A New Ethnic Bloc in Macedonia?

THE MACEDONIAN COALITION "TOGETHER"?

Will the new electoral law in Macedonia force Turks, Romanies, Serbs, Wallachians, Macedonian Moslems and Bosniacs to appear in the future on the political scene united by similar interests and a programme.

AIM Skopje, May 28, 1998

Last week, President of the Macedonian Parliament Tito Petkovski, announced regular parliamentary elections in this former Yugoslav Republic for November 17, almost on the same day when the current members of the highest legislative body started their term of office. This made, in fact, official the failure of the local opposition, despite its surprising perseverance, to secure special elections, which it had announced already during the preceding electoral procedure when two largest opposition parties: the Democratic Party and the VMRO-DPMNE withdrew from the electoral race after the first round on account of alleged rigging. Their initiative failed even after they addressed European institutions and managed to get 200 thousand citizens' signatures in support of new elections, in other words when they won over one Parliamentary fourth, i.e. delegates from the Liberal Party which had abandoned the ruling coalition. However, it seems that these largest opposition parties finally got full satisfaction for all their frustrations over their failed attempts to cut short the mandate of the current authorities.

The same day the date of new elections was announced, Macedonian Parliament adopted a new electoral law which, much to everyone's astonishment, took account of all the proposals of the opposition and included in its final version all its essential amendments. This is, by the way, the first authentic legislative act which defines conditions for the most important political competitions which in the two preceding cases were organized according to regulations adopted under old monistic regime, but only slightly adapted to the needs of emerging multipartyism. According to the newly adopted law, the future unicameral parliament with 120 benches will be elected through a combination of majority and proportional systems with a ratio of 85 to 35 delegates. Judging by first reactions, but also by slightly overbearing forecasts as to the possible election results, both those currently in power and those hoping to get there in late November, will accomplish their electoral ambitions.

However, this pre-electoral idyll is somewhat spoiled by the fact that the new election conditions will play into the hands of only, so called, large parties and will auger badly for the small ones which will, in all likelihood, soon be pushed to the political sidelines. For their part, neutral observers of the Macedonian political folk lore think that this is, in the last analysis, extremely good considering that the local ideological market will finally be "aired" and that the political scene will develop in tune with the standards prevailing in developed democracies. There are as many as 38 political parties in the political party register of two-million strong Macedonia, and some are yet to be legalized. Apart from some ten truly relevant and influential parties, most are dwarf private-political organizations which apart from their party apparatus, do not have other followers, and whose political programmes are undefined and vague even to their own leaderships.

There is, however, the other side of the coin. There are several among the small parties which represent the political interests of national minorities, which has given a specific charm to the Macedonian democratic landscape. As things stand now, all minority parties, except, of course the Albanian ones, will soon be "out". Under the new law, only the parties that poll the minimum five percent of the total electorate will qualify for entry into the "proportional" part of the future parliament, and according to the current balance of powers, this limit cannot be attained by any non-Albanian minority party, simply because it will not win enough votes. These are parties that advocate the political interests of ethnic groups which account for between 2-3 percent of the total population.

Thus, the Turkish minority in Macedonia, according to the most recent census, numbers some seventy thousand people, there are some fifty thousand Romanies, slightly more than 40 thousand Serbs and around 30 thousand Wallachians. There are no data for Macedonian Moslems and Bosniacs, but their share is not negligible either. Such disaggregated data are not impressive, but observed cumulatively there are not small either. This is a figure of over 200 thousand people, although some local politicians suggest that it exceeds 300 thousand, i.e. represents a substantial percentage in the total population, which will, according to what certain minority political leaders say, be denied the elementary constitutional right to replenish the Parliament on the proportional model, as well.

The advocates of the new law, but also the greatest part of the local general public, however, are of a different opinion. They cling to the fact that Macedonia is defined by its constitution as a civil state and that by the same token one cannot speak about any kind of discrimination against the "small" minorities. Speaking through the media, but also in the debate in the Parliament whose active member he is, the leader of the Romanies Alliance, Amdi Bajram, the most vocal and, in this case, most persevering champion of minority rights, has tried to convince his colleagues delegates to the parliament that they have done an injustice as the Constitution is one thing and the reality quite another.

Although the forming of mono-national parties is against the law, except for a few exceptions, all large political parties in Macedonia are either "Macedonian" or "Albanian", which implies that they will win the voters confidence on the basis of their national affiliation. Bajram further referred to the experiences of certain other civil societies, where minorities are secured direct participation in the legislature under certain other instruments. The persistent Amdi Bajram did not succeed to trigger a serious debate on any of the already applied modalities, but only to arouse ridicule of a part of the general public.

The leader of the Romanies Alliance, it seems, is not alone in his endeavours and he has already announced that together with like-minded persons from other minority parties he will demand justice from European institutions. At this point of time it is hard to believe that anything could change on the legislative plane, but this does not a priori mean that the political situation is totally hopeless for minority parties. Bajram himself came up with the idea how to ensure an equal appearance at the forthcoming elections and thus has shown that, in addition to business acumen, he does not lack political prowess either. According to his own words, one of the most prominent leaders of Romanies in Macedonia will seek to prevail upon politicians that share his views to appear together at the forthcoming elections. The national bipolar Macedonian political landscape would thus acquire a genuinely new quality, and in addition to the two existing blocs, the Macedonian and the Albanian, a third political bloc would be formed.

This political group would articulate the electoral interests of national minorities, except for the Albanian, and upon possible entry to Parliament represent specific interests of ethnic groups which are most frequently forgotten since the inter-ethnic dialogue is usually conducted in this state on the level of Macedonian - Albanian relations. If nothing else, it would be a true refreshment in this God-forsaken parts to see Turks, Romanies, Serbs, Wallachians, Macedonian Moslems and Bosniacs rallied around the same political task. And God knows it might also turn to be inspirational.

AIM Skopje

BUDO VUKOBRAT