After Montenegrin Parliamentary Elections

THE FEDERAL STATE ON A SEESAW

With the victory of the coalition "For a Better Life" at the elections, Djukanovic has strengthened his positions, but whether that will be enough for him to oppose Milosevic's personal rule on the federal level, remains an open question.

AIM, BELGRADE, June 2, 1998

In his first statement issued immediately after the convincing victory of his coalition "For a Better Life" at Montenegrin parliamentary elections, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic announced that his next step was democratization of Yugoslavia. Although expected, such an undertaking of the Montenegrin President is a greater and more uncertain challenge than the electoral victory at home.

Namely, in gaining his purpose Djukanovic will have to confront the Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic, who with his conduct so far has clearly shown that he had no intention of sharing the power with anyone. Applying the method "join me or get out of my way" Milosevic has repeatedly proven that he would stop at nothing in protecting his personal power.

And while placing their trust in Djukanovic, the Montenegrins have chosen a better life, the last year's elections in Serbia enabled the Serbian leader to create an extremely strong coalition which is obedient and loyal. Coalition with Seselj's Radicals and the Left, headed by his wife Dr.Mira Markovic, enables Milosevic to hold all power in Serbia at the federal level also. Relying on Momir Bulatovic, Milosevic has so far managed to ignore Djukanovic and refuse to recognize his election for the President of Montenegro. Now circumstances have changed that much that Djukanovic is now in position to obstruct the Federal Parliament if it fails to take into consideration the interests of Montenegro, as well as to contest Momir Bulatovic's election for Prime Minister.

After Montenegrin parliamentary elections the question that came to the forefront is what will happen to Yugoslavia and will Milosevic and Djukanovic find a compromise solution whereby to establish mutual cooperation or will their conflict intensify further. Advocates of the common sense logic believe more in the first possibility because they cannot imagine that these two would remain irreconcilable in their aspirations at the cost of jeopardizing the state with all that it implies.

On the other hand, there is a conviction that Milosevic and Djukanovic will not be able to overcome their misunderstanding all the more as their political programmes are diametrically opposed. After all, their conflict had started at that moment when Djukanovic called Milosevic "a spent politician" and asked him to retire. Since then Djukanovic is a thorn in Milosevic's flesh which he cannot get rid of although he had undertaken major steps to remove him from the political scene. In this he used Bulatovic, but as it turned out, he played his cards badly.

With the victory of his coalition in Montenegro, Djukanovic has strengthened his positions, but that is not yet enough to topple Milosevic and without such a move it is illusory to speak about the establishment of democracy in Yugoslavia. All previous Djukanovic's statements point clearly that he sees Yugoslavia as a democratic federal state with both its members being equal. That concept won him the support of the international factors which are "watching his back" in his clash with Milosevic's personal rule.

Djukanovic is insisting that the federation should function on the basis of the existing federal Constitution. However, that is what bothers Milosevic most, because his constitutional authority as President of Yugoslavia has been reduced to protocolary affairs, while key jurisdiction lies with the Federal Government. Aware of this, Milosevic rushed to name Bulatovic federal Prime Minister before elections in Montenegro hoping to keep the power in his hands through him.

This appointment was carried out despite the opposition of the Montenegrin Assembly, which does not recognize Bulatovic as federal Prime Minister. Consequently, this points that Djukanovic's first step will be to demand new election of the federal Prime Minister. This task is in the jurisdiction of the Parliament of Yugoslavia in which its two chambers equally decide on all issues within federal Parliament's purview.

In the Chamber of Citizens Milosevic has sufficient majority to carry out any idea he might have. There is much greater uncertainty as regards decision-making in the Chamber of the Republics, especially as 20 delegates from Montenegro are yet to be elected. Its composition will determine whether Djukanovic will be able to oppose Milosevic's intention to centralize the power at the Yugoslav level. As a half-recognized Prime Minister, Bulatovic has already announced the cancelling of some of the competences of the Republics, as well as the dissolution of the state security service at the federal level and the establishment of secret police.

Djukanovic will be able to thwart such plans only if he has 20 deputies in the Chamber of the Republics who will loyally represent decisions of the Montenegrin Assembly. Therefore, with the view to preserving Montenegro's equality at the level of the Federation, the priority task of the new Montenegrin Parliament is to elect deputies who will respect their imperative mandate, i.e. vote in the Chamber of the Republics on the basis of instructions of their republican assembly. If SNP (which got some 36 benches at the elections) members happen to be in that delegation, then Djukanovic will not be able to prevent Milosevic from rearranging the Federation to his own liking.

On the other hand, the elimination of the SNP delegates from the republican delegation which represents Montenegro in the Federal Parliament, might be interpreted as Djukanovic's willfulness and, in that sense, picture him as "little Milosevic". Many think that Djukanovic will have to take such a step despite the risk of earning such a reputation. He is forced to make such a move by the fact that Milosevic did not have an ear for the legitimate interests of Montenegro which it expressed through its delegate majority, as well as that he did not recognize the results of presidential elections at which Djukanovic had won.

That is why everyone thinks that Milosevic should be answered in "Milosevic's way", i.e. the appointment of 20 new delegates to the Chamber of the Republics who would observe the instructions of their republican parliament. That is the only guarantee that Montenegro will succeed in protecting its equal position at the federal level. It is widely believed that the Chamber of the Republic exists only for cases when imperative mandate of the delegates has to be applied, irrespective of the party they belong to, because in the Federal Assembly they represent interests of their republics and not political parties. These interests are formulated in the republican parliament, i.e. by the majority, meaning that the winning coalition "For a Better Life" will have a key role.

In that case, through Montenegrin delegation to the Chamber of the Republics, Djukanovic will be able to obstruct the adoption of any law or any other decision he considers to be disturbing the equality of the republics, as well as to contest Bulatovic's election for Prime Minister. On the other hand, as a reply to such practice Milosevic could ignore the federal Parliament, which means that he would flush Montenegro down the drain. The following days will show whether because of the clash of the two political concepts the federal state will find itself on an uncertain seesaw or perhaps the tension between Belgrade and Podgorica will relax. It would be ungratifying, even frivolous, to make any forecasts if we remember what has happened in the last ten years precisely as a result of stubborn inflexibility of holders of the highest political and state functions.

Ratomir Petkovic

(AIM)