From Nano-Milosevic to Rugova-Milosevic

AIM Pristina, 26 May, 1998

In a short statement for Albanian TV, prime minister of Albania Fatos Nano, expressed satisfaction with the meeting Rugova-Milosevic, but did not forget to mention Crete when he and Milosevic shook hands for the first time in November 1997. In the meantime, the Albanian foreign minister, Paskal Milo, also saluted the meeting, but did not forget to add that it was "just the first step on the several-kilometre long road". The official statement of the Albanian government which also saluted the meeting, did not forget to mention the need for the "presence of a third party in the talks on Kosovo".

Between Tirana and Pristina, or more precisely between Nano and Rugova, for six months already lies the shadow of Milosevic, the persons who complicated their calculations. The meeting in Crete which met with suspicion, not only failed to bring about the expected improvement of relations between Tirana and Belgrade, but on the contrary, it led to estrangement between Tirana and Pristina. Just like Nano, after shaking hands with Milosevic, Rugova faced with criticism of internal political opponents. Nano was accused of treason, Rugova of capitulation.

Regardless of parallels which can(not) be drawn, it seems that the current contacts between Tirana and Pristina are minimum. The official Tirana seems to gather more information about options on the mind of Rugova from newspaper articles and diplomats who are officially travelling along the railroad between Tirana-Belgrade-Pristina, than from official representatives of Rugova. It seems that messages from one to the other side of the border were carried by Holbrook and other diplomats who have visited the region. The leader of Kosovo Albanians has not visited Tirana since September last year for consultations. Numerous diplomats who have visited Tirana in the past three months demanded from Tirana to use its influence on the leadership of Kosovo Albanians in order to make it act more moderately and with more constraint. A few weeks ago in Strasbourg, Russian foreign minister Primakov sharply demanded from his colleague Milo to use all the influence Tirana has among Kosovo Albanians in order to stop what the Russian minister called "Albanian terrorism". However, it is not difficult to assume that the influence of Tirana among the Albanians on the other side of the border, both on Rugova and those who are in favour of the talks, and on the Liberation Army of Kosovo (OVK) and those who prefer weapons, is - at the minimum.

Prime minister of Kosovo in exile Bukoshi even declared in his interview to the magazine Klan, without much diplomacy, that the greatest assistance Tirana can offer Kosovo was not to thwart its plans.

In fact, the stand of Albania towards the issue of Kosovo was often confused. This is explained by the confusion in the political movement of the Albanians, the so-called Rugova's Gandhism, and the confusion of the West recommendations of which Tirana was trying to follow.

Recently, Albania demanded that a "maximum solution within the borders of the Yugoslav federation" be applied on Kosovo, meaning that it should have the status of the third republic in Yugoslavia. The proposal met with disapproval by Kosovars who do not want to accept any solution except independence, but it did not meet with interest of the Contact Group either, which it was addressed to. However, regardless of the fact that they know exactly in the West what is the extent of influence Nano has on Rugova, Tirana is considered by the western negotiators to be one of the possible actors in the crisis or as a "part of the problem", as Holbrook put it. First, escalation of the conflict in Kosovo would include Albania, regardless of whether the respective leaders respect each other or not. Second, regardless of the absence of aggressive nationalism among the Albanians in Albania, if massacres in Kosovo continue, reactions cannot be excluded especially of the population from the northern zone who are closely linked to Kosovo among other because they have relatives living across the border. And third, armament trade from Albania, although in proportions which are much smaller than presented by Serb propaganda, could turn into a dangerous factor in the conflict. Not because several ten or hundred Kalasnykov machine-guns which are crossing to the other side of the border could change the military balance between the well-armed Yugoslav army and the OVK armed by Kalasnykov guns, but because this trade could be a pretext to Milosevic for continuation of the operation of cleansing the border with Albania.

The press in Tirana informed in the past few days that in the vicinity of the town of Lezhe 60 kilometres from Tirana the police stopped a truckload of weapons for Kosovo. Two Albanians - one a citizen of Albania, the other from Kosovo - had loaded the truck with about 200 automatic rifles, 400 shells and some ammunition.

In an interview to the CNN, after his visit to Tirana, Belgrade and Pristina, Richard Holbrook said that the Albanian prime minister had told him that Albania could not fully control its borders. Holbrook also talked about fear of a certain "Ho Shi Min trail" for passage of arms from Albania to Kosovo. However, the ambassador of OSCE in Tirana Daan Everts, having inspected the northern border, declared that armament trade was symbolic. It seems that the difficult situation of the weak Albanian army on the one hand and fear of punitive Serb operations in the vicinity of the Albanian border on the other, are the main reasons which stimulated the NATO to keep open the possibility of deployment and installation of military troops, similar to UNPREDEP, in Albania or joint manoeuvres with the Albanian army in the north of Albania.

Those in favour of the meeting Rugova-Milosevic who were mostly also in favour of the Nano-Milosevic meeting, have a tendency to see this meeting as a positive step. For them, the fact that Milosevic was forced to meet Rugova means that the Yugoslav president was forced to definuitely recognise legitimacy of Rugova as the elected leader of Kosovo. For those who supported this meeting, the third party has nevertheless been present, but it was in the shadow or masked, probably not to put Milosevic in the difficult situation after the referendum against international mediation. Without Holbrook's negotiations it would have been impossible to imagine the meeting of 15 May.

The officials in Tirana also consider it good that the dialogue was opened on the federal level and not the republican (Serbian), which for them means that the solution will be sought within this framework.

On the other hand, opponents of the meeting criticised it not only because of the absence of the third party, but especially because of the fact that the talks took place while Serb military operations continued in the field. Some journals in Tirana look upon the meeting in Belgrade as Crete II - as yet another defeat of the Albanians and yet another victory of Milosevic.

Of course, without this first step hardly any movement down the road foreign minister Milo marks as a several-kilometre long would be possible. However, who got more out of this first step, Rugova or Milosevic, it is early to tell.

It is evident that for the moment Milosevic is awarded by prompt suspension of a part of the sanctions which refer to ban of investments. If Rugova has offered a compromise which can be justified, the west has offered a concession which seems too hasty. Because talks about talks are not real talks, one could make a pun.

Tirana seems to be very clear at least when this question is concerned. "It is still early to offer carrots. We believe that more stick are needed", said foreign nminister Milo. The Albanians use a somewhat harsher terminology for the metaphor of the "stick and the carrot" - that of the cake and the whip. In other words, it is time for the whip, not the cake.

Former president Berisha who was highly critical concerning the meeting in Crete believes the meeting between Rugova and Milosevic to be "a positive step towards resolution of the problem". Berisha is offering his support to Rugova again, giving up on support to Rugova's political rival Demaqi. Quite unexpectedly the organ of the Democratic Party has recently attacked what it called "patriotic and folklore stands" of Demaqi. It also appears that Berisha has given up on his anti-Americanism, too, which he paid for dearly a year ago when he demanded only American mediation in the talks on Kosovo. On one occasion, Berisha had also called the Liberation Army of Kosovo "Arkan's product", but at his latest press conference he changed his vocabulary announcing that "if Milosevic is not stopped, he will have to face the most powerful army in the region", referring to the OVK.

Although the first step is usually considered to be the hardest even when Kosovo is concerned, danger exists that the steps which will follow will be even harder. Rugova's train has arrived at its destination. There is no peace after this statetion. The OVK is over there. If Rugova experiences defeat, it will mean that the peaceful road has also been defeated. On the other hand, after this step, any status quo will be unacceptable, even impossible. If peace negotiations fail, only war can follow.

It seems paradoxical, but after the first meeting between historical enemies, the question arises more clearly than ever: has the peace road completely failed? With no doubt, hesitation and reluctance have favoured radicalization, just like massacres and fighting in the field make compromise at the negotiating table more difficult. Nevertheless, it is still early to say that the peaceful road has failed, but it is not early to say that this road is not considered to be the only one by many Albanians any more.

And while the Albanians in Albania are divided in their views of Rugova, Demaqi or Qosja, it seems that there is no difference in stands concerning the OVK. Although there is not much nationalism in Albania, this did not prevent the OVK from becoming very popular. Newspapers in Albania keep publishing interviews with combatants of the OVK who are often called "armed fighters for freedom".

If the meeting in Belgrade resembles what an Albanian journalist called ballet on ice, what is happening in the hills of Kosovo resembles Chechnya, and what is happening in the towns resembles Palestine, and the possibility of the appearance of a Nothern Ireland variant cannot be excluded. The problem which arises is, however: while Milosevic represents Milosevic, the ordinary Serbian citizens, but also the Serbian policemen who are killing and who are killed in the hills of Kosovo, Rugova represents Rugova, the ordinary Albanian citizens who demand independence from Serbia, but not the soldiers of OVK who are on the move around the hills of Kosovo.

AIM Tirana

Remzi LANI