SANCTIONS AVOIDED FOR THE TIME BEING

AIM Zagreb, 28 April, 1998

Zagreb has sighed with relief. Croatia has avoided sanctions, by a whisker, and at least for the time being. The threat remains to hang above its head, but it will obviously think about it when the time comes. The fact that maintenance of the status quo in international relations is experienced by Tudjman's regime as success perhaps speaks the best about the actual situation. This year was supposed to be the moment for grand joining European integrations - at least that is what politicians claimed - but just a few months after these pompous announcements, Croatia found itself in the worst situation ever in relation to the international community. Instead of having the gate towards the west opened to it, it is shoved back into the Balkans, into the so-called Daytonland.

The Ministerial Council of the European Union sent word to Croatia that joining the Phare Program remained frozen, and that opening of negotiations about cooperation was considered to be premature. The report on the situation in Croatia, based on which the European fifteen reached such a conclusion, is voluminous, cool and very critical. The position of Croatia is considered problematic in three items - implementation of the agreements from Dayton (relation to Bosnia & Herzegovina) and Erdut (return of Serb refugees), and the question of internal democracy with the stress on freedonm of the media.

In the context of Dayton, a special place was given to Tudjman's speech at the recent party convention. It is said that it caused serious concern in the international community, because it was understood as a denial of Dayton obligations, primarily obligations of respect of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia & Herzegovina.This speech, the European report claims, pointed out to continuous existence of an extremist, irreconcilable and unprogressive element in the official policy. Croatian policy towards B&H is assessed as inconsistent, the proposal of special relations with the B&H Federation made by Zagreb is still contrary to Dayton, institutions of Herzeg-Bosnia still have not disappeared.

In connection with the Erdut agreement, it is stated that Croatia "boasted with empty promises on the national level", but that on the territory of eastern Slavonia it applied "bureaucratic ethnic cleansing". Tudjman's regime on several occasions promised that it would enable return of Serb refugees, in this sense even certain time limits were accepted and determined, but Zagreb is not abiding by the taken obligations. The report states that the process of return was interrupted, and Serb returnees are faced with the enormous problems when they try to use their right to their property. Their chances for employment are null, not only because of great unemployment, but also because of ethnic discrimination.

As concerning democratic norms, the report establishes with disapproval "total domination of the HDZ (Croat Democratic Communita) on the political scene". Several laws are analysed - the election law is considered to be inappropriate, the so-called list for diaspora is especially criticised, which in fact brings the Croats from Herzegovina into the Croatian assembly. A series of facts are listed which make the Croatian elections free, but unfair. The EU demands prompt amendment of the election law and suggests the need for scheduling early parliamentary elections by the end of this year. The law on public gathering is considered by the report to be liable to abuse due to its extreme vagueness and unclarity, the law on association enables the government complete supervision of associations, even their dissolution, the law on humanitarian organisations denies autonomy to non-governmental organizations.

The list of sins in the sphere of the media is espcially long. It is stated that the regime is trying to intimidate journalists, numerous litigations have been instigated against those who are not inclined to the regime, independent media are stifled by means of enormous pecuniary compensations for so-called mental agony, mostly in favour of persons from the authorities or circles close to them. Croatian television, as the main source of information for the greatest part of the population, is fully controlled by the ruling party, being practically its employee. The authorities expressed readiness to change this, but immediately after that five important editors were nominated in the leadership of Tudjman's party.

In the Presidential palace they were sincerely astonished by such methodical and sharp inventory. By diplomatic means, it was possible to achieve only postponement of adoption of the report for a month which should enable Croatia to save in the minute to twelve what little there is still to save. This time was used for big vows by European principles and some indications of changes rather than changes themselves. To warnings of the international community that Croatia is literally at a crossroad, the authorities tried to respond by making moves which one of the vice-presidents of the ruling party defined as "we will agree to a minimum they force us to accept". Tudjman tried to prevent international isolation by certain softening of the stand concerning return of the Serbs, by announcing that the leadership of B&H Croats would remove extremists and by suddenly putting the liberalised draft law on television into assembly procedure.

At the same time, with logistic support of its media, the regime started a sharp campaign against, as it claimed, unprincipled and inimical international pressure. The ruling party demanded assembly discussion on the topic to result in joint resistance to "foreign interference". Appeals to concensus of all parliamentary parties and closing ranks were not accepted by the opposition. For the first time the opposition reacted calmly, it tried to reasonably point out to the truly delicate position of Croatia, disregarding the persistent calls to patriotism and concealed threats. It stressed that the ruling party itself had provoked international intervention, and avoided the attempt of making responsibility of the HDZ collective.

The European Union concluded that Croatia had not met its conditions and that in the next six months mutual relations would remain as they are. In Luxembourg they claim that the message to Zagreb is clear. Big promises are not sufficient, in reality there has been no progress. Establishing once again that the verbally declared loyalty of Croatia to European standards has not been implemented in practice, the Council of Ministers of the European Union states in its decision the following: "Moreover, the indicators of 1998 point out to the conclusion that Croatia is retrogressing from the criteria of the EU". The document claims that conclusions would have been different if the promises, for example, about changes of state Radio-Television had been met ("which would increase independence of Croatian Radio-Television from the ruling party and open the space to alternative national TV stations"); concerning the issue of property, return of refugees and clarification of the law on amnesty.

"The European Union expects from Croatia to consistently implement the Dayton peace accords, to enable undisturbed return of refugees and ethnic reconciliation, as well as to more decisively start democratic reforms", said in Luxembourg Ed Kronenburg, head of the office of the European commissioner for international relations, announcing that - if this does not happen - in the next six months "exclusion of Croatia from the system of trade preferential treatment would be seriously considered". This does not mean that the sanctions against Croatia cannot be introduced before, because, as Kronenburg said, it is "possible to suspend trade privileges at any time".

Although very hard, conclusions from Luxembourg were received in Zagreb with great relief. The worst has been avoided for the time being. Abolishment of trade preferential treatment (guaranteed quota of export of Croatian products to the countries of the EU at a privileged customs rate) inherited from former Yugoslavia, would bring the country to its knees. About 60 per cent of Croatian export is going to the countries of the EU and closing of these doors, even the official sources admit, would be equal to a catastrophe - the number of the unemployed would increase, the standard of living would go down, the country would collapse. Especially because there were speculations that Europe could organize even a specific tourists' boycott of Croatia. Despite that, it seems that the Croatian president was affected the most by the threat of introduction of the sanctions on sports. The authorities which claimed that they would survive everything, that Croatia, like Cuba, would resist pressures, that the Croats, if need be, would even eat grass, immediately started to give in. It seems that Tudjman believes that it would be easier for the people to survive without bread than without games.

Croatia has managed to win time, but how it will use it - remains to be seen. The key is in its hands, but this is no novelty. Spinning one's wheels is in fact regression. It is increasingly possibly to hear in Croatia that pressures against Croatia will not stop as long as Tudjman and the HDZ are in power. This is claimed even by influential people from the state leadership, but in their interpretation it is supposed to sound as evidence of foreign unprincipled policy. However, the Croatian ambassador in the European Union, Janko Vranyczany-Dobrinovic says that in the EU there are doubts whether it is possible to force the HDZ, with firm and strict warnings, to the necessary evolutionary changes or whether it is a futile business, so that it is best to help creation of a new political constellation.

JELENA LOVRIC