Montenegro and Kosovo

MONTENGRO IN THE KOSOVO VICIOUS CIRCLE

AIM Podgorica, 10 May, 1998

Belgrade regime is closing the bloody vicious circle exactly where the political star of Slobodan Milosevic has first started to shine - in Kosovo. Media, domestic and foreign are reporting every day about the dead and the wounded on the Serbian-Albanian border, but also about a real war in the interior of Kosovo.

Until recently, Montenegro was indirectly drawn into the crisis in Kosovo: just in the course of the first few days after the conflict had broken out, more than five thousand refugees sought refuge with their relatives and friends in Montenegro. There were Albanians, and Montenegrins and Serbs among them, all alarmed by the possibility of escalataion of the bloodshed. But, the dark shadow of Kosovo is slowly approaching Montenegro. On Thursday, 7 May, the first victim fell on Montenegrin territory. In the bordering belt with Albania, in the region of Plav - in an armed conflict between the border guards of the Army of Yugoslavia and a group of Albanians who had tried to illegally cross the border - a soldier Gyula Dorin was killed.

Montenegrin authorities, contrary to the previous times, are nowadays bitter Milosevic's opponents and they are feverishly trying not to be involved in the bloody conflicts in Kosovo. "If in any way the Army of Yugoslavia is driven into a corner by the policy of Slobodan Milosevic, we will immediately consult all the state authorities of Montenegro and prevent its involvement in internal political conflicts on the territory of FRY and prevent interference from (the territory of) Montenegro in such conflicts", Milo Djukanovic was quite clear at a recent press conference in Podgorica. The president of Montenegro is obviously trying to warn the military commenders, but also the authorities in Belgrade that they must stop sending Montenegrin soldiers to military barracks in Kosovo. Ever since Milo Djukanovic was elected president, Montenegro has almost no influence on behavior of the Army of Yugoslavia. Milosevic obviously has no intention to convene sessions of the Supreme Defence Council while Djukanovic is in power, and in the meantime, Montenegrin recruitment centres, directly controlled by Belgrade, are very diligently doing their jobs: evaluations say that there are almost 3,000 (!) Montenegrin recruits in Kosovo, including those who were sent there in the beginning of March.

This is exactly the reason why the current Montenegrin authorities are trying to influence Milosevic by all possible means, if in no other way, indirectly, to resolve tensions in Kosovo by a dialogue. During Djukanovic's recent tour of Western-European countries, the Montenegrin president stressed whenever he had the occasion that the vicious circle in Kosovo can be resolved only by negotiations and with mediation of the international community. His statement about recruits from Montenegro and Kosovo is just a clearly and from the top level formulated initiative which was started by leadership of some opposition parties, among which the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is nowadays in the coalition with Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).

The powerful Milosevic's machinery, however, is not idle either. Djukanovic's initiative is marked as treacherous in Belgrade. Milosevic's loyal allies in Montenegro - Bulatovic's Socialist National Party (SNP) - are turning the keen edge of its campaign towards the question of Kosovo, trying to stir up patriotism, but also to ensure additional political points for themselves. That is why in Montenegrin campaign Kosovo is the topic concerning which all significant political parties which have ambition to win seats in the parliament must declare their stand.

But, after the experience of the wars in Croatia and Bosnia, it seems that Montenegrin public opinion is not inclined to wage war as before. Recent polls which were independently from each other made by two agencies (Damar from Podgorica and Partner from Belgrade) show that an average Montenegrin thinks that Kosovo must not be given the status of a republic in the federation, but also that Montenegro must in no way be involved in the conflict or a possible war in Kosovo. Montenegrin authorities, therefore, enjoy support of their public opinion in the effort to prevent or at least obstruct involvement of Montenegrin recruits or reserve forces in the drama in Kosovo.

But, in the global process of resolving the problem of Kosovo, Montenegro has for years now been reduced to its "constitutional measure" which permits it to appeal and protest, but not to make decisions. The first challenge is still awaiting Montenegro especially if resolution of the Kosovo tangle moves to the level of Yugoslavia. The idea about Kosovo as the third federal partner in FRY is mentioned with suspicion in Montenegro again. This idea is not new, it was re-activated by Mahmut Bakali, a man of influence whose ideas are attentively observed by Western diplomats, which leads to the conclusion that this is a proposal which is not rejected abroad.

Director of Podgorica Centre for Democratic Action, Srdjan Darmanovic, believes that the idea of reconstruction of the federation is not just in the domain of speculations, in view of the evident irreconcilableness of the initial stands of the Serb and the Albanian parties. "Although the international community does not take the stand of an arbiter but that of a mediator, it seems to me that it would not be completely hostile to the idea of resolving the problem of Kosovo as the third federal unit", says Darmanovic for AIM, noting that this would open the problem of defining the position of Montenegro within the Federation.

"I think that the current Montenegrin authorities would not be too enthusiastic about such an idea, because on the federal level, a third factor would appear and in the Chamber of the Republics we would have the situation of 'two to one'. This would, as it usually happens in politics, create a constant possibility of outvoting in the federal assembly and it would practically open space for new tensions. But, it seems to me that the Montenegrin authorities will have great difficulties in finding an adequate mode concerning the ultimate resolution of the problem of Kosovo, especially in the current structure of relations on the federal level", Darmanovic concludes.

Miodrag Vukovic, vice prime minister in the Montenegrin government and a high official of the DPS, says that the current Montenegrin authorities, within their possibilities, will not agree to constitutional reconstruction of FRY. "By the 1992 constitution, foundations of relations between Serbia and Montenegro were established, as Montenegrin citizens declared their will at the referendum, and nobody has the right, nor does our party wish to do it, change the current position of Montenegro in Yugoslavia behind the backs of Montenegrin citizens", Vukovic is resolute.

Since 1992, Montenegrin authorities, led by the current reformists, of course, have voluntarily renounced a part of their republican rights and duties in favour of the federation. But, in the past year, Djukanovic's reformists have tried to reinforce the position of Montenegro and to wrench themselves free from Milosevic's disastrous policy. If a real war starts in Kosovo, and if after Montengrin parliamentary elections, Djukanovic's reformist coalition remains in power, with no doubt Montenegro will do its best to run away from that war and finally turn to itself. Perhaps, by disassociating itself from the conflict, it would help Kosovo the most, but also to the fragile democratic opposition in Serbia which is in favour of a dialogue with Kosovo Albanians. Because, losing Montenegro for Milosevic would be a defeat which would strongly shake up his power.

Drasko Djuranovic

(AIM Podgorica)