SERBIAN-ALBANIAN NEGOTIATIONS: NO SUCCESS GUARANTEED
AIM Pristina, May 14, 1998
Has the first and a right step towards the break-through of years-long Kosovo blockade been made? This is the question which many in Kosovo ask today after the statement made by the American envoy Holbrooke that the leader of Kosovo Albanians, Ibrahim Rugova would meet on Friday with President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia in Belgrade.
The first impression is that opinions differ considerably, for that matter. However, although a specific event is in question, i.e. an agreement on the beginning of the Albanian-Yugoslav dialogue, the latest split is actually only an addition to the well-known inter-Albanian divisions. The same ones who disagreed with the Albanian policy of resistance, pursued and successfully imposed by Ibrahim Rugova, are again in opposition.
Still, it should be said that the balance of political powers within the Albanian movement is not the same as it was several months or a year ago. Rugova is still behaving as nothing has changed, although it is possible to see with the naked eye that the situation on the ground is gradually taking the course which augurs the worst. The Kosovo reality is repression, conflicts, struggle of the Kosovo people for survival and, as it turned out in the last few months, it is not something to joke about. Others are trying to win the political ground, i.e. those offering a different option.
It however, seems that this option (OVK - The Kosovo Liberating Army and its backers) is not totally out of political game. It is nothing new that slack and huge diplomatic machinery started moving precisely because of the war psychosis or some kind of a pre-war atmosphere which started spreading all over Kosovo which is not spared even conflicts which resemble a true war or veritable battles in miniature. In that context, the agreement on the procedure for the Albanian -Serbian dialogue, although insufficiently known or unspecified or incomplete, could be observed from two angles. From the first one it is possible to discern an effort to make a break-through of the years-long political Serbian - Albanian and diplomatic blockade.
Such developments on the ground have taken a bad turn and it was necessary to do everything possible at that moment to at least alleviate them, if not bring them to a full halt. Observed from the other angle this agreement reveals that this effort was made as an ultimate measure to protect the hitherto Albanian policy, i.e. to control the erosion of Ibrahim Rugova's authority as its symbol. The fall of Rugova would made things much more complicated for the foreign diplomacy and create a new situation for President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. No matter how much he is accused of belligerency, it could not be said that he would welcome an opportunity to start a general war in Kosovo. In that context, the latest agreement should be observed as a result of a deal struck between bitter opponents with a view to keeping the basic situation and tug war under control.
The importance and scope of the latest agreement about Serbian-Albanian summit should be observed from this point, as well as everything that results from it, irrespective of all criticism, accusations and commendations of different Albanian political groups within the Albanian movement. If if turns out that the Agreement is all that has been achieved, and hopefully it will not be so, then it is only a starting procedure, i.e. a stage in the talks about negotiations. Naturally, it is not without significance, but even if it were much greater, judging from the experience of negotiations conducted during recent wars waged on the territory of former Yugoslavia, it is only a beginning and a lot of water will flow under the bridges of Kosovo before its end.
In any case, one should bear in mind that this procedure may become common practice which favours one side at a given moment, or at least makes that impression. However, it doesn't seem that it will essentially determine the direction for finding a durable solution. In this way each side can find in it something to its liking. The Americans were mediators in this process and they certainly had quite a job to do. As for the signatories on the Albanian side they can boast that they have been granted the possibility of securing the talks at the highest Yugoslav level, i.e. with Slobodan Milosevic himself. However, no political agreement will be reached if it is not a compromise. For years now the Albanian representatives have been insisting on the international mediation, of the USA in the first place.
Robert Gelbard and Richard Holbrooke have staked everything on their authority in order to clear the things up - they pressed both sides to agree to talks. However, there will be no foreign observers present at actual talks, which doesn't mean that they will not be somewhere in the background. If they just left, the two politicians would again quarrel and everything would go down the drain. There will be no neutral ground either. In his statement to the press, Holbrooke spoke about human and civil rights, about national equality in general, which will not satisfy the Albanians either. Still, on the other side, Milosevic can no longer speak about Kosovo as Serbia's internal problem, although a possibility is not excluded that he might again put forward Ratko Markovic, Vice President of the Serbian Government, to talk with the representatives of national minorities in Kosovo and come out with some statutory decisions on the local government in Kosovo.
The Albanians had their referendum already in 1991, and have ever since insisted on their demands for independence. The Serbs held their referendum only recently and also had to give up certain things. If the agreement is a compromise, and it obviously has to be, then observed politically and diplomatically, it could have been achieved several months ago. Actually, this kind of compromise was possible even before the decision on the Serbian referendum was reached.
Bearing in mind all the circumstances, there is an impression that the avalanche of the Albanian pros and cons are rather reactions to the general state of affairs in the Albanian "political life", then the expression of true feelings as regards the scope and importance of the Agreement. Vice-President of the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo Eqrem Kreyeziu thinks that Holbrooke's statement is very important. "We couldn't say that it made us happy, because the situation on the ground is hard and tragic, but this is good news. We were in favour of a dialogue, we demanded talks at the highest level so that we could se what was being done. We expect positive results. But, first and foremost we expect the easing of tensions on the ground on both sides", concluded Kreyeziu.
However, Bajram Kosumi, Vice-President of the Parliamentary Party of Kosovo, stated that the announced Rugova - Milosevic meeting was conceived as a beginning of a peace process, while in fact it was only a concession to Milosevic's policy so that the situation in this region might easily become dramatic. "The Albanian people is not ready to accept any diktat", clarified Kosumi. Kacusha Jashari from the Social-Democratic Party stated that both Milosevic and Rugova were forced to agree to a meeting, but that it nevertheless represents a beginning in the resolution of the Kosovo problem. Similar opinion was forwarded by Tadej Rodici, Vice-President of the Christian-Democratic Party who said that both sides had to give in and that one problem has been overcome, i.e. the claim that Kosovo is Serbia's internal problem, said Rodici stating his hope that the Albanian delegation would know how to defend the independence concept. Afrim Morina from UNIKOMB thought that the involvement of American diplomats was no guarantee that these negotiations would succeed, i.e. that the fact that no foreign mediator would be present at these talks was a first concession to the Belgrade top political leadership.
As it is known, the OVK has repeatedly declared, in its statements, that it would reject each agreement in the preparation of which its representatives are not involved. It has not yet directly reacted to the latest agreement on the launching of the negotiating process, but despite its stand on taking part in possible talks and inclination to use extreme means in the achievement of political goals, it should be borne in mind that none of its 47 statements ruled out the possibility of looking for political and diplomatic solutions and that the OVK has never totally gave up on political and diplomatic activity.
AIM Pristina
Fehim REXHEPI