Pre-Election Forecasts

WHO ARE ELECTION ABSTAINERS

Banjaluka, May 11, 1998 (AIM)

Official preparations have started for another elections in the Republic of Srpska. If everything proceeds according to the plan, elections should be held on September 12 and 13, 1998 for the President of the Republic, a member of the B&H Presidency, deputies to the B&H Parliament and delegates to the National Assembly of the Republic of Srpska. Registration of parties and candidates has begun according to somewhat changed OSCE rules.

Expectations of political protagonists and those of the broader public differ. Political participants in these elections are making assessments of the situation, projecting electoral activities and hoping to win. Analysts and political officials are still keeping their projections secret, as there are not enough relevant indicators for more reliable forecasts of election results.

Still, as usual before the elections, there are many open questions. Among major ones is the turnout of the voters. It is also important whether the social changes and frequent elections have increased or reduced the willingness of voters to carry out their "civil duty". Of no less importance is whether political participants in the pre-election activities are taking account of the voters' patience and willingness to take part in these elections.

Namely, analyses of election campaigns organized to date have shown that the majority of political parties and independent candidates were interested in voters only during the election campaigns as it turned out that after the proclamation of electoral results, citizens were no longer their concern. In addition, these campaigns have also demonstrated that after the announcement of election results the political behaviour of their protagonists are conditioned by the number of votes they have won as they consider that the voters have only carried out their "civil duty" and that they are in no way indebted to them. And it goes on like that until the next electoral campaign.

Perhaps this is the basic reason for increased abstention. It should be remembered that at 1996 general elections the turnout was 1,087,572 voters; at local elections in September 1997 - 918,584 voters and at parliamentary elections in November 1997 less than 792,994 voters. The question remains how was it possible for the majority of towns recorded a high percentage of voters at the local elections in September 1997: Banjaluka - 88.37 percent, Derventa - 87.32 percent, Doboj - 88.16 percent, Bijeljina 87.14 percent, Brcko - 90.97 percent and Srpski Brod - 90.15 percent.

The question of the participation of voters at elections has again become topical now, before the forthcoming September elections, since the registration of parties and candidates has begun. The public would like to know how many of their fellow-citizens will turn out at these elections, as well as how they feel towards them. This question is all the more important if we bear in mind that in the process of social changes (introduction of political pluralism) the election turnout lost its previous character of "a manifestation of special social value" and "a possibility of public expression of personal loyalty to party officials and programmes", as it was previously qualified by the party propaganda. In the past a possible abstention was treated as suspicious behaviour and was publicly condemned, and participation in the elections was openly promoted and encouraged.

However, times have changed so that abstention is now tolerated same as the indecision of voters or participation in the elections. This is not the case with one category of citizens who always felt that the failure to turnout at the elections might make it harder for them to solve their essential problems (housing problem, employment, subscription of shares, etc.).

On the basis of experience from previous elections it is to be expected that at the September 1998 elections the turnout will reach at least 75 percent, with as much as one fourth of abstainers. However, the research does not corroborate this prognosis. A survey carried out in mid March in Banjaluka showed that 16.33 percent of the interviewees "doesn't know for whom to vote" and 8.02 percent "do not intend to turn out for the elections".

For the record, studies of the electoral participation carried out so far underline that the percentage of those who plan to vote increase as the elections approach. In other words, this could mean that the turnout of the electorate at the forthcoming parliamentary elections (scheduled for September next year) will be satisfactory. However, it was also established that electoral abstainers come from specific social groups which points to the influence of social changes and democratization of social relations on this sphere of life and behaviour of the population.

The analysis of the interrelationship between electoral turnout (abstention) and social status and personal characteristics gives quite another picture of the situation and attitude of the electorate towards the elections.

Research results have revealed that the percentage of abstainers is about 15%, but that there are differences depending on the basic characteristics of interviewees. The highest percentage of abstainers can be expected among younger population, and the lowest percentage among working population. For example, it was observed that each fifth 25 years old voter (21.17%) doesn't want to vote, while in the age group between 26 and 40 years there are only 7.39% abstainers.

In addition, it was noticed that a much higher percentage of abstainers can be expected among voters who were or still are refugees (18.53%), in contrast to 9.02 potential abstainers among resident population.

Another important information is that election abstainers are frequently students (23.88 percent) or the unemployed (20.65 percent), while on the other hand, the social sector employees are most loyal to the election tradition and have no more than 5.95 abstainers among them, and the pensioners only 7.61 percent.

Such results unmistakably point that political protagonists should have full insight in the electoral behaviour of the voters as it is certain that some of them do not consider electoral procedure as a matter of their personal prosperity or activity in which they should partake. The question is how much of this can be attributed to the age of the population in question and what consequences can this have on the political parties and their candidates.

Observed from the opposite angle, i.e. the angle of willingness of voters to take part in the elections, the obtained research results have shown that the hitherto model of social behaviour and personal involvement still strongly influence the activity of certain population segments, especially their readiness to participate in the elections. It is obvious that the voters in this way too, demonstrate their social position and competence by expressing that they are a part of important political decision-making processes.

Still, regular empirical research and more complete analyses are required for more precise and reliable answers to these questions, especially when it comes to forecasting voters' behaviour at the elections.

Mr Dragoljub Krneta (the author is an independent analyst)