military intelligence service in internal party squabbling. Franjo Greguric, Tudjman's special commissioner for relations with Bosnia & Herzegovina, had previously spoken about it. He announced his withdrawal from politics if he were not protected of alleged persecution of secret services.

The head of the state declared that the polemic of his associates about what he called sensitive questions of state and national security was unpermissible and extremely irresponsible. He stated in public that he had ordered an investigation. A party commission was established within the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ), and one of the secret services was entrusted with verification of allegations on activities of military counter-intelligence officers. Commissions have allegedly completed their work, but their findings have not been stated in public.

Just before the Pope's arrival in Croatia, in a conversation with journalists from the Vatican, Tudjman tried to minimize the scandal. He called it a "small crisis" and announced that the split would be ended by elimination of a few individuals. In the past few days, media have been speculating and even guessing who will leave and who will remain and who has the best chances. Newspapers close to the authorities claimed that Sarinic and Greguric could not keep their posts, among other, because they had presented their explosive accusations in public. On Thursday, Sarinic stated for the public that he had submitted his resignation to all state and party posts, and even to membership in the HDZ. He explained his move by the allegation that the decision about his elimination had been a fait accompli, and that he was subjected to "internal party repressive mechanisms".

After that, the leadership of the HDZ had a session behind closed doors; all that the public learnt was that Tudjman spoke in the beginning, that commissions submitted reports, that - contrary to allegations of the media close to the authorities about a tolerant discourse - it was very tumultous. But, a final decision was not reached. This is expected to happen after a debate about the scandal in the assembly committee of national security. It seems that Tudjman is trying to minimize the conflict, to reconcile the conflicting parties as much as possible and to patch up the split in his party.

The most important thing to do at this moment is to neutralize or manipulate the attempt of the opposition to make a real problem out of the situation in secret services. And yet, the opposition parties have hardly made up their minds to take this problem seriously. At first they claimed that they did not wish to interfere in the internal conflict in the ruling party, but finally managed to conclude that the problem concerns Croatia in general and that they could profit from it. The opposition has been convinced for quite some time that the civilian and the military secret police are used in political squaring of accounts, and now it was given precious evidence about it by the regime. Sarinic is not the first, but he is the most influential politician from the HDZ who has testified about involvement of intelligence services in political struggles and criminal scandals.

Nevertheless, it can be forecast with great certainty that the whole scandal will be terminated with Sarinic's departure from the post. Although he has been Tudjman's closest associate ever since 1990, a man for his most confidential missions, and allegedly his personal friend, the head of the state has turned his back on him. Persons that the chief of Tudjman's office relied on had refused to support him. Even Greguric disassociated himself. He will remain in the party and keep his posts, and probably even his opponents will leave him alone for some time. That is how once again it was confirmed that the conflict was not of a principled nature, but personal. It is in fact primarily a struggle for power.

Tudjman will not go against secret services because they are one of the powerful foundations of his power. That is why he established a dense network of them all around Croatia. He gave them great power and they operate without any supervision. They are guarding his power, but they have become very powerfuld themselves. They keep numerous dirty secrets of his rule. The military intelligence service in the war and the postwar period has become the vault for keeping secrets on war crimes committed by some members of Croatian military units, on smuggling arms and war profiteers, on narcotics trade, on car smuggling, and other forms of crime.

Tudjman will not go against this service and its heads for another very important reason - they are the centre which effectuated his policy in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Kresimir Zubak has confirmed that there is great intolerance among leaders of the HDZ and that they are plotting against each other. In his explanation of the nature of the espionage scandal in Croatian leadership, he says that Pasalic has taken over the structure constructed by late minister Susak and that this is the reason why he is powerful. Zubak claims that the ultimate goal of Pasalic and his associates in intelligence services is division of Bosnia & Herzegovina. Men of confidence are engaged on the job. Connoisseurs claim that secret services are permeated by cadre from Herzegovina, that they have literally become the instrument of Herzegovinian mob oligarchy which rules Croatia. Therefore, the current split in the seat of the regime is just another part of the story which happened to HDZ in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Although the open conflict at the head of Croatian authorities will probably be made up, although just temporarily of course, Tudjman is not capable any more of interrupting the process of dissolution of his regime. Leader of the Liberals, Drazen Budisa says that the HDZ as a party in fact does not exist any more, but it ba brouight down to a conglomeration of interest groups. The denouement of the espionage scandal will most probably mean the end of the so-called liberal faction in the HDZ. It has never been a homogeneous union, but it turned out that its members are not capable even of fundamental mutual solidarity. It was reconfirmed that they were persons who cared more for power than for democracy. After the death of defence minister Gojko Susak, a specific guru of HDZ rightist faction, it was expected that the moderate faction of this party will strengthen. However, just the opposite has happened. The ruling party is sliding towards the right, as the outcome of the intelligence scandal shows. HDZ is increasingly conservative, more and more nationalistic, in an intensifying conflict with the international community. Such developments are not the result of the strength of the radical faction, but it is primarily determined by political inclinations of Franjo Tudjman.

The war in HDZ which is shaking Croatia, amazingly coincides with forecasts presented past summer in the influential American Institute for Peace. Discussing what would become of Croatia, American experts concluded that Croatia would probably develop as a democratic state, but only after departure of the current authorities. They predicted that a definite split would occur in the HDZ. At a few important European addresses which are also engaged in forecasts they claim that at least three factions in the ruling HDZ have already set out in the struggle for winning positions, power and prevalence at post-Tudjmanist era. Turmoil in the ruling ranks, public announcement that secret services are divided and that they have different masters are believed to be symptoms of a growing political crisis. When it becomes impossible to push it under the carpet anymore - it will have to be resolved: democratically or by use of force, they say in Brussels. The present authorities show that they are not very good at democratic methods.

Because of this growing crisis which is spreading from Pantovcak all over Croatia and which Tudjman's regime is not capable to solve, leaders of two strong opposition parties, the SDP and the HSLS, have demanded scheduling of early elections. Liberal Budisa says that it has become quite clear that the HDZ government is uncapable to solve problems in the state, but that it is going from one scandal to another. Social Democrat Ivica Racan stresses that institutions of state authorities in Croatia are tumbling down, which is accompanied by dramatic deepening of the economic crisis and aggravation of international position of Croatia. Claiming that this is a crisis of the model of the present regime he concludes: "Tudjman has exhausted his historical potentials". It is expected that other opposition parties will back the demand for scheduling early elections.

JELENA LOVRIC