SKOPJE: A HARD EQUIDISTANCE

A Look from Tirana on the Skoplje Policy Towards Kosovo

AIM Tirana, June 26, 1998

If Kosovo would get its independence one day then the Albanians in Macedonia would demand the same and that would be the end of it. Later, both sides would demand to unite with Albania. This thesis represents a worrisome conclusion of the architect of the Bosnian peace, Richard Holbrooke's analysis publicized several weeks ago in the media.

Although the center of fighting is now in Kosovo, Macedonia doesn't cause less concern. Irrespective of the fact that until now, aware that it wouldn't be tolerated, Milosevic has managed to avoid the escalation of conflicts in this region, Macedonia is still swarming with enigmas. One of them concerns the behaviour of the Albanian population in Macedonia. Caught on the other side of the border, peaceful for the time being, some 400 thousand Albanians from the FYROM have been watching with anxiety recent armed conflicts with Belgrade taking their toll in Albanian lives in Kosovo with whom they are linked in many ways, including many years of joint life in former Yugoslavia. The Albanians in Skoplje have organized massive protests with the burning of the Serbian flags in support of their Albanian brothers in Kosovo.

Willy nilly, Macedonia is with every day nearer to a dangerous maelstrom which is seriously threatening its fragile stability. It is as if the crisis in Kosovo has put the present Macedonian Government in a "sandwich" on the internal plane: wedged between the growing Albanian nationalism, on the one hand; and the pan-Slavic feelings which are awakened in the Macedonians at the very mention of the Albanians, on the other.

However, it seems that the crisis in Kosovo has, for the first time, put Macedonia before a serious regional dilemma: between Serbia, with which it wants to avoid all problems and Albania with which it shares more than traditional friendship (which actually never existed), i.e. common allies, particularly the American security umbrella which is essential for the Macedonians.

The alarm has been sounded and Skoplje is already making a turnabout away from political cooperation with a pronounced American emphasis in order to get on a more cautious course endeavouring, above all, to distance itself to the extent possible from the conflicts and any move that could be misinterpreted or cause problems. The retraction of the statement on the latest NATO military exercise, statements on the resolution of the Kosovo problem within Serbia and cautious slowing down of relations with Albania - that is the new Macedonian foreign policy course which, it seems, is trying to cool down the tempers in Belgrade which instill fear in the youngest state in the Balkans.

This is hard diplomatic play for Crvenkovski's Cabinet. There seem to be several factors which have simultaneously influenced Macedonia to take a new position. Apart from Skoplje's pathological fear of its former Serbian ally, the forthcoming electoral campaign should also be pointed out. The ruling Social-Democrats had difficulty in competing with the propaganda of VMRO-DPMNE, a party representing the Macedonian nationalistic right. The latest criticism of Georgijevski, the VMRO-DPMNE leader, has also been addressed to the most recent NATO military manoeuvres, which he assessed as a direct involvement of Macedonia into a conflict which had nothing to do with it.

This has somewhat hindered the avantgarde Macedonian policy towards cooperation process with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization which was confirmed by the dilemmas Macedonia had to face during the latest NATO exercise. Initially, the Foreign Minister, Hadzinski condemned the NATO manoeuvres. Hadzinski said that "the Macedonian territory could not be used for military activities against any of the neighbouring countries". Later, however, during his visit to Tirana, two days before the exercise, Prime Minister Crvenkovski confirmed Macedonia's readiness to cooperate with the Alliance. And while NATO aircraft were flying low over Tirana, as if just to show their presence, they flew high over Skoplje as if avoiding to be seen.

According to some Brussels sources, together with its previous refusal to take part in possible attacks on Yugoslavia, this withdrawal was received with skepticism by NATO in whose plans of possible military operations against Milosevic Macedonia figures prominently.

The relations between Skoplje and Tirana, which until recently were advertised as "the model of regional cooperation" have suddenly cooled off. After Nano's two successive visits within only three months, the Macedonian Prime Minister, Crvenkovski paid a two-day visit to Tirana which was commented in diplomatic circles as being forced.

During six months of intensive communications, Albania and Macedonia have signed 14 bilateral agreement with a view to liberalising or partially abolishing the system of visas, developing border trade, transport and telecommunications. Being on the margins of what is known as the Eighth Corridor, but also on the new map of the American geostrategy in the Balkans, the two Governments made major leaps towards their affirmation, aware of the Washington's satisfaction. From this aspect, it seems that the Nano's Government has made the most drastic moves, overcoming historic prejudices and setting aside current problems to which some Albanians, both in the country and abroad, are still sensitive.

It appears that in this way Nano's policy towards Skoplje has turned a new page which brought the relaxation of tensions between the two states and created conditions for the emancipation of the national rights of the large Albanian population in Macedonia. However, the latest developments in Kosovo seem to have marked the blocking of this process which appeared to have made a considerable progress. The signed agreements the effect of which should already be evident, especially in the border area of both countries, have foundered in parliamentary and governmental procedures in both Skoplje and Tirana. The most important agreement, that on the abolishment of visas for the border population has been postponed several times because "the population has not been issued the necessary documents".

On the other side, the internal, the Macedonian Government continued to behave "stiffly" towards the Albanians. The most evident sign of such inflexible Macedonian attitude, the attitude which is becoming more pronounced with the approaching elections on the one side, and the war in Kosovo on the other, was the sentencing of the Gostivar Lord Mayor to long-time imprisonment. The initial mutual will has given way to the traditional ice once again confirming pessimistic rumours that these moves were unnatural and forced rather than natural and real.

In the last years the Albanian-Macedonian relations were as volatile as can be imagined. Berisha was among the first to recognize the Macedonian state ignoring the obstinacy of its southern neighbour Greece, which has not yet overcome the conflict with Skoplje regarding its name. Dictated by the Americans, this move did not stop the former Albanian President from occasionally attacking "the discriminatory policy towards the Albanians" of the state he considered "unconsolidated and without any internal stability". Ironically, several years later, none else but the Macedonians used these same epithets when referring to Albania. The Brussels sources say that one of the reasons for Skoplje's reluctance to participate in NATO's exercise was equal treatment of Albania and Macedonia by the Alliance, at least strategically.

This policy which aspires to distance Macedonia, in diplomatic terms, equally from its northern and southern neighbours at a very delicate moment for the regional security, seems like a trump card which Crvenkovski's Cabinet has decided to play, starting with the Albanian factor. The geopolitical balance is the basic principle of Macedonia's survival, and Skoplje is well aware of that. The problem is the extent to which Macedonia will be able to preserve this balance caught in the cyclone together with the Albanians and Serbs, all the more as the Macedonian balance greatly depends on the balance within its multi-ethnic population among which the Albanians might easily become dominant in near future.

AIM Tirana

Ilir PACO