THE AMERICAN TOUR OF THE CROATIAN OPPOSITION

AIM, ZAGREB, July 6, 1998

Another storm broke in the Croatian teacup. A strong wind got up after several weeks ago five leading officials of the largest opposition parties received an invitation to visit the United States, which they did. Although the US is Croatia's theoretical ally, what is more its "strategic partner", as it is whispered in the corridors of Franjo Tudjman's palace, the opposition was accused that no such visit was ever organized for the opposition in any country of the world. In other words, there had to be something fishy about this whole affair. The first thing that crossed the minds of the ruling team was that the opposition leading fivesome went to the USA to get a recipe for an electoral victory and toppling of Tudjman.

The interceding of the American Embassy in Zagreb did not help at all, no matter how many other national opposition delegations which also visited the States they mentioned (German, British, Bosnian-Herzegovinian, etc.). True, soon after these five left, the whole campaign cooled down a bit, which could be explained by a certain improvement in the Croatian relations with the international community after the adoption of the Croatian Plan on the Return of Refugees. But since the hue and cry was raised against the opposition because of pure fabrications aimed at alarming the public which swallows all kinds of childish accusations against the "unjust world and a small, but proud Croatia", it could be launched again any time. Or be raised because of some similar childishness.

This is even more probable when it is known how much the American invitation alarmed the opposition. Already in the first stage, when the invitation arrived, the Croatian Social - Liberal Party of Drazen Budisa decided not to go arguing that it was a precedent to have all major opposition parties travel together to the USA thus giving the main cue to the campaign which was soon after that launched by the HDZ. After that, some other parties, which had accepted the invitation, voiced their aversion to the idea of going so that Zdravko Tomac, the SDP Vice-President, said that his Social - Democratic Party would much rather go alone, but had accepted the invitation only because it understood technical difficulties that the Americans could have with individual visits. After that followed a similar statement of Zlatko Tomsic, President of the Croatian Peasants' Party.

It was obvious that these parties feared that the HDZ campaign could label them as being unpatriotic, and this surely sowed additional seeds of doubt in the SDP. Lately, this party has registered a marked expansion, and some newspaper polls have for the first time ranked it first on the popularity scale, several solid points ahead of the HDZ. All other parties have fallen or lethargically stagnated, while the SDP was never willing to cooperate with them considering them to be only losers parading on the opposition scene rather than developing a true alternative to the regime. These assessments are very close to those of Tudjman, who on several occasions called the opposition dilettantish, brainless and muddle-headed.

This dispassionate distancing of the SDP from all other opposition parties was demonstrated just before the take-off of the five leaders on their way across the Atlantic. In order to thwart the regime's imputations that they were going to the States to get a recipe for electoral victory, just before the journey the SDP submitted to the Parliament a draft Electoral Law, and although this was supposed to be a joint proposal of all passengers to America, the Social-Democrats caused an unpleasant surprise by submitting it with the only party that declined the invitation - Budisa's Liberals. In this way the SDP obviously wanted to send a message to the public that it was not going to America in any kind of coalition package, nor that it intended to return as a part of such package. This is almost certain announcement that the opposition will not form a large coalition bloc at the next parliamentary elections (regular should be held in early 2000, but the possibility of extraordinary ones is not ruled out), although in that way the opposition had scored its greatest success till now (a sliding victory at Zagreb elections in 1995, and also in Rijeka two years later).

Evidently, the SDP has assessed that other opposition parties would be a burden rather than a useful aide, and with a possible exception of one or two parties, it will probably concentrate on small regional parties, as well as trade unions. There are estimates that it could be a winning combination at the forthcoming elections, but such electoral strategy also carries in itself a possibility of HDZ, which also has some combinations with the trade unions up its sleeve, intentionally causing a conflict at the trade union scene and then defeating the SDP, whom other opposition parties would no longer want to help in a relentless social hand-to hand war.

Thus, the American tour of the Croatian opposition leaders revealed the disunity of the Croatian opposition ranks, whose greatest weakness is the failure to cash in those few points it has earned in confronting the HDZ, and which rather starts from the beginning each time. Also, irrespective of the fact that there was nothing out of the ordinary in their trip to the States, it still revealed some things which were equally embarrassing for the opposition, as well as the HDZ. The international community has been for years the only true opposition of Tudjman's rule, the only one to ask questions (primarily regarding Serbs in Croatia) that the opposition avoided raising in the past. It also asked those question which the opposition wanted to raise, but failed to for the lack of strength (democratization of political institutions and the media). Consequently, the opposition placed itself in a paradoxic situation to be beaten even by the international community, although its intentions were to strengthen and help the opposition to take over the power.

It could be, therefore, said that the opposition accepted the invitation to visit the USA not because it really wanted (all similar invitations received in recent years were flatly declined), but because it did not dare say no to the foreign partner who is, at the same time, its rival. Still, even so extorted, this trip represents a challenge for Tudjman's ruling team. First of all, because after many years of American support to Tudjman, although at moments it seemed quite contrary, the conditions are ripe to turn a new page. Secondly, as mentioned, until now the Croatian opposition always declined such invitations, so that by its trip to the States, it has shown a kind of maturity in the struggle for power, devoid of any pseudo - patriotic concerns and lamentations.

Finally, this visit is a direct blow to Franjo Tudjman's vanity, whom no one invites for a visit so that he has to do it himself by going to gatherings at which world leaders meet and where there is a chance of him being, at least, photographed in their company (the World Exhibition in Portugal, World Football Championship in France). Even the President of the neighbouring Slovenia, Milan Kucan, in principle refused to meet with his Croatian colleague saying that at this moment there was nothing the two of them could talk about. However, what hurt Tudjman the most were futile attempts of his diplomats to organize his visit to the country for which the Croatian opposition delegation has just left - the United States of America.

MARINKO CULIC