Waiting for NATO

Still No Solution

Milosevic's policy towards the province is a good example that it is impossible to resolve anything by force. If for no other reason, before taking any action NATO should carefully consider this experience and abandon the idea of an intervention - if not, it will install Milosevic and Seselj in power for life.

AIM Belgrade, 6 October, 1998

Will the cruising missiles be launched from American war ships in the Adriatic towards "predetermined targets" in Serbia? Will aircrafts of the countries members of NATO appear on our sky like in 1995 in Bosnia & Herzegovina? What will be the destiny of this state in case it is struck by explosions, destructions and possible civilian victims?

Nobody is capable of answering these questions with certainty. Interpretations of statements of UN Security Council are equal to reading of sombeody's palm. Via e-mail, users are informed about the latest polls of BBC and CNN about whether Serbia should be bombed or not. Analysts of all colours are explaining to the citizens relations between the USA, the European Union and Russia, and political circumstances in them. An inexplicable interest exists for high diplomacy and mechanism of decision-making in NATO, and an even greater one for the news which embassies have begun evacuating their personnel in Belgrade. Sudden arrival of former American mediator for the Balkan, Richard Holbrooke and the expression on his face after the meeting with president of FR Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic, are foundations for drawing far-reaching conclusions...

In the meantime, there is a great rush at the stores for sugar and edible oil, and long queues are waiting for petrol at gas-stations. And yet, there is no panic. Majority of the population look upon possible bombing as the recent earthquake with the epicentre near Valjevo (it was felt almost all over Serbia): like an act of God, something terrible and undesirable, but also something that can be neither prevented nor avoided.

Although due to escalation of violence in Kosovo in March 1998, the threat of NATO military intervention is constantly present, it seems that the regime along with its zealous followers has started "coming to its senses" only in the past ten days. Along with the ritual patriotic vows at the latest session of the parliament of Serbia, a victorious end of military and police operations in the province of Kosovo was publicised, and it was stated that special police units and various army units were withdrawing into bases. In other words, in a typical manner, the regime made it clear that it was ready to meet the demands of the latest UN Resolution concerning Kosovo. It was also possible to hear in the assembly lobbies that there was readiness to accept the proposal of American mediator for Kosovo, Christopher Hill, on three-year moratorium on determination of the final status of the province. The assembly of FR Yugoslavia seems to have gone even one step further: it officially invited OSCE observers, as if there had never been the referendum in which every foreign mediation was rejected.

Nevertheless, it seems that a few problems exist in all that. The first is that it is the result of pressure and that it has come with a considerable delay. The second - nobody could claim that anybody in the world takes Milosevic's word and promises seriously. The third is that after plenty of experience with the Serbian regime, the international community is sufficiently frustrated and ready for radical moves although it is not sure that they are appropiiate and justified. In this context, it is an open question whether Milosevic, whose ascent to the post of the nationalist and populist leader has begun in Kosovo about ten years ago, is capable of making a radical shift in his policy towards the province.

Aware of everything said, the regime - although maybe just for internal use - is still holdinhg its chin high. The supreme defence council established that, should it be attacked, the country would be defended by all available means. At the most popular hour, channel 1 of state television broadcasts a longish propagandist spot devoted to the Army of Yugoslavia as the reliable defender of the fatherland. In the speech of the federal prime minister, special stress is laid on the state of immediate danger of war. The rhetoric of almost all the politicians includes reference to Kosovo as the sacred Serb land, and posters have appeared in Belgrade signed by "Defenders of Kosovo" in which every "Serb" is clearly informed that there will be no forgiveness for treason - whatever that may mean. Finally, there is Milosevic's statement issued after his meeting with Holbrooke in which he established that the threat of intervention of NATO countries was a criminal act.

The general impression is that after the massacre of eighteen civilians of Albanian ethnic origin in the village of Gornje Obrinje, the intervention has become almost imminent. The declarations that this massacre was planted by the Liberation Army of Kosovo (Alb.: UCK), insisting that this organization has liquidated several ten kidnapped Serb civilians in villages Klecka and Glodjane, and critical reviews of foreign press in order to prove the existence of an "anti-Serb" conspiracy did not contribute at all to removing the threat of the intervention.

However, NATO intervention from the air would actually be a wrong move of the international community. Primarily, because instead of pacification, violence would further escalate in Kosovo. It would practically be impossible to control the UCK which has become extremely radical in the past few months, but this also refers to a part of special Serbian police units. In such a situation , not only would every political and negotiating role of official Belgrade disappear, but a real danger exists that armed Kosovo Albanians might utterly minimize the role of Kosovo politicians gathered around Ibrahim Rugova.

Moreover, the atmosphere of blackouts, air-raid alarms, panic and shortages, would lead to further strengthening of ultranationalist and ultrarightist Serb Radical Party of Vojislav Seselj. Seselj, as the vice prime minister of Serbia, has already made it quite clear that increased chaos and suffering suit him just fine. His threats and browbeating are addressed not only to the NATO soldiers (in B&H it is believed) but also to all those who do not share his stands, independent media and non-governmental organizations for protection of human rights in Serbia. In simple terms, Seselj with his Radicals has already started laying foundations for installing a totalitarian, autarchic, xenophobic regime at war with the whole world. Kosovo and the potential intervention would serve just as the immediate cause and a pretext for it.

Finally in such a symbiosis of Milosevic and the Radicals, nobody can tell what future lies ahead for this country, but also the whole region. In case of the intervention, the official Belgrade would, without any hesitation, begin getting rid of the reformist regime of Milo Djukanovic in Podgorica. It is also highly questionable what would happen to western Macedonia and Bosnia. One thing is for sure: Serbia would sink into utter existential chaos and political darkness headed by Milosevic and Seselj, without any hope of dawn. Nothing would be resolved - indeed, things would just further complicate and escalate.

Kosovo is such a complex, controversial and complicated problem that there is no simple, quick and radical solution for it. The example of Milosevic's policy towards the province shows best that it is evident that nothing can be solved by force. If for no other reason, before taking any action, NATO should consider carefully the experience and abandon the idea of the intervention - if not, it will install Milosevic and Seselj in power for life. This, however, does not at all mean that persistent and principled search for a solution of the drama of Kosovo should be abandoned.

Philip Schwarm

(AIM)