1998 Elections - Before the Beginning of the Campaign

WHO WILL BE THE ONE?

All participants in the Montenegrin electoral race are confident about their final success. Nevertheless, someone's illusions will be shattered in the evening of May 31 after the voting slips have been counted.

AIM Podgorica, April 24, 1998

Although there are only forty days until the beginning of the "historic" early parliamentary elections in Montenegro, the political rivals do not seem to be in a hurry. The political fronts have just been established: the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the Popular Party (NS) and the Social-Democratic Party (SDP) have officially formed a coalition. In this way, Svetozar Marovic, ideologist and strategist of the ruling DPS, has rounded off his pre-election concept: a "reformist coalition" has been placed into the political centre, i.e. in a position of a civil alliance of sorts, thereby placing the SDA, as well as two Albanian parties and the Liberal Alliance, to the position of national parties. Momir Bulatovic's SNP and Bozidar Bojovic's SNS have already positioned themselves as Serbian ultra-nationalist parties.

On the micro-level, i.e. within the coalition, Marovic has placed his party in the centre, between two diametrically opposed political options and parties: the pro-Serbian National Party and the pro-Montenegrin Social-Democratic Party of Montenegro. By forming a coalition with parties which have their deputies in Federal Parliament, i.e. which formally recognize the federal state, the DPS has managed to best refute the claims of its rivals that Milo Djukanovic was seeking independence for Montenegro.

On the other hand, entering into a political marriage with the DPS, Novak Kilibarda and Zarko Rakicevic have struck a good deal: they have wisely avoided a risk of running on their own, at the same time making it possible for their parties to enter Montenegrin parliament. In addition, the Populists and Social-Democrats have secured logistic support of the ruling party, i.e. mechanisms of the state apparatus which will basically be under the the DPS control.

According to most forecasts, their joint electoral ballot entitled "So That We Can Live Better - Milo Djukanovic" is a winning combination for the forthcoming early parliamentary elections. Such estimates stem from the fact that the three-member coalition has based its campaign on the political power of President Milo Djukanovic, who has behind him the entire state apparatus of Montenegro: the Government, all republican ministries, media which are under direct or indirect control of the authorities, the police..., as well as a significant support of the leaders of great powers and democratic countries of the world.

Judging from the hitherto public appearances of Milo Djukanovic, Svetozar Marovic - President of the Parliament and Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic, it can be concluded that the electoral campaign of the three-member coalition is based on anti-Milosevic platform. According to a well-prepared scenario, it seems that the Three Musketeers are competing who will strike harder at their mentor they have out-grown. With such a strategy they can achieve several objectives: they shall politically distance themselves from Milosevic and the results of his harmful policy; they will push Momir Bulatovic to the margins; they will win the until-recent political space of the Liberal Alliance, SDA and two parliamentary Albanian parties - the DSA and the DUA - whose electorate has been patiently waiting for years for the day when the Dedinje dictator would be forced to his knees. In this way they will also score points with the international factors, while sharp criticism of Milosevic is also music to the ears of church dignitaries and numerous Serbian nationalists who resent his failure at making the promised dream of Great-Serbia, come true.

Actions of the Djukanovic's three-member coalition rank even more prominently after the promises about the repayment of the missing household foreign currency savings which will covers as much as 112 thousand depositors, i.e. 25 percent of the total electorate in Montenegro. In case the missing foreign-exchange savings are repaid immediately

• i.e. before the elections - to all those whose deposits do not exceed 500 DEM (there are 85 thousand of such depositors), then on the basis of this act alone Djukanovic can count on a significant inflow of voters. With this well-thought-out move Djukanovic will change his image of a "fat cat" and a "smuggler", into a benefactor of the poor.

Chances for the final triumph of Djukanovic's coalition are even greater taking into account illusory promises of the leader of the Montenegrin state that he will emphatically oppose devaluation and weakening of the dinar, as well as his promises on the distribution of several thousand DEM worth vouchers to all adult citizens of Montenegro. Having in mind all the heavy artillery which the ruling party has activated in the pre-election fight, then optimism of the Montenegrin President and his allies is quite understandable.

The most serious rival of Djukanovic's coalition and the democratic Montenegro is certainly the Socialist National Party of the former Montenegrin President, Momir Bulatovic. A dedicated follower of Milosevic, in a style of an experienced demagogue Bulatovic as a true populist presents his party as a national movement and himself as an ordinary, man of the street.

When asked by the journalist of "Nasa Borba" whose votes is his SNP counting on, he answered straight off the reel: "The DPS voters. They are the people who always tipped the scales in our favour when it came to the preservation of the statehood of Montenegro, but also loyalty to the FRY". The inaccessibility of the Montenegrin media he compensates with the assistance of the state media from Serbia: "In Montenegro only people with satellite dishes can watch the RTS and these dishes are now in great demand here", explained Bulatovic. His opponents were already heard saying that during the electoral campaign Bulatovic's party will give away free of charge - satellite dishes!

"We are creating a party network, an apparatus which will make it possible to reach each individual voter. Because of the media blockade we have decided to put on peasant moccasins and proceed on foot", said Bulatovic. Abiding by such party instructions, his activists are expanding this network and applying methods of secrecy are calling on electors in their homes, wooing and persuading them to vote for the SNP. Everything is used for party purposes, even the Bible: some individuals have been spotted in the north of Montenegro persuading their hosts to swear by the Bible that they will vote for Momir.

"In addition to other help, Milosevic has sent three or four million DEM to Bulatovic", claimed Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic. On the other side, Momir Bulatovic, didn't deny this: "The SNP is by no means a branch office of the SPS, but we are counting on their support and I do not see anything bad in that", stated honestly the former President for "Nasa Borba".

Bulatovic's target group at these elections are not minorities, and he doesn't hide that: "In its campaign, the SNP is not counting on the support of Moslems and Albanians", said the former President of all Montenegrin citizens sincerely. He has founded his electoral campaign on Milosevic's support: "I have the pleasure of and take pride in cooperating with Mr.Milosevic", boasted Bulatovic accusing Djukanovic of basing his power on smuggling, crime and deception. He is contesting the regularity of elections in advance: "Register number is a magic code and the central computer is connected with the MUP of Montenegro which is a simple way for the police to decide who will have the right of vote", claimed Bulatovic.

Bulatovic's natural allies - Seselj's Radicals and Bojovic's Populists - will certainly have great problem in reaching the required limit for entering Montenegrin Parliament. Supporters of Montenegrin reforms and democratization would like Seselj's and Bojovic's followers to win the necessary 2.5 percent of votes and thus take away a significant 5 percent from Bulatovic's electoral cake.

The Liberal Alliance of Montenegro has also submitted the delegate list of its candidates at the May elections. Refusing to take part in Filip Vujanovic's Cabinet and assessing that they can score better if they run alone, the Liberals have exposed themselves to all sorts of blows: shortage of money, marginalization by the media, various political intrigues, etc. Still, they expect success and base their optimism on "nine-years of principled and honest policy".

"Our offer to citizens of Montenegro is an honest one. Once democratic conditions are created, the LSCG will demand together with citizens and for the citizens of Montenegro at a referendum an affirmative answer of two-thirds of the population to the question - do they want their own house", reveals Ranko Djonovic, the LSCG President, his party's electoral platform. Obviously the Liberals' target group has not changed: these are mostly citizens who are committed to the idea on sovereign Montenegro.

The SDA of Montenegro also counts with getting into the Montenegrin Parliament. Such optimism of the party leadership is based on the consistency of its voters, mistakes of its political opponents and the open support of official Sarajevo.

"We are the only party that always maintained honest relation towards its people. Our voters and sympathizers know how they have been treated by the ruling party, the Liberals, who unfortunately never had one delegate from our midst in the Montenegrin Parliament, how Karadzic and Izetbegovic were the same for the leaders of the Social-Democratic Party and what has Momir Bulatovic done", said Rasim Sahman, the new SDA CG President, in his Saturday interview to the "Pobijeda". The electoral slogan of this party - "Stay True to the Reform and Democracy - Vote for SDA" - shows that this party will stand firm by Djukanovic after the elections.

The two Albanian parties, the Democratic Alliance and the Democratic Union of the Albanians, were convinced that a separate electoral unit has fenced off their political territory. However, the ruling DPS, same as in the case of the Liberals and the SDA, barged into that allied political space. In this connection, in its public statement the Democratic Alliance stated that "the mutual fair play is not quite satisfactory" as "the DPS stops at nothing in trying to win over the Albanian electorate". In its protest, the Democratic Alliance put emphasis on the conspiring and gossiping activity of "one-time commissioners", or more precisely: the secret police.

The inter-party pre-election war has not yet reached its full proportions perhaps because the participants in this election fight think that they have good positions: Bulatovic is convinced that he will win 51 percent, Djukanovic's team thinks that they will have much more than him, the Liberals count on at least one fourth of the electorate, the Radicals and Bojovic's Populists reckon with some 10 percent, the SDA also...One things is certain, someone's illusions will be shattered after May 31.

Seki RADONCIC

AIM Podgorica