The Milosevic - Rugova Meeting

A SYMBOLIC GESTURE OF GOOD WILL

AIM BELGRADE, May 15, 1998

On Friday, May 15, Ibrahim Rugova, leader of the Kosovo Albanians appeared alive, well and smiling at the door of the Belgrade White Palace after his first meeting with President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. Judging by Rugova's statement issued after the meeting, as well as the press release of the Milosevic's office, the talks were conducted in an atmosphere of mutual respect and understanding and shall be continued next week in Pristina at the expert level. The entire meeting, which was for both of them the first opportunity to see the rival "in the flesh", lasted less than an hour during which the two leaders exchanged the views and agreed on nothing.

Actually, no one expected anything more. All analysts agree that this meeting was in the first place a symbolic gesture of good will of both sides, rather than a beginning of true negotiations which are still uncertain. Serbia is still persistently refusing to accept foreign mediation (more specifically Felipe Gonzalez as an envoy of the Organizations for Security and Cooperation in Europe - OSCE), while the Albanians do not trust Milosevic to honour any agreement unless he is forced from the outside. On the other had, it is clear to everyone that this initial meeting came as a result of foreign interference - in other words - after five-days of earth-moving efforts of Richard Holbrooke. Out of those five days Holbrooke spent three travelling between Belgrade and Pristina until finally, with a stop-over in Tirana, he succeeded in scheduling the meeting. Although he did not manage to bring Gonzalez into play, he nevertheless once again confirmed his reputation of an "earth-moving diplomat" capable of pulling the negotiating process out of slime.

It must be admitted that even last Friday, a day before Holbrooke's arrival, that slime seemed deep and sticky like the muds of Drenica. Milosevic had flatly refused to even see Robert Gelbard, the official Clinton's envoy for former Yugoslavia, during his previous visit. The Contact Group rather unconvincingly threatened Serbia with sanctions, but found itself on the verge of disintegration. The deteriorated situation in Kosovo and daily killings did not promise any possibility of communication.

Still, thanks to Holbrooke, Milosevic and Rugova cordially shook hands in the entrance hall of the White Palace announcing a series of Albanian - Serbian negotiations. Rugova came to Belgrade with a delegation which included Mahmut Bakali, Fehmi Agani, Pajazit Mushi and Veton Suroi. Milosevic will send to the next negotiating round a state delegation naturally, with Ratko Markovic at its head, and also Tomislav Nikolic - a Radical and Vice-President of the Republican Government, Ivan Sedlak - Minister and Vladan Kutlesic - Vice-President of the Federal Government.

After the meeting Milosevic stayed behind in the White Palace, while the Kosovo delegation concluded its stay in Belgrade with a visit to the residence of the American Ambassador and meeting with representatives of the member countries of the Contact Group accredited in Belgrade.

How did Holbrooke accomplish this? Diplomatic sources claim that, same as before, this American diplomat did not come to Belgrade without a long stick. This time the stick was in the shape of Clinton's executive presidential decree which envisaged new and much harsher sanctions against Serbia than those of the Contact Group. This paper, where only a seal and the date of its entry into force were missing, contained a detailed list of property controlled by Serbia and the FRY to be frozen in case Milosevic refused to cooperate. The same document also included a long list of Serbian officials who would be prohibited to travel to the West. Finally, the FRY President was warned that a mechanism was put in place whereby the mentioned sanctions would be automatically adopted by the European Union and would be binding for all its members countries, including "Serbian friends" like Greece, Italy and France. Faced with coercion which could not be neglected, Milosevic agreed to receive Rugova personally and thereby end a farce which Ratko Markovic and his associates have been playing once a week in Pristina for over a month now.

Breaking Rugova's resistance against meeting with Milosevic without mediators was more difficult. Still, the situation he was faced with after the disintegration of his party and the possible loss of legitimacy within the Albanian movement, Rugova had to clutch at the offered straw. In exchange he was promised strong support of the American Administration, as well as steps which would be taken to forestall the extremists from diaspora who are rendering material and political support to the Kosovo Liberation Army (OVK). The Government in Tirana was informed of steps it should take so as to prevent the supply of arms over the border and to establish control in the North. In addition to some hundred international policemen who will soon start training and consulting their Albanian colleagues, Tirana was also recently granted a considerable line of credit by the International Monetary Fund. There are also rumours about the deployment of a number of Italian soldiers along the Albanian border.

There remains to be seen whether this will be enough to save the shaken authority of the Albanian leader. Two members of his negotiating team, Hidajet Hiseni and Bujar Dugoli have already resigned in sign of protest against Rugova's consent to meet with Milosevic without foreign mediators. Neither was Rexhep Cosija enthusiastic about the talks and stated that the Belgrade events will bring nothing good to the Albanians. The Kosovo Liberation Army still did not issue any official comment, but judging by their earlier statements, they will not accept any agreement between Milosevic and Rugova.

The greatest unknown is whether after Holbrooke's matchmaking, Milosevic and Rugova will be able to continue to pretend that they are living on different planets, shouting at each other that Kosovo is only Serbian, i.e. Albanian. "On several occasions Rugova announced that in his talks with Milosevic he would insist on independence, while Milosevic would undoubtedly keep repeating that Kosovo is in Serbia", said a high American official to this reporter immediately after the conclusion of Holbrooke's mission: "We have no guarantees that the talks will change things on the ground. More precisely, we expect a short-term deterioration as a result of the actions of those forces who think that their objectives can be achieved only by force. The main thing is that Milosevic personally undertook to work for the peaceful solution. In addition, it will go down in history that the United States of America arranged the first direct meeting of the two leaders at the moment no one else was able to". Our collocutor pointed out that America will continue to press Milosevic to accept Gonzalez and the opening of permanent OSCE offices in Yugoslavia.

Apart from America and Holbrooke personally, Milosevic profited most from this mission, politically speaking: not only has he most probably secured the lifting of the ban on foreign investments in the FRY (formal decision about this is expected at the Contact Group meeting in Birmingham), but has also avoided the introduction of new sanctions and has again become "the factor of peace and stability in the Balkans". For the time being, he gave nothing in return expect his word that he would not obstruct the dialogue. Only that part of the Serbian opposition which still thinks that it can beat Milosevic at Serbian nationalism will hold against him the fact that the "will of the people" expressed at the referendum, was disregarded. In any case, Milosevic has already managed to successfully sweep Holbrooke's mediating efforts under the carpet: the state media in Serbia have reported on his meeting with Rugova without mentioning either Holbrooke or Gelbard.

Still, Milosevic has no reason to jump for joy because of this short-lived success because for a long time to come Kosovo will remain a millstone around Serbia's neck and the price of maintaining Serbian administration in the region (expressed in human lives) is growing by the day.

Nevertheless, it will be hardest on Rugova who is put in a tight spot between the OVK and the bullying attitude of Belgrade. It is neck or nothing, and Rugova will pull through only if he eventually gets some concessions from Milosevic.

In other words, although caution is necessary when it comes to the short-term effects of Holbrooke's mission, there is no doubt that observed in the long-term this represents a step in a good direction, and a ray of hope which has appeared where there was no sign of it until recently. Naturally, it could turn out that it came too late, but neither Milosevic nor Rugova, nor Serbia nor Kosovo together will ever get another chance like this.

And while negotiations were going on in Belgrade, in Kosovo the fightings continued. The police points were attacked: the one near Srbica and the other in the commune of Istok. There were no casualties. In the bordering villages of Djakovica shooting went on for hours and there is no information about the casualties. In the meantime, Zarko Spasic, a worker in the Belacevac coal-mine, disappeared after he drove to work the miners on duty at 10:00.

Despite the fact that the deadline for handing over to the Albanian students the building of the Technical faculty is expiring today, eight days ago the Serbian students have locked themselves up in there and show no intention of leaving.

Dejan Anastasijevic

(AIM)