Hopes and Fears

AIM Pristina, 10 October, 1998

For the first time since the beginning of armed conflicts, in the past few days diplomacy seems to be gaining supremacy in Kosovo. Because of the means that supported it, some people could reject the use of the term "diplomacy". Nevertheless, actions called diplomacy were always carried out by use of such means, regardless of how visible they were at certain moments. The Serbian leader and his people marked this as a criminal act, obviously because they feel personally affected by it. Had it been otherwise, reactions would have differed or there would have been no reactions at all. But, Belgrade should know best how the mechanism of evaluation of such and similar phenomena functions. For months, in Kosovo, as ethnic Albanians and many others in the world say, it is waging war, even against Albanian civilians and their property, and it calls it the struggle against terrorism, banditism, criminals...

It is a tragic hypocrisy, of course, which it will have to pay for now, although it should be said that there would have been no threats which are addressed to it in the past few days if it had not been responsible for so much suffering of ethnic Albanians, but also for false promises it had never fulfilled. It is true that in the past few days there have been no major military operations, there have been no massive losses among Kosovo Albanian civilians, nor significant demolitions and setting Albanian homes on fire, but it should be also said that there has been all that but on a smaller scale. Despite all that, human suffering in some other forms has not been reduced at all. The big campaign of arrests of Kosovo Albanians continues and suffering of several ten thousand Albanian civilians who are living outdoors, in forests and valleys of Kosovo is increasing. In the past few days, movements of Serbian military and police troops have exceptionally increased, or rather, as confirmed by international observers, their repositioning has started. That is why, apart from withdrawal of a minor convoy of antiterrorist units, they demand that the troops truly and more transparently leave Kosovo. Parties in conflict are offering completely opposite and different data about these phenomena and trends. Kosovo Albanian forces look upon military and police movements from the angle of threats with NATO intervention.

However, different data and perceptions do not change the actual situation. Everybody who lives in Kosovo would say that essentially nothing has changed. This was the assessment, that it is impossible to speak about progress, given by American diplomat Richard Holbrooke at the end of his second visit to Pristina this week (on Tuesday, 6 October and on Saturday, 10 October). Nevertheless, it is obvious that nervousness and tension have significantly increased. This addition to the existing uncertainty in Kosovo is linked to threats addressed to Belgrade - that it will be exposed to NATO attacks if it fails to stop with application of violence against Kosovo Albanians and if it fails to accept a compromise which may become the foundation for a future satisfactory solution for Kosovo.

Direct consequences of fulfilling threats cause concern both among the Albanians and the Serbs. But, due to opposite expectations, the threats and their fulfillment are experienced by these two ethnic communities in completely different ways. While the official Belgrade and Serbian population experience it as a criminal act of interference in internal affairs of their sovereign state and as support to what they call Albanian felons and terrorists, Kosovo Albanians and their leadership believe that military threats and their possible fulfillment are a form of assistance to the weaker party, to protect it from physical destruction. Political representatives of Kosovo Albanians have been advocating this form of assistance for years already, and official Belgrade considers the crisis in Kosovo exclusively its internal affair. As it is known, in order to consolidate its stand concerning the issue of Kosovo, Belgrade has organized a referendum this year. According to published data, a large majority of the Serbs who voted declared themselves against engagement of the international community in resolving the issue of Kosovo.

Consequences of possible foreign military intervention are also observed from different angles. Both Kosovo Albanians and Serbs fear for their personal and safety of their families, but both the ones and the others are overwhelmed by uncertainty concerning the collective destiny of their nations. The impression is that concern about collective destiny is much more prominent among the Serbs, especially among the Kosovo Serbs, who link their safety in Kosovo ever since the appearance of the problem solely for the Serbian state and authorities in Belgrade. For them the best authorities were always those which expressed readiness for most brutal forms of settling accounts with Kosovo Albanians. This is one of the essential reasons why Kosovo Serbs have never become and have no chance to become a significant factor in seeking solution for Kosovo.

The concern of Kosovo Albanians because of a possible NATO intervention is of a more complex and to a certain extent more contradictory nature. The Albanians have wished for foreign intervenion for long, so it would be only logical if they would accept the risk of such a military operation. There has been no analysis in the Kosovo Albanian public of risks of NATO intervention, nor have Albanian politicians publicly stated their views about it in public. However, this does not mean that they do not think about it. Safety and behavior of the Albanians in general, especially of the Liberation Army of Kosovo (OVK), in case of military intervention, was one of the main topics of the talks with Richard Holbrooke during his first this week's visit to Pristina. Among other, representatives of Kosovo Albanians were warned not to try to use possible NATO attacks for their political objectives. That was probably one of the main reasons that on 9 October, the OVK proclaimed interruption of all its military operations.

Foreign analyses carried by Kosovo Albanian media show that there are many reasons for concern of the Albanians in case of NATO intervention. But, they can all be brought down to two main reasons. The first is possible Serb retaliation, and the second is aggravation of humanitarian situation. In quite informal Albanian reflections about this problem, the assessment prevails that villages and towns inhabitted by ethnic Albanian population will be used as hostages to discourage NATO from the attacks or for retaliation because of impotence to offer efficient resistance to NATO. In one way or another this is hinted at in statements of some officials and other persons about destiny of foreigners in case of military intervention, but also of journalists, representatives of Albanian political parties. Vojislav Seselj, vice prime minister of Serbia, after all the threats said in the end that "the Albanians in Kosovo will not have a very good time"... It is sufficient to know that shelters in cities are being prepared and cleaned, but only the Serbs and the Montenegrins know about them. In view of general behavior of Belgrade in relation to Kosovo, it can easily be assumed how it will treat ethnic Albanians who are considered to be even worse and more dangerous than foreigners. Fear is not unfounded that uncontrolled violence might break out in case of general chaos because of possible collapse of the system of control of uniformed and armed persons.

It is logical to assume that from the time of NATO air-raids and conflicts which might follow because of them until they cease there will be no humanitarian aid for displaced Kosovo Albanian civilians. This does not refer only to the 50 to 100 thousand civilians who are on the eve of winter still living outdoors, but also of several hundred thousand others who have lost everything in this war and therefore cannot provide on their own even for their bare existence. Kosovo is already going through humanitarian catastrophe, and in the past few days, the problem is intensified not only because of bad weather. For days, Western countries are recommending, some even openly calling their citizens to leave the territory of FR Yugoslavia because of possible NATO attacks. Among them, there are humanitarian workers of organizations active in Kosovo. Despite denials, foreign citizens are overcome by fear due to which many have already left. In the newly created situation operation of humanitarioan organizations has already been very seriously narrowed down. It can easily be assumed that they will stop working altogether in case of breaking out of animosities anticipated as a result of NATO intervention.

AIM Pristina

Fehim REXHEPI