WASHINGTON OR NOT, THAT IS THE QUESTION

AIM ZAGREB, May 30, 1998

The Croatian opposition was once again scared to death that it might come into power. Obviously, the invitation of the American Administration extended to Croatian opposition leaders to visit the United States and have there talks with high officials of the American Administration, caused panic - among the majority of opposition parties - as if that would bring them to power immediately upon their return. Drazen Budisa, an "original liberal", immediately informed the papers that he had no intention of going to Washington, calling the very idea "a precedent". In this way he actually dropped a hint to the ruling party - the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) - which took it immediately so that its spokesman Drago Krpina urgently wrote a letter to the American Consul in Zagreb, William Montgomery.

"Imagine the US Administration or British Government inviting opposition leaders of Germany, France or Italy for joint political talks", wrote Krpina to Montgomery saying that he has never heard of "anything similar happening before and that he hardly believed anything like it could ever happen". Even before Krpina addressed Montgomery, the state media, and notably the Croatian Television, raised a hue and cry against the American initiative. Everything fitted nicely into the context of Tudjman's speech he had delivered in Lika several days earlier at the opening of the reconstructed home of the "Father of the Nation" - Ante Starcevic - in which he sent a clear message to the international community that Croatia would rather accept the sanctions than lose its national pride. This modified sentence on the nation which would rather starve than yield to foreign diktat, was elaborated and used again and again in numerous press editorials and addresses of the HDZ officials.

The anti-American hysteria acquired such proportions that the American Consulate in Zagreb was forced to issue a statement expressing its "disappointment with the sensationalistic speculations regarding the possible visit of representatives of the Croatian democratic opposition to the United States". In a rather depressing tone, the Americans explained that nothing spectacular, least of unusual, was in question. This was the International Visitors Programme - IVP, organized by the USIS: The US Information Service - within which the usual and regular visits of state officials, party leaders and representatives of non-governmental organizations to the United States were realized. The US Embassy in Zagreb informed the public that since Croatia became independent (in 1991) over hundred Croatian citizens visited the USA within this programme. The release concluded, not without cynicism, that "it has the pleasure to inform that the HDZ spokesman, Mr.Drago Krpina himself, has personally accepted the invitation of the IVP to pay a visit the USA in the forthcoming period".

However, even the reasonable explanation of the American Consulate in Croatia did not blow over the storm so that the American Ambassador announced for Monday, June 3, after the celebration of the Croatian National Day, a press conference at which, as he said, he would speak about "visits of the opposition representatives to the States, as well as all other issues related to the Croatian - American relations". In the meantime, the weekly "Nacional" carried a spectacular story entitled "The American Attempt at Toppling the HDZ According to Montgomery's Model from Bulgaria" on the front page of its edition of May 27. According to this strained thesis of the Zagreb weekly, which is quoting a report of a non-profit organization - the International Republican Institute (IRI) - it was IRI which played the key role in uniting the Bulgarian opposition and thus enabled it to win the 1996 elections in that country when the non-democratic regime of the President Zelo Zelev lost power. According to "Nacional", the same plan is being used now in Croatia, where the IRI representatives - in the context of the invitation extended to the opposition to visit America - have already held preliminary talks with the opposition leaders in Croatia.

Thus, thanks to "Nacional", the whole case with the Washington invitation to the opposition acquired proportions of an international conspiracy implicating all kinds of suspicious organizations and other evil spirits. Naturally, disunited and indecisive as it is, the Croatian opposition was scared to death not only by the invitation, but also violent reactions of the authorities which ensued, so that apart from Vlado Gotovac (The Liberal Party - LS), Radimir Cacic (The Croatian National Party - HNS) and Ivan Jakovcic (The Istrian Democratic Alliance - IDS) no one else dared accept the invitation. Ivica Racan, President of the strongest opposition party - the Social-Democratic Party (SDP) which, at least as far as the polls are concerned, is the only one which can endanger the HDZ's power, bought some time with his statement that he would publicize his decision after he received the official invitation, obviously trying to assess whether, in view of the hysteria that has been created, trip to the USA would prove beneficial or harmful. Gotovac was quite clear with his logical statement that it was perfectly normal for the opposition to fight for power, just as it was normal for someone aspiring to win that power to talk with such an important world power, as the United States of America.

However, all this dust that was raised in Croatia regarding the invitation extended to representatives of its legal, parliamentary opposition to visit the USA, reflects a veritable fear of the ruling party that it could lose power at the next elections. If it were not for that fear and were it ungrounded, the intensity of the fury and actual hysteria surrounding this invitation, would have been much lower, insignificant or non-existent. The Croatian political top is deeply aware of the intensity of dissatisfaction of the official America with the Croatian policy. This is primarily true when it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is most important for Washington and in which it has invested the most. The obstruction of the Dayton Agreement and the wish to keep Herzeg-Bosnia alive, have infuriated the Americans so much that as of late they are becoming aware that no progress can be expected with the current authorities in power which they have stated openly ever more often.

In any case, speaking several days ago at the Zagreb University, Consul Montgomery himself made it perfectly clear what was expected of Croatia if it wanted to improve its relations with the States. That was, primarily cooperation in the implementation of the Dayton Agreement - the absolute American foreign-policy priority in Europe; the return of the Serbian refugees; and finally, the democratization of the country, primarily of the electronic and printed media. "If these conditions are fulfilled", said Montgomery, "the States are prepared to support Croatia's joining "Partnership for Peace", i.e. an introduction to the NATO Alliance, by the end of this year".

A part of the Croatian policy - more precisely, the right, Radical wing of the party in power, which, irrespective of the fact that it lost its sacrosanct leader, late Minister of Defence Gojko Susak, still has a significant role - has formulated a slogan which was recently launched by President Tudjman himself: Better International Sanctions than Loss of National Pride. Namely, the HDZ authorities have brought the country into such a situation from which - no matter how paradoxical it may sound - only international sanctions can save it. The experience of Serbia (FR Yugoslavia) is valuable in this respect and, it seems, that there is a stream within the ruling party, which will not shrink from using it. Since the war and the UNTAES mandate are over and the whole state territory has been reintegrated, the HDZ has lost two important trump cards which helped it bring the public together: the threat of war and the need to unite the country. Talks about "communist heritage" as the "source of all evil" have been used so much that they are no longer convincing from the present point of view. Namely, most citizens think that perhaps it is true that they did not enjoy more freedom under communism, but they are sure that their life was better and they themselves better-off.

Sanction of the international community would therefore be a salvation for the present regime as it would then have someone to point its accusing finger at. The international community, which wants to break a small and proud nation for the sake of its own interests, could be then accused for all the misery and troubles that Croatia has to endure, with a large portion of its population living on the verge of poverty, the destroyed economy and dramatic social conditions. Being in control of the media, especially television, in case sanctions are imposed the ruling party would mercilessly manipulate that fact accusing the opposition along the way for cooperating with those who have pushed the country into isolation and economic collapse. If it only had the necessary strength, self-confidence and elementary sense of responsibility, the opposition would accept the American invitation making it clear to the public that it was going to Washington with the intention of making its hosts see how harmful the sanctions would be for the Croatian democracy. Anything else would be a miss. That is why a paraphrase of one Tito's thought follows as an inevitable conclusion on the activities of the opposition in Croatia: a ruling party with an opposition like the one in Croatia, doesn't have to worry about its future.

DRAGO HEDL