CRUMBLING OF TUDJMAN'S POWER

AIM Zagreb, 19 May, 1998

It seems that the power of Franjo Tudjman is breaking apart at the seams. As soon as it is mended in one place another hole appears. As soon as he fixed personnel problems in Croatia, it cracked in Herzegovina. Death of Gojko Susak, the powerful minister of defence, and resignation of Hrvoje Sarinic, just as powerful chief of Tudjman's office, caused a crack at the top of government. Disappearance of the minister who controlled the army and Herzegovina introduced some uncertainty in the army and commotion in the circles of power wielders in Herzegovina, who are suddenly left without influential protector, but also without a strict controller. Conditional resignation of Sarinic as well as departure of Tudjman's son from the post of secret police chief before that, resulted from the conflict about clearing up the big scandal in Dubrovnik Bank. The two of them supposedly demanded solution of this political-financial large scale scandal and punishment of all the persons involved including Ivica Pasalic. They have supposedly stated their demands in the extreme manner: either us or him.

But it seems that Tudjman succeeded once again to interrupt crumbling and falling apart of his personnel pyramid. He saved all his men (except those who passed away) and established a new equilibrium between conflicting factions. He solved the personnel puzzle according to the same principle at "court", in the party and in the Government. Their peaceful coexistence is based on mutual benefit, involvement of Pasalic in Dubrovnik scandal would not be investigated, and the chief Tudjman's administration officer additionally strengthened his position - he was nominated "regular special member" of the central committee for national security, body which directly controls the most secret state affairs. Although he claimed that he was tired and wished to return to teaching, Miroslav Tudjman indirectly returned to politics, becoming the member of the council for strategic decisions and immediately afterwards was sent to Mostar on a special assignment, to pacify Herzegovina and impose Tudjman's candidate at the meeting of HDZ for BiH.

Two new vice presidents were brought to the reconstructed top of the ruling party, former prime minister Nikica Valentic, who is becoming more active and who is now known as one of the leaders of the moderate faction, and the eternal Vladimir Seks, constant aspirant for the post of HDZ right faction leader. The vacant position of Susak was taken by Andrija Hebrang, former minister of health, politically very strict and very unpopular in among the public for his deeds in the field of health care. He has gained President's complete confidence since he began to cure him intensely. President is tied to his doctor, but a great political and psychological similarity also exists between them. They both have left-wing origins but are presently extremely right oriented. It is assumed that Hebrang's promotion for minister of defence could be an introduction into the next step - it is becoming more evident that Tudjman is preparing him to become his successor. Milan Ramljak, Ph. D. in law, new minister of justice, is supposed to be the weight on the pro-European and moderate side of the balance. Former ambassador in Vienna enjoys great popularity among the political public.

The personnel rip at the top of Croatian power is mended once again, but the new harmony does not have a defined political framework (if hiding of urgent problems is not considered as politics). Tudjman's personnel patchwork cannot be long lasting because not a single question which is tormenting Croatia and which caused quarrels and separations was solved. Seks said that this would be the politics of "refreshed continuity". This certainly is continuity but freshness seems quite faded. Keeping all his men, only somewhat differently arranged, without any new personnel, the Croatian President showed that everything remains unchanged. There are no changes, no announcement of new politics. This time again, he showed neither willingness nor capability to face deep cracks in political, economic and social reality of Croatia. But the new personnel idyll based on political autism, broke down on the very first test, less than two days after it had been established. At the meeting of HDZ BiH in Mostar, it was shown that Tudjman's power is worn-out, and that the glue which he is applying to fix it is becoming less efficient.

The "sister party" as it was for the first time called at the Mostar Convention refused to elect Tudjman's candidate. Refusal of obedience happened during election of the party leader. For quite some time it has already been evident that Bozo Rajic, former president, hard-core nationalist who opposed co-operation with the Bosniacs, had to withdraw. Long discussions took place in order to find his successor, Croatian president twice met with numerous delegations of Croats from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Just before the convention, the choice was made that it should be Bozo Ljubic, Federal minister of health, a physicial until recently unknown to the public, a native of Siroki Brijeg, i.e. Herzegovina, but who has lived in Sarajevo for years. Assumingly he is close to the attitude of Kresimir Zubak, which can conditionally be considered as pro-Bosnian. Other factions of the HDZ were not satisfied with this solution, so in Mostar, under dramatic circumstance, Ante Jelavic, Federal minister of defence was elected. Although he is considered to belong to the extremist Herzegovina option, the international community claims that it will be possible to co-operate with him.

Such an outcome could not be prevented even by the decisive declaration about Ljubic was Tudjman's candidate. A numerous delegation of prominent men sent from Pantovscak to Mostar was of no help either, nor could Miroslav, Tudjman's son, wo has numerous connections in Herzegovina owing to his frequent visits with Susak to this region as the leading Croatian secret agent. Reliable sources claim that Herzegovinians threatened with demonstrations in Siroki Brijeg and allegedly even with a military coup d'etat. Some HVO generals voted for Jelavic, claiming that this was the will of the people, and sent a message to Tudjman saying that he was surrounded by bad informers. Tudjman's couriers from Zagreb tried to insure election of his candidate by dramatic appeals and procedural tricks. Although these means had always been reliable so far, this time they could not help. So, Ivic Pasalic, acting as Tudjman's special envoy took the floor several times. He talked a lot about the needed unity and historical responsibility. He warned the participants of the convention that they had no right to endanger the unity of the Croatian people. He declared that "Only Croatian national unity and unity of the HDZ, as well as relying of the Croats from Bosnia and Herzegovina on Croatia can ensure survival of the Croats in BiH. If our national unity is destroyed, the national project will also be destroyed."

Not even all the big words and the lack of good taste in rererring to the deceased Susak, who would have turned in his grave, it was said, because Tudjman's orders were not obeyed, were not sufficient. Herzegovina denied Tudjman its love. Even in his until recently strongest bastion, it was shown that his power is losing persuasiveness and strength, and that his charisma is fading. Zagreb has always determined the politics and personnel up to this moment, for the first time HDZ BiH refused to obey the instructions. Jelavic is the first president of this party elected without the support of Zagreb, moreover against Tudjman's will. Refusing to withdraw his candidacy, as he was demanded to do, he directly opposed "the President of all the Croats". Although some guesses can be heard that disobedience in Mostar was only a performance planned to deceive the international community, similar to what had once been attempted in Pale, this does not seem probable. Tudjman's name is not to be used in vain. The Croatian president does not allow disobedience, not even pretended one: he would never accept such plots. The conflict in Mostar was not invented, but perhaps conflicts are moving from the top of Croatian power to Herzegovina. Those who consider co-operation with the international community as an obligation and those who are in favour of turning their back to the world and who support Croatian self-isolation tried to test their strength against each other in Mostar.

Tudjman was warned a few times by some of his closest associates that it would be the wisest for him to get out of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as Milosevic had done. But the question is still open how he will react to disobedience in Mostar. Will he understand it as a chance or an insult and treason which he usually never forgives.

JELENA LOVRIC