Whose Fault is Biljana Plavsic's Defeat?

The Case Which Serves as a Warning

AIM Banja Luka, 7 October, 1998

Election defeat of Biljana Plavsic, president of Republika Srpska, was the biggest surprise of the past parliamentary elections. In all the estimates of the public, even of those who called themselves analysts of political circumstances, she was the only election favourite. Even those who believed in the success of nationalists, thought Momcilo Krajisnik and nationalistic parties would win, and not the election rival of Ms. Plavsic.

Biljana Plavsic accused the West for her defeat, because "they demanded accelerated action in direction of centralization of B&H". In an interview to her political advisor Srdja Trifkovic, Plavsic explains that her reputation among the people was marred by "constant increase of such pressure" and failure to understand her warnings that such policy led to strenghtening of the nationalist option in the Serb entity. "Such warnings were not met with understanding, but if they had, I would have been the president for another two years", says Plavsic.

On the top of the list of complaints against the international community, Plavsic puts constant reinterpretation of the Dayton agreement in favour of "some kind of spirit of Dayton", which, according to her led to reintegration of B&H. "The result was that many voters of ours experienced my policy of cooperation with the international community as slow withering away of our republic, which would lead to real danger of a new war", says Plavsic.

In considering these arguments of former president, one should start from results of her two year's political activity. For any objective observer results of her internal policy are impressive: economic collapse was interrupted, the market has become stable, the budget consolidated, infrastructure reconstructed, international reputation restored, society democratised, economic reform initiated... Briefly, large steps have been taken towards transition which promised a better future. These results are clear and visible to any man. Along with all that, her human and moral personality could not be doubted: she was outside all canals of crime and corruption, without a single blemish on her curriculum vitae.

The question is, therefore, what are the causes of her defeat? It seems that in Plavsic's arguments there is no exaggerations customary for political losers and that reasons for her political defeat should really be sought in her policy towards the international community or, the other way round, in the policy the international community pursued in relation to RS.

It can be accepted that the attitude of the international community towards RS and the support offered to Biljana Plavsic from various sides during the campaign contributed the most to a lack of trust among the voters. The manner in which the support was demonstrated produced a counter effect because it served her political opponents as a cue for revealing the "international conspiracy aimed at immersion of Republika Srpska in unitarian B&H". Insisting in the election campaign on interentity talks on the school system was used skilfully by nationalists to launch a story on joint textbooks and school system in B&H, which increased fear of unitarization. Arrival of Madelaine Albright, American secretary of State, to Bijeljina and the meeting with leaders of political parties of the ruling coalition "Harmony" two days before the elections, and then arrival of German foreign minister Klaus Kinkel to Sarajevo were interpreted as support which makes the elections irregular and the authorities in RS a treacherous puppet regime. Apart from that, frequent pre-election appearances of American ambassador Kauzlarich with prime minister Dodik at opening of schools, bridges, clinics and waterworks, were also used by nationalists to prove that the current regime was collaborating in "infernal intentions of the West to drown the Serbs in fundamentalist B&H".

If strategy of nationalists in B&H Federation and its influence on RS are added to all that, it becomes clear why fear developed and united the nationalists. Best illustration are statements of generals of the B&H Army Dudakovic and Delic that B&H will have a joint army which was later, according to a statement of Biljana Plavsic, publicly confirmed by general Wesley Clark. "I have put this question to Madelaine Albright. I received the answer that probably journalists' interpretation was to blame for that. They should not have helped me with such statements", Plavsic explained examples which had undermined her political position in her own nation.

"The Plavsic case" leads an ordinary observer of political circumstances in B&H to the conclusion that support and unbalanced pressure which turns the balance either way produces a double effect in B&H: it strengthens the nationalists on both sides. Those who the pressure is exerted on will claim that it is a case of disastrous "policy of double standards", while the others will attribute such policy of the international community to the success of their own nationalistic policy. That is how the pressure of the international community aimed at opening and democratization of RS was interpreted by its citizens as unequal treatment and danger which leads to "disappearance of RS", giving their votes to nationalists who will establish the balance with the other two parties, and Izetbegovic and his extremists could attribute such results to their policy of "united B&H", having convinced the voters in successfulness of such policy.

It seems quite clear that the international community must change something in its strategy for B&H. If it focuses its policy on RS again and exerts pressure on Poplasen alone in order to continue the policy of Biljana Plavsic, results of next elections will be even more disappointing. At this moment, the international community should not disregard the fact that RS, regardless of the fall of Biljana Plavsic and the success of Poplasen has made the largest step forward towards democratization and political pluralization. This fact should be used as the political model in the strategy of democratization of the whole territory of B&H.

Branko Peric

(AIM)