MONTENEGRO vs. SERBIA AFTER MILOSEVIC'S COUT D'ETAT

War Drums

AIM Podgorica, 21 May, 1998

By relieving federal prime minister Radoje Kontic of duty, despite sharp opposition of the official Montenegro, Milosevic has caused the gravest constitutional political crisis in the federal state since it exists. The parliament of Montenegro, immediately after the express inauguration of Momir Bulatovic, the leader's loyal follower, was forced to react urgently in order to protect vital Montenegrin interests threatened by actions of the official Belgrade. All current and future decisions of the assembly of FR Yugoslavia were proclaimed illegitimate and unbinding for Montenegro, Svetozar Marovic simply formulated the majority will of the parliament of this republic.

Briefly, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, established on the foundations of the 1992 Zabljak Constitution practically ceased to exist. Togetherness of Serbia and Montenegro is nowadays reflected only in the existence of the same currency, and all other essential elements of operation of the federal state - pursuing external and internal policy, operation of the Army of Yugoslavia, directions of economic strategy, question of borders - are the main points of disunion of the members of the federal state.

In the federal state we nowadays have two political and economic systems and this does not seem to be sustainable for a long time. It seems that the chairman of Montenegrin assembly, Svetozar Marovic was right when, on the eve of the announced relieving Kontic of duty, he warned that this could be the end of legal Yugoslavia.

How the other, illegal FRY, will operate, in which Montenegro is excommunicated from decision-making, noone can predict. "FRY is brutally attacked from its very top by Slobodan Milosevic, his coalition partners in Belgrade and paid servants in Montenegro", said Milo Djukanovic, president of Montenegro, a a day after Momir Bulatovic had been nominated the new mandatary of the federal government. Djukanovic believes that the allegedly devoted supporters of Yugoslavia who organized the recall of prime minister Kontic were finally unmasked, and that by their latest act, Milosevic and his helpers in Montenegro have shown that they do not care for either Serbia or Montenegro.

It is evident that leaders of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), at least in public appearances, still cherish hope in the future of the joint state and that they are trying to make a political profit before the parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, nobody can claim with certainty what course developments will take. "I told the president of FRY that this kind od provocations in relation to Montenegro is the severest attack on the federal state and that by threatening equality of Montenegro in the federation Milosevic was leading this country towards something that muight be very risky for its future", said president of DPS Milica Pejanovic-Djurisic after return from Belgrade and unsuccessful talks with Milosevic.

But, apart from the struggle against the severest enemy in the election campaign - the Socialist National Party (SNP) - leaders of Montenegrin authorities are now forced to urgently build a rampart for defence against Bulatovic who is threatening Montenegro from the post of the federal prime minister. It is clear that Bulatovic has not been given the mandate of the federal prime minister all of a sudden just to take care of the dinar or social policy. The haste with which he was inaugurated as the federal prime minister leads to the conclusion that time is running short for Milosevic and that he is practically forced to make moves imposed on him. There is no alternative: moving Bulatovic to the federal government, just thirteen days before parliamentary elections in Montenegro, testifies that neither Milosevic nor his proteges in Montenegro believe in the possibility of their election success.

If this had not been true, the federal president would have peacefully awaited the elections on 31 May, and in case of Bulatovic's victory, many of his acute problems would have been resolved. Because, the victory of the SNP would enable Bulatovic, with a majority of votes in the assembly, to neutralise or declare null and void all the moves of the current Montenegrin authorities, and one of the already announced moves would be annullment of presidential elections and removal of Djukanovic from the duty Bulatovic himself had until recently discharged. In that case, Milosevic could have, with no serious problems, resumed control of Montenegro.

But, wishes are one thing, and reality something quite different. According to the latest polls, Bulatovic's SNP is more and more evidently lagging behind the three-member coalition of president Djukanovic and that is why Milosevic's move, although desperate, was practically the only possible one in the current situation. There is plenty of good reason in the haste to promote Bulatovic to the post of the new mandatary, because withdrawal to Belgrade - after the defeat in the elections - would not have meant much either for the federal president or the president of the SNP. Djukanovic and his supporters, apart from the post of the president of the republic would have taken power in the parliament, and it would have been impossible to infuence moves of Montenegrin authorities from Belgrade. As it is, Milosevic is hoping that he would artificially improve Bulatovic's rating by enabling the president of the SNP to appear, until the end of the campaign, from the position of power as one of the highest federal officials, in order to encourage his already disheartened supporters.

Another possible scenario conceived by Milosevic should not be forgotten either: a re-run of developments from January and in case of for him unfavourable election result, stirring up disorders in the Republic again - which would be a "justified cause" for introducing a state of emergency. This week's decisions of the federal parliament made Bulatovic, at least nominally, the most powerful political personage in the FRY - the person who signs the decision on introducing state of emergency. By moving to Belgrade, Bulatovic is liberated of his greatest opponent - his own fear - and there should be no doubt about his wish to avenge himself on Montenegro and Djukanovic for humuiliation in the past year. The decision, however, will not be made by Bulatovic's rage, but by the man who installed him - Milosevic.

To be absolutely truthful, except for political moves, Montenegro has no efficient mechanism of defence from the assaults of the official Belgrade. Especially if the head of the General Staff of the Army of Yugoslavia, Momcilo Perisic, will really be removed and Milosevic decides to apply the radical option - to take the Army of Yugoslavia out of its barracks. Although Montenegrin police is considerably better equipped and more numerous than in Januaty (it is assessed that about one thousand retired policemen have been re-activated), nobody in Montenegro is truly ready for a frontal showdown and bloodshed. It is rightfully believed that for the purpose of provoking chaos, Bulatovic and Milosevic would arm and use extremist supporters of the SNP, who think Djukanovic is a "separatist threat". Fear is also growing due to the announced big manoeuvres in Montenegro, planned for 6 June.

That is why eyes are fixed outside Montenegro in hope for efficient action of the international community which would dissuade Milosevic from the wish to subjugate, he smaller member of the federal state. Just a day after Kontic was removed from the post, head of the American delegation in Belgrade, Richard Miles, handed in a special message of the USA secretary of state, Madelaine Albright. Montenegrin television hurried to publish this piece of news in the first minutes of the daily news program, but failed to carry the content of the letter. Nevertheless, the next day, "from well-informed sources", it leaked that the USA had promised Djukanovic efficient support if Milosevic provokes violence in Montenegro.

This is, without dilemma, an encouraging sign for Montenegrin authorities, but experience of Croatia and Bosnia should not be forgotten: despite thunderous announcements, American "cavalry" arrived too late when hundreds thousand victims had fallen. That is why if Montenegrin authorities, in the interest of protection of Montenegro, really wish to neutralise pressure of Belgrade, apart from support of the international community, internal consensus of all democratic forces is necessary, immediately after the elections. The story will not end with publication of election results. Milosevic desperately needs to control Montenegro, because the wave of changes in Montenegro could in the foreseeable future unsettle his position, too.

The Montenegrin story might not end in the first days of June. Milosevic and his supporters in Montenegro will fight to the end, because for them this is the question of political survival, and perhaps even literally the question of life and death. And it is an established fact that desperate persons have nothing to lose. That is what may be dangerous for Montenegro.

Drasko DJURANOVIC

(AIM, PODGORICA)