Serbian Progress - Backward

Milosevic's Spring Cleaning

AIM Belgrade, 25 June, 1998

After 17 hours he spent with Holbrook, Milosevic established that he had a free hand to reinforce his position in the country and liquidate all existing resistance to his regime. Even the potential one. This time, the media, the university and Montenegro are in focus of his interest.

"Unfortunately, experience teaches us that where Holbrook passes, democracy usually does not flourish. That is why I am afraid that the University, the media and Montenegro have had it", warned politicologist Ognjen Pribicevic, a few days ago at a debate at the press-club of the Belgrade Media Centre. The topic of the debate was removal of Kontic's government, and another participant, Stevan Lilic, Professor of the Belgrade Law School, also contemplated on the topic "Milosevic and the Americans", and established that president of FRY was indeed "the exclusive representative of interests of the USA in this region". Milosevic has always had the assistance of the USA, Lilic claims, when he was about to get political rivals in the state.

Two American diplomats were also present at the debate, and they visibly fidgeted on their chairs while they listened to declarations that "Milosevic was the man of the USA", and that nothing flourished behind Richard Holbrook, especially not democracy. Regardless of the truth of the thesis on Milosevic being the man of the USA, the fact remains that after 17 hours of talks, Holbrook did convince the president of FRY to start the dialogue with the leader of Kosovo Albanians Ibrahim Rugova. And that just a few days later a series of Milosevic's moves followed: refusal to permit broadcastion to the majority of independent electronic media, the attempt to end the autonomy of the university through the new law, illegal replacement of the federal government and imposing of Momir Bulatovic as the federal prime minister contrary to the will of Montenegro. All this, of course, leads to the conclusion that after 17 hours spent with Holbrook, Milosevic established that he had a free hand to reinforce his position in the country and liquidate all resistence to his power. Even the potential one.

With similar conviction - that he could do what he pleased in the country and to the extent he pleased, that his assemblies could violate all rules and laws, that he could change his own policy in any direction he chose without anybody having the right to protest - Milosevic had remained before many times before after meetings with foreign diplomats. Not long after he had changed under pressure from the west his policy towards the Bosnian Serbs and established the blockade at the river Drina, former Borba fell the victim and an avalanche started against other non-regime media. Soon after signing of the Dayton accords, Belgrade authorities (controlled by the Socialist Party of Serbia-SPS at the time) took over control of the opposition TV Studio B and turned it into their loyal subject.

In all these previous cases of violation of democratic principles, the West failed to stir too much trouble. It can even be said that Milosevic was regularly awarded for abandoning his previous national policy. From the "Balkan butcher" he was promoted into the "guarantor of stability and peace in the Balkans", and nobody was concerned too much about his authoritarian manners, actions and non-democratic rule in Serbia. Milosevic's calculation showed that the western governments would not turn against him as long as he had anything to offer as a concession. At the same time, western emissaries paid attention only to political bargains they could make here, not caring about anything else. They were not too concerned even about the fact that goals and results of their missions and sitting on Milosevic's sofa were most frequently interpreted and explained by his monopolistic television quite contrary to the actual situation - mostly as an instrument of maintaining Milosevic in power.

This time, in the attempt to use Kosovo as the smoke curtain, the regime in Belgrade is acting even more ambitiously than ever before. Milosevic intends to kill three birds with the same stone: to force independent electronic media all around Serbia to shut down, to convince the public that by the law which abolished autonomy of the university this institution will actually be given autonomy, and finally, by the illegal replacement of the federal government, to affect the result and the course of the elections in Montenegro. Prilosopher Svetozar Stojanovic claims that the regime is working against its own interest. "A cunning regime which is intelligently corrupt, and not stupidly corrupt, would never do so many things at one time", Dr Stojanovic observed a few days ago.

Why is the regime, at the time of the beginning of the dialogue with the Albanians in Kosovo, "packing" so many things together, and why is it in such a hurry, is something that can only be suspected. The haste is such that this time it could not pass unnoticed even by those who have on similar occasions guarded Milosevic's back or at least avoided to "patrol" Serbia while independent media were killed over here. In the State Department they observed that unexpected replacement of Kontic's government resembled a disguised coup d'etat and promised they would closely follow further developments in Podgorica. New tactic of Belgrade regime - to kill three birds with a single stone - was also noticed at the seat of the European Union with a comment that even from Milosevic, this was too much. In this connection, the outer wall of santions was mentioned, but the impression remained that the international community would not bother about the university and the media too much at the moment when the president of FRY has again turned into the factor of peace and stability in the Balkans. For the West it is important to have something it can haggle about with Milosevic.

For Milosevic it is important to have something to offer, that supply of concessions is never completely exhausted. The one and the other know very well that lifting of the outer wall of the sanctions implies true democratization, and this again implies primarily Milosevic's departure from power. However, as long as there is anything to trade off, the West will be in no hurry to complete this job. And Milosevic even less.

Many analysts see reasons for such Milosevic's ambitions primarily in the proportions of concessions concerning Kosovo which will follow and which were subject of the alleged trade with Holbrook. Richard Holbrook has departed having completed his job concerning Kosovo, the dialogue is beginning, and Milosevic has remained convinced again that he can do whatever he pleases. There are opinions, however, that synchronized action on stifling the media, the university and Djukanovic, should not be linked solely to the story on Kosovo. Allegedly, this is just preventive action and Milosevic's old habit to keep everything under control, in compliance with his so many times before expressed logic according to which "anything under 100 per cent control of the regime is an unacceptable and unpermissible risk".

The latest Milosevic's action has come at the moment when it has definitely become clear that FR Yugoslavia has become a country with three different systems in it: Serbian, Montenegrin and Kosovo-Metohijan. Although at first sight it seems that all the problems have begun because of the one in Kosovo, the main preoccupation of the president of FRY nevertheless appears to be what is going on in Podgorica. All things considered, appearance of terrorism in Kosovo fears Milosevic less than reforms coming from the direction of Montenegro. Victory of Milo Djukanovic in the presidential elections in Montenegro was so far the severest blow striken at Milosevic's regime in the past ten odd years of his rule, and a possible victory in the forthcoming parliamentary elections of the same political group would be for the official Belgrade equal to a catastrophe. Elimination of Djukanovic, on the other hand, would be a more lasting removal of the reformist option in this space. After that everything would be easier. Each next attempt of stifling media, universities or anything else would meet only with apathy and there would be less and less those who would even notice what is happening.

In what he is doing at the moment, Milosevic is to a considerable extent relying on apathy created the moment former Together coalition squandered the enormous energy for changes after a few months of street protests. Relying on this card seems to have induced the regime to replace its tactic of "intelligently corrupt authorities" with that of "stupidly corrupt authorities" by opening several frontlines at the same time. While the West claims again that it will keep the Belgrade regime under surveillance, many electronic media in Serbia and the autonomy of the university are slowly disappearing. Only those who are directly threatened are raising noise about the media, there is not even the critical mass of those whose hide is at stake at the students' protests. The "resistance movement" is visible only in Montenegro where there is fear that Holbrook and the other western emissaries might easily let the reforms go up in smoke in bargaining about Kosovo. The opposition which has been pushed to the margins is trying to be heard and it is shyly announcing the first street protest in Belgrade after a long time, making excuses in advance that it is not the repetition of the previous protests.

The proportions of apathy and the decreasing number of those who are ready to raise their heads and voices against Milosevic are perhaps best illustrated by the atmosphere prevailing in the past few days in lecture theatres at the university. A few years after the students' slogan which marked the hopeless war years - "As soon as I graduate, I will emigrate", at one of the gatherings a few days ago, a pessimistic and unfortunately precise forecast has prevailed: In the meantime nothing at all has changed in Serbia.

Nenad Stefanovic

(AIM)