MANIPULATIONS WITH THE RETURN OF THE SERBS AS A REMEDY FOR PROBLEMS

AIM ZAGREB, May 10, 1998

What was until now only a rumour and journalistic speculation has been openly said for the first time. Representatives of the international community, members of the Commission established pursuant to Article 11 (in charge of the implementation of the Erdut Agreement which regulates peaceful reintegration of Eastern Slavonia), have announced introduction of economic sanctions against Croatia for failing to develop a mechanism for the return of Serbian refugees and for the restitution of their property.

This was said in discussion held late last week in the American Embassy between representatives of the Croatian executive authorities, of the Serbian ethnic community in Croatia, as well as several opposition parties. The release issued after the meeting did not specify what sanctions could be in question, but only served to officially tell the public what it had already heard. Namely, to inform it about a decision of the international community to postpone "for an indefinite period of time" its participation at the Donors' Conference for the Reconstruction and Development of Croatia. But, even without this, it was known already common knowledge that this concerned the withdrawal of the European Union (which accounts for some sixty percent of Croatia's trade exchange) trade preferences.

Actually, according to some interpretations these preferences have already been frozen and were temporarily approved on the basis of Agreement on Cooperation with former Yugoslavia. In addition, even the regime-controlled papers do not hide the fact that European Union experts are already preparing a mechanism for the second round of sanctions against Croatia. According to unnamed diplomatic sources, these could include the introduction of visas (which was already speculated about several weeks ago because of a statement of the OSCE Chief in Croatia, which he later denied), and even sports sanctions. Allegedly, Tudjman has taken rather hard this latter possibility because he considers sports to be one of the most important missions of his state policy.

The Croatian reaction ensued immediately. The release of the Commission itself said that Croatian Foreign Minister Mate Granic promised the elaboration of "a new, improved procedure" for the return of refugees. And indeed, the Croatian Government announced its intention to come out with a changed version of the document on the repatriation of the Serbian refugees in two or three days. This did not come as a surprise because such a document had already been agreed with representatives of the international community. But was afterwards, by means of a transparent manoeuvre thwarted since it had been submitted to Parliament for debate which adopted unbinding "conclusions" instead of this document. Thus, the Government "was forced" to adopt a new document which was, as can be guessed, only a revision of what had been agreed with representatives of the international community.

Since Washington and Bruxelles reacted once already

• when late last winter the Croatian Government had issued its first document on the return of Serbian refugees - this time it was obviously assessed that the Croatian Government was playing games with and humiliating the international community. Recently, Klaus Kinkel sent an exceptionally harsh letter to Tudjman accusing him of doing "nothing" to regulate the regime of the return of refugees (which is not quite true because until now some 30 thousand Serbs have returned, and additional 40 thousand are already in the Dunav river valley). Kinkel's nervous reaction could be explained by the fact that there are still some 200 thousand refugees from the former Yugoslavia in Germany (whose return cannot start before those from the former YU Republics return to their homes).

The Foreign Ministry responded to Kinkel's letter the following day with a note of protest in which the German diplomacy was rebuked for its inappropriate tone and assuming the right to address a head of a state. However, the German colleagues were unofficially informed not to pay too much attention to Zagreb's reprimand because it was, anyway, intended more for the domestic political public. After all, the same could be said for the return of Serbian refugees which certainly do not wish to come back in great numbers (according to some estimates there are about another 30 thousand of them who have such an intention), so that this was all intentionally used like a red rag to a bull.

It was calculated, not without ground, that this statement would serve most easily to homogenize the public to which the anti-Serbian feelings come naturally, and then it would be much easier for the HDZ to handle the real problems which are undermining its positions (bad economic and even worse social situation, spectacular cases of economic crime which have resulted from the cooperation of newly-emerged capitalists with their sponsors from the top level state bodies). This is most probably the light in which one should observe Tudjman's speech delivered after the announcement of sanctions against Croatia, in which he again harshly attacked the international community. He even accused it of wanting to cause a split within Croatia which would be the cause of a new Jasenovac or Beliburg, but that it should forget all about it - for which, naturally, he was frenetically applauded to - and, finally that it had concocted a plot to ruin Croatia.

However, he added, Croatia had its friends in this world who knew that it was the only stable state in this region. And that was guarantee enough that no sanctions would be imposed against it. Making a distinctive differentiation between the "devils" of the world, Tudjman has, nevertheless, left the door ajar for the continuation of cooperation with the international community regarding open issues, although he added to it a seemingly unbending stance regarding the return of the Serbs. As often before, he said that there could be no mass return of the Serbs and that Croatia would only open its doors to those Serbs who already live in Podunavlje and those who were on the (border) "line of the Croatian state". This was meant to leave the impression that the Croatian state top leadership would not crawl before the international community even under the threat of sanctions, but would always consistently defend its basic national interests.

However, this peacock-like boasting attitude is nothing else but open manipulation with the public, since the international representatives have put an ultimatum to Croatia demanding the return of "all Serbs". The fact that they had to repeat it several times really threw them off their balance this once. In its press release, the Commission established pursuant to Article 11, stated that it was not in favour of "mass" return nor "return over night". But, it considered absolutely necessary for the Government to establish a mechanism enabling unhindered return of the Serbs to their homes, restitution of their property, as well as granting returnees the right to legalize their Croatian citizenship without forcing them to apply for it again. In any informationally organized country this would have stopped speculations as to what kind of return the international community really wanted. But one should not give one's right arm that it will be so in Croatia.

Putting Serbian refugees in the grindstone of the HDZ's propaganda has a deeper meaning. The Croatian "national revolution" was initiated with the ambition of attaining state independence, toppling communism, joining Europe...But, its main fuel was, nevertheless, "the Serbian threat" (which was realistically present to a certain extent, but at the same time warmed up, provoked and blown out of proportion just as much as it was necessary to carry out mass national mobilization).

Now that the Croatian "national revolution" is undergoing its greatest crisis ever, its leaders obviously need the Serbs so badly that they are making them up from lies, fiction and manipulations. But, like in the famous poem "the roads will crave for the Turks"...that time can never come back.

MARINKO CULIC