Rating of Political Parties in Macedonia

All Kinds of Polls

Four months before the autumn parliamentary elections, Macedonian public is simply overwhelmed by numerous public opinion polls which are aimed at convincing people that they are right to believe what they believe. But, obviously, all the political parties have their own "representative sample"

AIM Skopje, 6 July, 1998

Judging by the number of various public opinion polls, expert and non-expert probing the disposition of the electorate and mostly amateurish, telephone surveys carried out by numerous media, one could draw a conclusion that the parliamentary elections in Macedonia were scheduled for next month already, and not that one will have to wait for them until mid October. In other words, one gets the impression that the struggle for the souls of the voters has moved from its natural, political ambience into the world of figures which allegedly express the stands of ordinary people, with only one goal: to convince these very people that they are right to think what they do. Majority of these polls in fact show an amazing party colouring, so it is hard to believe that anybody at all participates in them. The reason for it lies in the fact that the public opinion is "investigated" in offices and election headquarters of different parties, so the pollees are not even needed.

Be what may, all these numerous probings impose a clear conclusion that the Macedonian electorate is absolutely divided along the ethnic line. The media which write in Macedonian, but also majority of investigations simply take it for granted that the portion of the votes which "naturally" belong to the Albanian political parties cannot significantly affect the future distribution of posts in Macedonian authorities, so it is not even seriously analysed or estimated. Obviously struggle for power will be fought among "Macedonian" parties, although the ethnic electorate of Macedonian Albanians forms almost one quarter of the total. Among parties with Macedonian ethnic prefix, it seems that all the polls agree and reflect the actual situation in the field, the old favourites and fierce ideological opponents stand out, like at the time when "democracy arrived in our part of the world". On the one extreme is the Social Democratic Union (SDSM), the party which has inherited the tradition of the former League of Communists and which is the backbone of the current Macedonian authorities. On the other is the VMRO-DPMNE, the party of strong national colouring which has managed to get rid of some earlier disadvantages and it certainly will not repeat the catastrophic political mistake from the previous elections when it voluntarily withdrew from the procedure.

These two parties have the best developed infrastructure and the most consistent electorate, so it is expected that they will head the two alternatives. The only question that remains open is which one of them will attract a larger number of coalition partners. Judging by the results of majority of the polls, these two parties could count on the same number of votes in the forthcoming elections, which amounts to about eighteen per cent. A poll published last month carried out by DATA-PRESS, an investigation team which enjoys a high reputation in Macedonia, says that 18 per cent of the pollees are in favour of the party currently in power, and that the most significant opposition party with the largest membership can count on 17.29 per cent of the votes. Certan circles, however, have suggested that in the first version of this poll this small difference had existed but in favour of VMRO and that it was changed by the pro-regime daily Nova Makedonija which is at the same time the headquarters of the respectable investigative agency. Approximately at the same time, certain details were published from a very comprehensive public opinion investigation carried put for its own needs but also for the needs of Macedonian parties by American International Republican Institute. The results of this investigation show that, according to the current disposition of the voters, the most satisfied would be the members of VMRO, since slightly more than 27 per cent of the people would give their votes to them, and ranking second is the SDSM with slightly less than 16 per cent.

All the other parties enjoy less confidence of the citizens, but their expectations from the forthcoming elections are also lower. The Liberal Democratic Party which at the moment has one quarter of the total number of seats in the parliament, but had "earned" them as the former member of the victorious coalition it has later abandoned, can count on less than ten per cent of the votes. The Socialist Party which is for practical reasons still in the coalition with the SDSM, could count on support of three per cent of the electorate at the most, and the youngest party in Macedonia, the Democratic Alternative of the former Yugoslav official Vasil Tupurkovski, in just two to three months of its existence has procured decent eight per cent of votes. There is no indication how the disposition of the electorate could radically change in the next four months, so that it is already certain that not a single individual party in Macedonia can win power on its own. Since in the current circumstances, it is impracticable for the two most powerful parties, the SDSM and the VMRO-DPMNE to appear together, it is assumed that they could become the pillars of future coalitions.

The ruling party, at least for the time being, appears quite self-confident and there are no official announcements of a possible pre-election partnership. Its leaders probably rely on the possibility that they will be able to win a sufficient number of votes on their own which will enable them to form a post-election coalition and remain in power. Along with their traditional partner, the Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity, members of the SDSM assume that the Socialists would go with them again, although exceptional differences between the two parties have appeared. The greatest rival, the opposition VMRO-DPMNE is manifesting the same self-confidence at the moment, certain that there is plenty of time for coalitions. Behind closed doors, however, intensive talks are going on about grouping of opposition parties and their joint appearance in the elections. Although the party leadership is opposed to it, majority of intellectuals gathered around VMRO, the opinion has been formed that the current authorities cannot be removed except through joint action of the greatest opposition parties. The possible most important partner, the mentioned Liberal Democratic Party would gladly reinforce its position and although its potential electorate is much smaller, it is already asking for half of the posts in the authorities. Nobody believes that it will actually get it, but a large majority of Macedonian public which would welcome a change of the authorities is certain that the two parties will make a deal. Some minor opposition parties might join this block, so that all calculations aimed at change of authorities are founded on association. In the past elections, the ruling parties, by forming the coalition "League for Macedonia" utterly defeated the opposition, so they have a premonition where the real danger is coming from. This has caused an apparent paradox. Media controlled by the parties in power, by their articles, commentaries and alleged public opinion polls, are intentionally raising rating of their most dangerous rival VMRO-DPMNE in order to convince it that it is possible for it to win the elections if it runs on its own.

Numerous polls concerning popularity of certain personages are obviously also used for propagandist purposes on the eve of the elections. Media close to the authorities are firmly sticking to the already mentioned survey of DATA-PRESS according to which the most popular figures in Macedonia are the head of the state Kiro Glifgorov and Vasil Tupurkovski, leader of DA, but other personages from the state leadership do not lag far behind. The opposition press is forcing a poll according to which Branko Crvenkovski, prime minister and leader of the ruling party is among the most popular personages in the state. Special interest was caused by some details from the already mentioned survey of the American Republican Institute. Among the possible presidential candidates, Vasil Tupurkovski has a great advantage, having won the confidence of 37 per cent of the pollees. This is five times more than the current head of the state and even seven times more than his other possible successors. Such results fit quite well into the old speculations that Vasil Tupurkovski will help his ideological brethren to remain in power, and they will pay him back in presidential elections. The Institute which carried out the poll just testifies that the USA are also in favour of such a solution.

AIM Skopje

BUDO VUKOBRAT