ALBANIA BETWEEN REFUGEES AND PLANES

AIM Tirana, June 18, 1998

Terrifying roar of 84 NATO low-flying aircrafts over the Albanian sky bolstered hopes of some 15 thousand refugees from Kosovo. At the same time, it brought the atmosphere of war closer to the Albanian capital which was previously indifferent to all that was happening on the north of the country.

Ever since the beginning of June, Albania has been faced with the rising inflow of refugees which, according to the UNHCR data, has reached the figure of 15 thousand. The drama of the refugees has alarmed Tirana. Parallel to its appeals for urgent international humanitarian assistance, the Albanian Government has changed its language, abandoning the course of absolute respect for every recommendation of the West regarding Kosovo, as was its practice till now.

Foreign Minister Pascal Millo warned that the drama with refugees "is a problem for Albania today, which tomorrow might become a problem of all European states", thus making it clear that refugees might turn to the West. Difficult economic situation in Albania and especially hard conditions in the north, which is the poorest, make it practically impossible to take in the wave of refugees which has reached the figure of 20 thousand people.

For the time being the situation in the north seems to be under control. Some 15 thousand refugees were welcomed by the local population. Several international humanitarian organizations and western governments have sent emergency food aid. The opening of the airlift between Tirana and Sarajevo made it possible to send 150 tons of food assistance which came by NATO aircrafts. The Government, much criticized by the opposition and the press for its delayed action and indifference, has appointed a representative in charge of the assistance operations. The Albanian President, Rexhep Meidani and President of the Kosovo Government in exile, Bujar Bukoshi, visited zones with refugees.

Irrespective of all the mentioned actions, if the influx continues the situation might easily get out of hand. In the north, the infrastructure is completely destroyed. Lack of water, roads, hospitals and the obsolete telephone network make things even harder. On the other hand, a kind of "war economy" has already developed there, accompanied by rising prices and intensified activities of profiteers. On the other, a large quantity of arms threatens the already fragile public order.

The Government tried to localize refugees in the northern parts of the country so as to be able to control the situation. As a precondition for securing assistance from humanitarian organizations it demanded that they be registered and issued refugee cards. However, there are large movements of refugees to other parts of the country because of the difficult situation in the north, especially extreme poverty, but also intention to get to the West, mostly Germany and Switzerland.

If this influx continues and if they move towards Tirana, there is a danger of a large-scale war economy being established in the capital which would cause the run on shops, rise of prices and fall of the currency value. Since the last year's crisis Tirana is well versed in the rules of speculations.

However, the arrival of refugees was more felt in papers and offices of the capital, than on its stock exchange. The newspapers in Tirana have heightened nationalistic feelings. On all front pages the picture of Rugova has been replaced with a figure of the OVK fighter. "Freedom fighters" give interviews in which they call everyone to take up arms. During a concert in Tirana which was broadcast live on state TV and which Prime Minister Fatos Nano also attended, a singer ended her song with a cry: "Long live OVK"!" The Government has erased the term "terrorism" from its vocabulary as it was previously used in reference to the Kosovo Liberation Army. On the other hand, Berisha, who until a month ago considered OVK to be "Arkan's creation", now thinks that it is "the greatest army in the Balkans which will liberate Kosovo from the Serbian occupier as well as NATO allies in the region". The united right, which includes several small right parties, has demanded the proclamation of the state of emergency and general mobilization in the whole country.

Actually, it seems that the fact that State Department has never included the OVK in its lists of terrorist organizations, as PLO and IRA, has closed this chapter. Now, the OVK can be considered more of an armed popular movement which cannot be identified with a terrorist organization. The Government in Tirana hesitated to openly recognize the OVK or perhaps it is that the Government is being judged by what it does rather that than what it says. Undoubtedly, the OVK fighters had and still have strong backing in Albania. It cannot be said that the official Tirana rendered support to the OVK, but it can be claimed with certainty that it did not obstruct it either.

There is much talk in Tirana about "identity crisis" in the Albanian movement today in Kosovo. Rugova's mandate is no longer considered as sacrosanct as it used to be. Berisha has openly asked from Rugova to join forces with the OVK as its political wing. Others, who think that Rugova's peaceful policy has failed, demand a political platform from the OVK. Both sides demand from Albania to openly support the OVK. In an article published in the French daily "La Monde" and the Albanian paper "Gazeta Shqiptare", the Albanian Prime Minister did not make a single reference to the OVK, but also avoided to mention terrorism when referring to it.

On the other hand, the opposition leader, Sali Berisha abandoned the careful language from the time he was in power and has put on nationalistic garb. His criticism addressed to, as he calls it, "hostile Government" in Tirana, heightened political tensions in the country which are already high. A possibility of Berisha taking advantage of the Kosovo crisis as well as the reluctance of the current authorities to get back in race so as to win back his position, cannot be ruled out. But, it seems that there are very few supporters of this dangerous game both in the West as well as Albania.

If until late May the official Tirana tried to apply a policy which would satisfy both sides - the West and Pristina alike - being successful only with the West, ever since the start of the refugees crisis the "obedient child" has begun showing signs of insubordination. Nano's insistence on the deployment of NATO troops on the north of Albania was joined by Meidani, who is pressing for the deployment of NATO forces in Kosovo too.

This discrepancy between the two main institutions of the Albanian state is hard to explain, but it seems that Albania is playing a kind of game with several possible outcomes. It is evident that opinions of the Government are still rather level-headed, while those of the President and Parliament are quite radical.

Nano presented his plan to the Alliance, which he calls a "diplomatic support" which envisages the deployment of NATO forces in Albania. For the time being, the Organization has set up its office in Tirana, but that is considered insufficient. Albania is demanding military troops at its borders.

"This presence is more than necessary if we do not want Albania and Macedonia to become a battleground", said Nano in one of his interviews.

For his part, immediately after the NATO exercise, Meidani said: "There is no time to waste. International presence in Kosovo is necessary in order to stop the war and spreading of conflicts throughout the region as well as to help find some solution both for today and for tomorrow".

The latest NATO air exercise over the Balkan sky was just a display of Alliance's power to Milosevic, but also a sort of support for the Albanians. Albania has officially offered its airport facilities to NATO if need be. According to the Albanian press the American reconnaissance aircrafts which have been deployed at the military airport "Gjadri" with the task of monitoring the sky over the Balkans, are the same ones used at this same airport during the war in Bosnia.

A possibility of new flights of 84 NATO aircrafts which flew across Albania early this week, is not ruled out after the unsuccessful talks between Yeltsin and Milosevic in Moscow. But, while the exhibition was organized without bombs, the actual launching of Tornadoes, Jaguars and F16 would certainly prove more dramatic. Albania which is becoming more fearless than NATO's "Determined Falcon" itself, has anticipated that in the next few days general air exercises will be held under the code name "Eagle" These would be the largest-scale maneuvers the Albanian Army ever participated in.

Conflicts in Kosovo are the first to be waged within Serbia. It warred in Bosnia, but outside its territory. At the same time, the Kosovo conflicts are the first in which the crisis has spread over the borders of former Yugoslavia. In Bosnia the conflicted remained restricted within that which once used to be Yugoslavia. Now, it threatens to draw in Albania, where first refugees have arrived and over whose border not only Serbian and Albanian, but also NATO aircrafts flew. Macedonia should also not be forgotten in this since its delicate ethnic balance is still unstable. Terrifying scenes from the Balkan Wars in 1913 are not something one finds only in history books.

And while Albania and Serbia are still grinding teeth at each other, a true "braccio di ferro" between the West and Russia has happened far away from the Balkans. The West has a stick and Russia the carrot. However, it is not certain whether the former giant of the East wants to keep the carrot for itself or is saving it for the Balkan butcher. One political analyst in Tirana estimated that after all "the assistance of the West is far more important for Russia than the remnants of the Yugoslav Federation". If that is so, then in few weeks Milosevic will lose his only hope - the Russian veto in the Security Council. That means that NATO aircrafts will fly again. Next time carrying bombs.

AIM Tirana

Remzi LANI