Kosovo After the Offensive

Between Guns and Politics

AIM Belgrade, 31 July, 1998

It all happened in the last ten days of July. It all began with the attempt of the Liberation Army of Kosovo (Alb. UÇK) to take over control of Orahovac, town of about twenty thousand inhabitants, some twenty kilometres from the Yugoslav-Albanian border. However, after four days of severe conflicts, Orahovac emerged fully controlled by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Serbia. Trying to conceal great disappointment because of the defeat, commanders of UÇK announced a big offensive. The goal was Pristina - capital of Kosovo. But, instead of them, Serbian police and military forces started a counter-offensive. The federal government widened the bordering region towards Albania from one hundred metres to five kilometres, and the media started reporting about the police removing blockades on the roads Pristina - Pec and Pristina - Prizren, surrounding of several hundred members of the UÇK in the bordering village Junik, etc. On top of all that came the breakthrough of the forces of the ministry of the interior of Serbia into Malisevo - centre of the territory controlled by armed Albanians.

Reports from Kosovo all agree that the UÇK, after minor skirmishes and with no combat, is withdrawing from burnt-down and shelled villages. It leaves behind various parts of military equipment and hundreds of metres of long trenches. Many assess that this organization in the past few days of the Serbian offensive is on the verge of collapse. What has happened? Although activities of the UÇK met with unhidden approval of a larg part of Kosovo Albanians, especially after the massacre of civilians in Drenica in the end of February and the beginning of March, this cannot be said of its objectives. More precisely: hardly anybody could clearly establish what they were. It is a fact that the most powerful of its three, conditionally speaking, factions of the UÇK advocates creation of united Albania which would along with Kosovo include western Macedonia. But the second faction is in favour of independent Kosovo similarly as Ibrahim Rugova, president of the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo (Alb. LDK). The third, opportunist faction, stands somewhere in between the two mentioned ones. That is how it came about that, depending on predomination of one of the three factions, different objectives were advocated on the territory controlled by the UÇK.

Further on, not only did commanders of this organization refuse every political tutor, but they tried to gain control of the whole spectre of Albanian parties in Kosovo. In this way they made political leaders lose their face, Ibrahim Rugova in the first place, and since they failed to present their own political platform and to name their representatives with full authorization, they have become an element whose constructiveness cannot be relied on by anyone, either in Kosovo or in what is called the international community.

It is a fact that the UÇK has clashed with a by far more powerful and better equipped armed force. Although its growth and strengthening in the past six months were undoubted, it seems that this is exactly what it was defeated by. By holding an expanding territory the UÇK was forced to be increasingly on the defensive and to concentrate on defending the conquered, losing its mobility in this way. At the same time, its leaders were forced to organize the authorities, provide supplies, take care of the civilians, etc. Such a situation on a limited territory, without a single city centre, could not go on for ever. The operation of the UÇK aimed to change that - attack on Orahovac - simply did not succeed. And this, one could say, was decisive.

The Ministry of the interior of Serbia was thus offered an unambiguous pretext for a counter-offensive which could not be reproached on the international - diplomatic and political level, and after great losses, the UÇK was shaken. Having started frontal offensive operations, the UÇK was forced to defend itself along a frontline. It could not persevere for long in this way. Having given up on defense of its "liberated territory", the UÇK is striving to keep channels for supplies from Albania open at any cost. Four killed members of the Army of Yugoslavia testify about the severity of these combats in the past few days.

Possible reorganization of UÇK depends on whether these channels will remain open. If arms and ammunition, even reduced quantities of them, continue to arrive in Kosovo, the organization of armed Albanians will be able to recover. However, it is expected that methods of operation will be changed. Many fear that the UÇK may transfer its activities into big city centres like Pristina, Prizren and others...

Although Serbian state media euphorically gloat because of the police counter-offensive, nobody serious believes that the problem of Kosovo can be resolved by the force of firearms. Forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, although large and respectable, are not capable of establishing control over the province. That is why attention is focused on political negotiations and international diplomacy. In the newly established situation, the "new quality" is obviously weakening of the UÇK, comparatively small number of civilian victims, objectively strengthening of the position of Ibrahim Rugova and the possibility that Belgrade will make significant concessions without appearing to have been forced to do it by force of arms.

It is however too early for any forecasts. If the politicians on both sides show a sufficient quantity of good will and flexibility, the UÇK will after some time, when the wounds heal, recover and re-start its operation after some time on all fronts and in a manner which will exceed even the most pessimistic forecasts. Should this happen, there will be no place for politicians: the war will be waged to annihilation of one of the parties and, most probably, in the entire region.

Philip Schwarm

(AIM)