Reflections of developments in Albania

Skopje Sep 18, 1998

MACEDONIA NOT SHAKEN BY ALBANIA

Kosovo still draws more attention of the public than the latest developments in Tirana. Of course, an abundance of information from Albania have arrived and they were carried by media, but the impression is that developments in Albania, for the time being, have not provoked daily political commentaries, while everything that is happening in Kosovo for some time already is greatly used especially because intense pre-election parliamentary campaign has just begun.

AIM Skopje, 16 September, 1998

Developments in the neighbourhood, as a rule, always reflect on neighbouring countries, just as fire does not recognize state borders and it easily spreads in the neighbourhood. Macedonia, which has serious internal problems and which for some time already fears of developments in Kosovo, has additional reason to be concerned by the events in Albania. Macedonian public is highly sensitive to developments in Kosovo primarily because, according to the official results of the latest census in Macedonia, 22.9 per cent of the population are the Albanians (who do not recognize these results) who mostly live in the northwestern part bordering with Kosovo and Albania. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the Macedonian army - neglected at the time of winning independence in favour of the police, shaken by internal scandals, with a small number of soldiers and low response of recruits to call-up - is almost incapable of defending its borders. Preventive role of forces of UNPREDEP, presence of military troops under auspices of the United Nations on the territories where military conflicts have not occurred, certainly are not insignificant. But if commotion in the region is added to this, as well as discontent of Macedonian Albanians with what is going on in the state where they live, the election campaign which has started and is already in full swing, and uncertainty of results parliamentary elections scheduled for 18 October, it is quite clear that the situation is highly complex.

That is why the war in Kosovo, fierce conflicts between those in power and the opposition, as well as uncontrolled armed groups in Tirana, cannot pass without internal political consequences on Macedonia. Concerning the latest developments in Albania, there are still no analyses in Macedonian public of how they might reflect on life in Macedonia. Reactions so far consist of comprehensive information about the events, but also expressed concern. One of the Albanian political parties which is believed to be close to Berisha, condemned the assassination of deputy Haidari which was the immediate cause for the latest riots in Albania.

The whole course of the latest events in Albania (and no less those which are going on in Kosovo) is acquiring a delicate note if one knows that the two most powerful Albanian parties in Macedonia have decided to run together in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. This is the closest election cooperation so far, because the Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP), part of the current government coalition headed by Abdurrahman Aliti, and the Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA) which has not been able to get registered since the Party of Democratic Prosperity of the Albanians and the National Democratic Party have united, and which is headed by Arben Xhaferi, are running in the elections with a joint proportional list of candidates and division of seats on majority lists. Even without the developments in the neighbourhood this causes attentiveness of Macedonian political parties (according to their ethnic composition, because all parties, regardless of their platform, are ethnically cleansed). This election coalition is almost felt as a threat to Macedonia - because the moderates (PDP) and the "radicals" (DPA) have joined together, and they can expect to win between 23 and 25 seats in the future parliament, which will make them a power without which it will be almost impossible to form the future government. The panic, however, is the result of the agreement on election coalition which obliges both parties to strive to achieve certain goals concerning which they have never differed. This union of recent fierce opponents (the two parties were created after a split of the former PDP due to discontent because of the way demands of Macedonian Albanians were met) provoked a series of comments in media in Macedonian which, to say the least, open the question whether this coalition is "natural" (although, to be perfectly honest, there have been such comments concerning other coalitions, too).

As a feedback concerning the support, which preceded the coalition, to Kosovo Albanians and their demands for independence (expressed in a series of joint rallies of the the PDP and the DPA), a number of sharp reactions arrived, although it is an established fact that concerning independence of Kosovo there has never been any serious disagreement among the Albanians in Macedonia.

The latest developments in Albania are interpreted by some as a very good reason for Macedonian Albanians to give up all their demands, because in comparison with what is happening to the Albanians in the neighbourhood they live the best. It is known that for a long time already they have been in a better situation (in relation to Albania for the past fifty years, and in relation to Kosovo at least since 1980). Others, however, those close to the present authorities, persistently (like on the occasion of developments in Kosovo) claim that the negative trends in Albania along with continuation of what is happening in Kosovo, will lead to further, even more "radical" homogenization of Albanian parties which will threaten everything that is Macedonian.

Despite the panic-stricken initiative of Macedonian president Kiro Gligorov - long before the latest conflicts in Kosovo willed by Belgrade began - about a corridor through which refugees from Kosovo would be "escorted" over the Macedonian territory into Albania - this failed to happen. On the other hand, the officials failed to react to the conflicts in Tirana, although it does not mean that they will not do it, especially for the purpose of the election race. In the Macedonian public, if there is such a thing and if we bring it down to media in Macedonian language, theses appeared that refugees from Kosovo are accommodated here as guests. After unrests in Albania last year, hardly a day passes without reports on attempts of illegal entering Macedonia, and there have been numerous (according to Macedonian official sources) incidents concerning illegal crossings and illegally arrived Albanians who are smuggling something (from narcotics to weapons).

The possible reason for macedonian official restraint can be the fact that Macedonian and Albanian prime ministers, Branko Crvenkovski and Fatos Nano, had as hardly anybody in the region and broader, intensive meetings ever since Nano had come to power. They had meetings almost once a month, similarly to Berisha and Gligorov after the former had come to power, which did not last long. Meetings of Crvenkovski and Nano are assessed as more sincere than the previous Macedonian-Albanian state meetings.

The question which arrises is how the developments will be used in the election campaign which has just begun and which is red-hot from its very beginning, because Albania is not what it used to be for fifty years - a strictly isolated state whose internal disturbances could not affect its neighbours.

After the developments in Kosovo, interaction with what is going on in Albania, leaves many open questions in Macedonia, apart from the "open", porous border with its western neighbour. Fortunately for Macedonia, the goal of those who are escaping from Albania is not to stay in this country but to go to the West, so there has not been an evalanche of refugees from Albania, which is an optimistic solution for Macedonia. Just as long as someone does not discover that this could be a convenient item in pre-election marketing, something that can well be used for the sake of achieving better election results.

AIM Skopje

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