Banja Luka-towards the campaign

Heading Towards the Election Campaign

SPRING START OF THE AUTUMN ELECTIONS

AIM Banja Luka, 27 April 1998

Although there is still quite a lot of time left until the scheduled September elections in BIH, all the parties in Republica Srpska (RS) have already started a real election campaign. One could actually say that after a short pause, the 1996 election campaign has continued.

Two facts convenient for an accelerated election campaign are as follows: the first is the approximately even relation of forces in the parliament between the insignificant majority which supports the government of Milorad Dodik, and the opposition formed by the Serb Democratic and the Serb Radical Parties; and the second is that two groups forming the majority - one including parties from RS (the Serb National Union, the Socialist Party and the Independent Social Democrats) and the other consisting of parties from BiH Federation (the Coalition for United and Democratic Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Social Democratic party of the former Communists of Nijaz Durakovic).

Besides the political struggle against the opposition the three ruling parties from RS are starting to fight among themselves for future voters. These three parties can look for support only among their voters, because it is hardly probable that anyone from among the opposition voters would change sides in the September elections. A different distribution of voters might occur among the supporters of the Radicals and the SDS, due to some activities both of the RS government and the international community which are causing national tensions.

The only group of voters whose change of attitude could be expected is 70,000 people whose political representatives did not make it to the Parliament in the previous elections and probably will not take part in the September election campaign.

Practical political activities of parties are quite diverse. Most of the parties are making use of the existing space in media for their political promotion. The most frequent form are regular press conferences for expressing more or less successfully reactions to the actual political events or Government actions. The ruling parties in RS are doing this with balanced criticism of the Government taking care not to shake it because this would not suit them. Even the Party of Independent Social Democrats led by the actual Prime Minister participates in this. Besides, they are trying to win points by supporting the Kosovo policy of Yugoslavia and Serbia and by increasingly expressed demands to the international community to solve the problems of promised but unfulfilled support for renewal and reconstruction, problems of passports, crossing the Croatian border and decreasing the pressure on return of refugees.

Accelerated creation of "party infrastructure" is another important aspect of the party activity. The Serbian National Union led by Biljana Plavsic, the President, and the Independent Social Democratic Party of Milorad Dodik, the Prime Minister, are especially active in this respect. Owing to social power and the improved reputation of their leaders, these parties have recently founded or revived numerous local organisations, approaching significantly "the three big ones"

• the SDS, the Socialists and the Radicals, who have accomplished this task two or three years ago.

Although their goal is the same, these parties have different tactics in this field. While Biljana Plavsic continuously gathers mostly the former members of the until recently ruling SDS, Dodik and his party intellectuals most frequently gather experienced directors and managers. Besides, they do not restrain from coalitions with certain non-parliamentary parties mostly outside Banja Luka, "covering" thus the geographical space. The Social Democrats have recently signed a "memorandum of co-operation" with the Democratic Party from Bijeljina led by its ideologist Ljubisa Savic Muzer, current chief of the "uniformed police" of RS, as well as with the Democratic Centre Party from Trebinje led by Dargomir Grubac,who was quite close to Momir Bulatovic a few years ago when the latter was the untouchable leader of Montenegro. Both parties were members of the former Democratic Patriotic Block of Predrag Radisic, the coalition which fell apart immediately after the elections two years ago, although it had two representatives in the RS National Parliament. Both parties, together with parties of Dodik, Plavsic and others were members of the Co-ordinating Committee which supported Biljana Plavsic in her "resistance to Pale".

The right block, the SDS and the Radicals, are not idle either and they are all awaiting their chances. They believe their chance is in the increasing nationalistic tensions, which are, according to their opinion produced by the international community's aggressive approach to the return of refugees. These parties are just learning to bomb the Government from the comfortable position of the opposition.

The recent attempt of Dragan Kalinic, chairman of the RS National Assembly, to convene a session of the National Assembly at a short notice in Doboj and organise reconstruction of the Government, if not to destroy it, was one of the unsuccessful propagandist action. But, since only 34 members of the Parliament appeared (and right opposition parties in RS have the total of 39 members) this attempt returned to the convener of the session as a specific boomerang. He can now do nothing but contemplate whether he is able to keep gathered all the SDS and Radicals' votes or something is changing in this context. It is certain that the forthcoming SDS convention to be held by the end of April or beginning of May will partly answer the question of further leadership and at the same time define the attitude towards the new political reality in RS, and the elections.

The most unknown fact in the whole story of the electoral campaign is the Socialist Party. Unexplained but fast decrease in number of votes from 140,000 in September to about 75,000 in November, the situation in Kosovo and the coalition of the Socialists, the Leftists and the Radicals in Serbia, are introducing too many uncertainties for any estimation. Still, the Socialists have much more power than would be expected by nine representatives they actually have in the parliament, owing to the fact that they acted as the weight which tips the balance in all the combinations when voting for the Government.

The most important goals for all the parties at September elections will be to win the positions of the member of BiH Presidency from RS, the post of the president of RS and that of the chairman of RS Parliament. Election of representatives in joint BiH institutions will only be a result of these three electoral levels.

Dejan Novakovic