Two days before the Elections

Results Certain, But Not the Denouement

AIM Podgorica, 29 May, 1998

Last night at midnight, the pre-election silence began. In two days, more than 400 thousand citizens of Montenegro will go to 1087 polling stations all around Montenegro to vote for one of the 15 political parties which are offering "better life", "the truth", "love", "Serbdom", "courage and honesty", "the human road"... The Republican electoral commission will publicize the first official and incomplete results 36 hours after closing of the polling stations, that is on Tuesday in the afternoon, while OSCE mission scheduled a press conference for Monday at 15.00 hours, where it will pass judgement about regularity of the elections. The political parties will certainly have most of the results during the night between Sunday and Monday, and the one which sums up the largest number of votes in its favour will be certain to publish them immediately.

There are also those, such as the Socialist National Party (SNP) of former president Bulatovic, which are announcing victorious gathering of their supporters on Sunday at 20.00 hours already, immediately after closing down of the polling stations, because by that time their commissioners will have "reliable" indicators on their "certain triumph" based on monitoring of the process of voting!?

All serious public opinion polls, as well as information arriving from the field, but also pictures from pre-election promotive gatherings, show that the coalition "For Better Life" established by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the National Party (NS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), headed by the president of the Republic, Milo Djukanovic, which is the most important thing for its rating, is the candidate with the greatest chances to win parliamentary majority. In the past few days, especially after removal of federal prime minister Kontic and the illegitimate inauguration of Milosevic's protege Bulatovic at the post, the rise of the coalition "For Better Life" has become evident, so that what just a fortnight ago seemed unrealistic - that any one party would be able to win more than half the number of seats in the future parliament, now seems quite certain. However, votes and seats which two parties of ethnic Albanians (DUA and DS) win and the party of ethnic Bosniacs (SDA) should be added to the ones won by the mentioned coalition, because they are in an unformal coalition with Djukanovic's block.

The second party by force, Bulatovic's Socialist National Party (SNP), according to the most optimistic evaluations, can count on 30 out of the total of 78 seats in the parliament of Montenegro. This is an enviable number, but also the result which deprives this party of all levers of power, which will evantually cause dropping out of it and dispersion. Aware of this fact, that these are not just ordinary elections, but a struggle for survival, Bulatovic's followers are trying by all means to raise tensions and preserve at least the illusion of their former power. Yesterday, they held a session of the Main Board after which a customary statement was issued saying that they were certain that they were the winners of the elections, and that if they did not win, it would mean that the elections were not lawful and they would not recognise the results! At the same time the SNP accused the OSCE that it had taken sides with the ruling coalition, despite the fact that this mission had adopted all the received complaints of Bulatovic's party and together with the authorities, enabled these elections to be perhaps the first in FRY which will not be fixed through the ballot boxes and the electoral register.

The most uncertain situation is that of the third significant competitor, the Liberal League of Slavko Perovic, who tried to win popularity by criticising both Djukanovic and Bulatovic, although with his platform he is much closer to the former, which is corroborated by the fact that president of the Republic took away a significant part of Perovic's electorate. As tensions between Belgrade and Podgorica grew, the space for the "central and neutral road of the Liberals narrowed down, so that instead of the expected 15 or more per cent of the votes, they will have to fight for hardly 10 per cent. However, for Perovic it is much more important whether he will be the decisive weight on the balance without votes of which none of the opposed blocks will have the majority and therefrom be able to form the future government. If the Liberal League wins such a position regardless of the percentage of the votes it will collect, its risky solitary running in the elections will have some sense - if not, Perovic may be completely wiped out and become perhaps forever politically marginal.

A few parties with the so-called "Serb provenance" will also appear in the elections - from Seselj's Radicals to former Kilibarda's Nationals, but hardly any of them stand a chance to win the necessary number of votes to have a representative in the parliament, because Bulatovic's SNP will attract that part of the electorate. If this by any chance happens, Bulatovic will be able to rely on their deputies as his "next of kin".

Therefore, according to realistic evaluations two days before the elections, the only open question concerning the results is whether Djukanovic's coalition "For Better Life", along with its partners from the three parties of ethnic minorities, will win the majority of votes in the assembly of Montenegro, or whether they will lack at least a single vote of the self-sufficient Liberals. Bulatovic is aware that on 31 May, contrary to the October presidential elections, he has nothing to hope for and that the victory he is threatening his political opponents with is in fact the threat with an unloaded rifle. Probably his Belgrade patron, president of FRY Slobodan Milosevic, for whom the outcome of the crisis in Montenegro is more significant than that of the crisis in Kosovo, is also aware of it. Their possible defeat could be the mortal blow for Bulatovic very soon, and in a long run even for Milosevic himself. It is likely that the wave of democratic changes from Montenegro can splash against the shores of the other republic member of the Yugoslav federation. It is quite certain that by winning the elections Djukanovic will completely block Milosevic on the federal level. He would not be able to overthrow him, but he could block him. Such a denouement would probably intensify the current media and economic war between Podgorica and Belgrade, and it might easily develop into an armed and tragic conflict between the two republics, similarly like in former Yugoslavia.

That such fear is founded is best illustrated by the behavior of Bulatovic and his closest associates who are increasingly nervous as 31 May approaches. According to their declarations and reactions, they are starting to resemble more a terroristic than a political organization, instead of ballots they are more frequently advocating other methods - violent of course, for winning power. In this sense it will be very significant how the international community will act, which has so far, from the USA to the EU, offered full support to president Djukanovic. At the NATO summit in Luxembourg, Madelaine Albright demanded that Milosevic be warned because of his interfering in Montenegrin elections, a couple of days ago Gelbard phoned Djukanovic and offered him his full support, and yesterday he recieved expressions of support in writing from German foreign minister Klaus Kinkel. The NATO has also elaborated the possibility of intervention in Kosovo, so it is not unrealistic to expect that, in case of escalation of violence in Montenegro, it would make a similar plan for this region, too.

All things considered, two longest, most uncertain and according to many most fatal days in the modern history of Montenegro lie ahead of its citizens, because of the forthcoming elections which will decide not only which political and democratic nuance will prevail, but of extreme and terrible topics such as war and peace, life and death. This very fact shows how far this region is from true transition, and how deeply emerged it is into a pre-political state characteristic for all unfree societies.

Zeljko Ivanovic

AIM Podgorica