Developments in Kosovo and Macedonia

NATO IS COMING

After last week's talks between Milosevic and Rugova, Macedonia is expecting relieving of interethnic tensions and a new step forward in rapprochement with Western security organizations. These are the most important goals of internal and foreign political strategy of this country.

AIM Skopje, 21 May, 1998

The fact that the leader of Kosovo Albanians Ibrahim Rugova, on the eve of last weekend, shared the proverbial Dedinje sofa with his mortal enemy, Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic, was received with stressed relief in neighbouring Macedonia. Although nobody expects that everything will go smoothly with the resolution of the crisis in Kosovo which has also seriously threatened stability of the Macedonian state, the first step forward was received with moderate optimism. The beginning of the dialogue, from the aspect of official Skopje, implies relaxing of the situation on the northern border, and therefrom relieving of interethnic tensions in Macedonia, partly generated by the Kosovo enigma. On the other hand, the manner in which this process will continue to develop suggests a more lasting and more intensive engagement of the international community, especially its military units in the field, which again guarantees that Macedonian diplomacy will be closer to attaining its ambition concerning rapprochement with Western security associations.

On the very same day when Milosevic and Rugova shook hands in Belgrade, the Macedonian government officially welcomed this meeting, stressing, of course, the role played in achieving it by the American administration and its envoy Richard Holbrook, but not failing to mention by the way that "the initial results correspond to Macedonian view of the solution of the conflict". The official Skopje, it should be admitted, from the very beginning supported the unconditional dialogue as the only way to resolution of the crisis in Kosovo and in this sense expressed support for all activities initiated by the international community. Although on this occasion the officials do not wish to additionally comment on the latest developments, one should be reminded of the fact that in the statements given so far by the highest political personages from among ethnic Macedonians, it was stressed that the status of Kosovo must be resolved solely within borders of FR Yugoslavia, and foreign minister Blagoj Handjijski very resolutely and on several occasions, said even more precisely "within Serbia".

Signs of rapprochement from the north were accepted by politicians from the Albanian ethnic environment mostly depending on the way they usually interpret the human activity called politics. Although they did not give official statements, leaders and activists of the Party of Democratic Prosperity, a coalition partner in the Macedonian government, it would be wrong to claim that they are against Rugova's decision to travel to pay court to Milosevic. The pragmatic chief of this party Abdurrahman Aliti, on several previous occasions, insisted on the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. This party, like the majority of the Albanians in Macedonia, believes that independent Kosovo is the optimum solution for the Albanians and that this option is the result of the natural right of the Albanians in Kosovo to self-determination, but it has also showed readiness to support every degree of autonomy their ethnic brethren may accomplish through negotiations. If things start downhill, and this was made clear in some statements addressed to the domestic and the international public and at gatherings organized in support of Kosovo Albanians, they would defend their interests again. Members of the Democratic Party of the Albanins, the party which ranks second by size and influence and which articulates interests of the Albanian minority in Macedonia and whose activities "internally" and "externally" are considered to be radical, were not too enthusiastic about the Belgrade summit, especially not with its possible range. Party leader Arben Xhaferi, in an interview to the pro-regime daily Nova Makedonija, qualified Rugova's "giving in" as a tactical victory of Slobodan Milosevic, since before the essential question of the conflict, he had "put up the barrier" in the form of the methodology of the talks. Xhaferi also expressed his hopes that the Yugoslav president had a wrong strategy and that everything he did was wrong. As concerning the range of the initiated process, Xhaferi is convinced that this is nothing but an attempt to buy time, but not just of both parties concerned, but also of the third party. Apart from Rugova and Milosevic, allegedly the Americans are also trying to buy time.

It is interesting that, apart from Xhaferi, hardly anyone of the serious political subjects assesses the newly established situation from the aspect of victory or defeat of the two main protagonists. It is mostly believed that it is their business and that both Rugova and Milosevic will have to make a big effort to convince their opponents that they have good intentions and that they are doing the right things. In this sense, next steps are expected which will be taken parallelly with the announced negotiations. Hardly anyone believes that the destiny of Kosovo will in the future be solely resolved at the "green table". The developments in the field concede their point, because neither the famous Liberation Army of Kosovo wishes to restrain itself from its radical methods, nor the Yugoslav authorities have the intention to withdraw the powerful and extremely enthusiastic police, military and paramilitary units. The assumption that both the Pristina and the Belgrade negotiating team will receive radical messages and additional arguments from the field in the form of the dialogue "over rifles", for Macedonia opens at least two important questions: the possible invasion of refugees and reinforcement of security of the border and integrity of state territory.

Both are present ever since the beginning of escalation of the current crisis in the north, but they are approached from opposed presumptions. Reception of possible displaced persons and refugees provoked a series of controversies ever since the notorious "corridor" for transfer of people to Albania which was promoted three months ago by Macedonian president Kiro Gligorov, and they have lasted to this day. Signs that a certain number of women and children from Kosovo have already found refuge in Macedonia became topical again last week in a piece of news carried by Reuters which relies on the minister of funance Taki Fiti. Fiti later denied the news, and government spokesman Zoran Ivanov repeated like who knows how many times before that officially there were no refugees in Macedonia and that the hosts had reported only about 100-200 guests from Kosovo. The methodology by which the authorities count the "guests" from Kosovo and persistently insist on the internationally accepted definition for acquiring the status of refugees leaves plenty of space for different interpretation. Similar is the case with Macedonian plans which refers to mass invasion of banished persons. Macedonian minister of defence, Lazar Kitanovski, declared for German television that his country is not economically capable of providing for a large number of people and that it might be able to "service" their transfer to third countries, but the ambassador in Washington, Ljubica Acevska confirmed to the journalists over there that Macedonia would "definitely have a large number of refugees", that it was making preparations for receiving them, and that "places where they should be accommodated were identified". Most of the Macedonians belive that it would be best if the forthcoming developments did not show who of Macedonian officials was right.

Regardless of how afraid official Skopje was of an invasion of refugees, it seems to be in proportion with the "positiove emotion" towards developments in respect to its security. The expectzed long negotiations accompanied by violent arguments from the field imply international military presence in the region. That is why Macedonia seems to have already achieved continuation of the mandate of UN peace forces which according to plan should have withdrawn on the last day of this summer. It is highly probable that the military part of UNPREDEP will in the future be intensified. In their plans for stabilisation of the region, NATO military experts are considering the possibility of reinforcing defensive capabilities of the Macedonian Army, but also of "transformation of Macedonian territory into a permanent drill camp of the NATO".

Some will not like the word "camp", of course, but that is wahat they are. Developments in Kosovo, if the initial optimism stirred up by the meeting of Milosevic and Rugova becomes justified and things do not get out of control, could do a lot of good to neighbouring Macedonia. Apart from easing of inter-ethnic tensions on both sides of the border, thanks to Kosovo, the process of rapprochement of this country with security institutions of the western alliance mught be accelerated, which is considered to be one of the most significant goals of foreign political strategy of Macedonia.

AIM Skopje

BUDO VUKOBRAT