Serbia and Elections in B&H

Fear of Democratization

There are few among the refugees who believe that these elections in B&H will change significantly the relation of political forces, but nevertheless, something is happening

AIM Belgrade, 10 September, 1998

"We got involved only in order to enable as many people as possible to register and practise their franchise. We did not enter into the question who they should vote for nor have we declared our stand in favour of any of the parties which participate in the elections in B&H. There are individuals among the refugees who are running in the elections, it is their right", says for AIM Radmilo Andric, vice president of the Association of Refugees and Banished Persons in FR Yugoslavia, who is also the former mayor of Mostar. He adds that he is personally in favour of parties which advocate changes "because it is obvious that the current authorities still do not wish the process of return of refugees to actually proceed, and that it is more than necessary to "overcome political single-mindedness in the elections" and that at least political climate be created in which the problem of refugees would be approached with more realism and more specifically.

From a conversation with a few refugees who wish to remain anonymous "until it becomes clear whether nationalistic parties are still as powerful as their leaders claim", we learnt that there are no great expectations. Nevertheless, majority claim that each new elections after the war were a step forward, at least concerning relation of political forces in both entities. Majority also think that there are places where it will be impossible to return in the foreseeable future and that voting for multiethnic parties can hardly change anything in the field "because of local powerful nationalists".

Generally one can say that majority of refugees from B&H who have found refuge in present Yugoslavia are planning either to get the passport of this country or to go to some third country. Perhaps this is one of the reasons for forecasts that the turnout will be lower than in the previous early parliamentary elections. This is one side of the coin when view of the elections in B&H from Belgrade is concerned.

Jedna od aktuelnijih tema, ali samo za pojedine ovdaþnje stranake, je koliko åe njihovi kandidati dobiti glasova u Republici Srpskoj. Kao najºeþåi rivali pokazali su se predsjednici Srpskog pokreta obnove i Srpske radikalne stranke, Vuk Draþkoviå i Vojislav µeþelj.

One of the current topics but only for some of the local parties, is how many votes their candidates would win in Republika Srpska. Presidents of the Serb Renewal Movement (SPO) and Serb Radical Party (SRS), Vuk Draskovic and Vojislav Seselj, turned out to be the most severe rivals.

Draskovic's party will participate in the elections in the Serb entity for the first time after nine years, and according to declarations of its leadership, its main goal is to "reconcile the quarrelling", that is, to bridge the serious political gap between Pale and Banja Luka. This slogan was repeated both in statements for Serbian media and at pre-election gatherings in several cities. Is Draskovic capable of settling the quarrel between Biljana Plavsic and Momcilo Krajisnik is highly questionable, though.

Among Belgrade analysts, opinion prevails that this is merely an illusion, as well as the belief that SPO has better chances in Bosnian elections. Draskovic declared on several occasions that his rival Vojislav Seselj leaves the post of the vice prime minister of Serbia and goes off to Republika Srpska in order to cause even greater political conflicts and "fratricide".

It is difficult to estimate to what extent the SPO will profit from the fact that the "red duke", according to the decision of the chairman of the Election Commission in B&H, Robert Berry, is excluded from the "election process" because of tactless attacks on other party leaders, but most probably it will not gain much. Seselj had done everything in order to show that Coalition Harmony of Biljana Plavsic has very little chance to win and according to his forecast, the Radicals will win more votes than in the early parliamnetary elections. As concerning the Socialist Party of Serbia, which has its branch office in RS with the denotation that it is from Republika Srpska, people from its leadership did not travel to the other bank of the Drina and hold rallies, but according to the space given to this party in controlled media, it is not difficult to conclude how much support it enjoys among the Socialists in Serbia.

It is evident that nobody has explained to the public, from the aspect of law, whether parties from Serbia have the right to participate in the elections in B&H. It is difficult to find a politician in Serbia who thinks that in these elections only authentic B&H parties should "compete" in both entities, and that it is a "different state". Among connoisseurs of circumstances both here and in Bosnia, however, it is possible to hear that "it is necessary to accept the reality and let Bosnians and Herzegovinians decide for themselves about their fate".

Elections in Bosnia were given, one could say, the usual amount of space in media - both the independent and the state ones, with extreme passion of fans in the latter.

What has been causing greatest concern in the ruling circles in Belgrade is the possibility of multi-ethnic and civil-society oriented parties winning much more votes than before, because democratization of B&H in the broadest sense of the word, would shake up the Serbian ruling team, while Montenegro is at this moment something quite different.

Ejub Stitkovac

(AIM)