Milosevic vs. Djukanovic: Reconciliation or Ceasefire

Illusion, Not Reality

AIM Podgorica, 17 June, 1998

Precisely six months after inauguration of Milo Djukanovic for president of Montenegro, federal boss Slobodan Milosevic has convened the Supreme Defence Council, the collective commander of the Army of Yugoslavia. This sudden decision of the president of FRY, who has for half a year turned a deaf ear to demands coming from the smaller federal unit about necessity of convening of this agency, caused numerous reactions and speculations. Montenegrin authorities immediately cried out that by inviting Djukanovic to the session of the military council Milosevic has finally recognized in the past several months so persistently questioned president of Montenegro, while from the ranks of Bulatovic's party it was claimed that by agreeing to the presence of their leader Momir Bulatovic at this session, Djukanovic had recognized Bulatovic as the prime minister. Bulatovic immediately issued a statement which made it clear that he was offering this compromise to Djukanovic - we have recognzed you as the president of the Republic, now you recognize me as the federal prime minister. However, the other party refused the offer. Djukanovic and his fellow-fighetrs responded that for them Bulatovic's government was illegitimate, that they were just an informal group which is sitting at the Palace of the Federation and that Montenegro expected that the post of the prime minister and seven ministerial posts would soon be offered to the Montenegrin ruling coalition "For Better Life".

In this context some media immediately started to make guesses about the name of the new prime minister and those of new federal ministers, taking it for granted that Milosevic and Djukanovic had made a deal that Montenegrin president would not do anything to threaten Milosevic and that Miloseic would terminate the media war against Montenegro and finally allow it to carry out the duties and rights it is entitled to on the federal level according to the Constitution. Such speculations were supported also by a sudden polemic between leaders of Djukanovic's party and leader of the Serbian Democrats Djindjic, which was interpreted here as gradual disassociation of the Montenegrin leadership from Serbian anti-Milosevic opposition.

After that, Djukanovic attended the celebration of the Day of the Army in Belgrade, where he looked quite "patriotic" with the army raincoat wrapped around his shoulders, like several years ago, in Konavli near Dubrovnik. Montenegrin state media also significantly moderated their stand to official Belgrade, so that Milosevic is not presented in such dark colours as in the past year. The shift in behavior of Belgrade to Podgorica also fitted into the picture of possible reconciliation of the two presidents - Milosevic's propaganda greatly retreated in its view of Montenegrin circumstances, and even spokesman of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Ivica Dacic, went along these lines by saying, just a week after he had called Montenegrin elections a police and mafia contrivance, that Montenegrin elections and their results were "the internal affair of another country" and that they did not wish to interfere. There were articles in the press that on the eve of the session of the Supreme Defence Council, Milosevic had sent head of the counter-intelligence service Dimitrijevic to Podgorica to prepare the ground for relieving tensions between the two leaderships.

However, despite all that, the question is whether it is possible to speak about reconciliation between Djukanovic and Milosevic or whether it is an imposed ceasefire which will last until the first opportunity arises. Because of the war in Kosovo, this ceasefire is forced on both Milosevic because it is very important for him to draw Djukanovic into the crime he has organized himself, while this gives Montenegrin president some space to withdraw concerning the question of Kosovo without acquiring the label of a traitor and fellow-combatant of "Squiptar terrorists". This is something like a poker game which Milosevic is losing but wishes to share his loss with somebody else, while Djukanovic is trying to play the role of an on-looker who is neither risking nor gaining anything, which he will be able to do only as long as not a single recruited soldier from Montenegro is killed in Kosovo. On the contrary, Djukanovic who is already enduring an ordeal because the parents and the opposition, but also his coalition partners are pressuring him to withdraw recruits within borders of Montenegto, would experience a great political and moral loss, so great that his current very high credibility among the citizens of his Republic would begin to crumble. The assembly adopted a resolution on Kosovo which includes the provision that Montenegrin recruits would be immediately withdrawn to the territory of the Republic in case the army is involved in the war. At this session, leader of the National Party which is a member of the ruling coalition, Novak Kilibarda, demanded that in case of full confrontation of FRY with the international community and bombing by NATO airplanes, a referendum be organized in which citizens of Montenegro would be asked whether they wished to live under Milosevic's regime.

But even more than anything else, adoption of a new, majority law on election of deputies for the Chamber of the Republics of the Federal Assembly points out to the unbridgeable gap between Belgrade and Podgorica. By this law, Bulatovic's party will be eliminated from the Montenegrin delegation, and only representatives of the ruling coalition would be elected for the assembly in Belgrade. This will enable Montenegro to take a firm stand against Milosevic and on the level of the federation he practically cannot pass a single important decision because he will be blocked in the Chamber of the Republics by votes of the monolithic Montenegrin delegation. Because of passing of this law, Bulatovic's deputies left the Montenegrin assembly, Bulatovic himself moved with his family to Belgrade, the federal court announced that it would consider legitimacy of Montenegrin delegation, which are all facts that indicate that the front between official Belgrade and Podgorica will be reopened at any moment.

Of course, at the moment Kosovo is in the focus of interest and it will dictate the developments on other Milosevic's battlefields. Cataclysmic variants of the epilogue at this moment seem much more realistic than any optimistic ones, but the thing that can preserve Montenegro is its majority desire to pull out from Milosevic's deadly embrace.

Marko VUKOVIC

AIM Podgorica