THE RETURN OF CROATS TO BOSNIA

AIM ZAGREB, 13 April, 1998

Do the Croats, who have fled from Bosnia, want to return to their mother country? Do they see it as a place where they can build their future? Do they really want to be one of the three equal nations in that state? The official reply of the Croatian authorities to all three questions is "YES". Or better to put it, officially it reads: "Yes, but...".

This "but" is followed by: "if they do not want to return to B&H, then the Republic of Croatia will do everything to make it possible for them to stay and build a prosperous future." Statements of this kind are, as a rule, given by Dr.Jure Radic, Minister of Reconstruction and Development who is sometimes called "Minister for Ethnic Cleansing". Similar replies were also offered by Dr.Mate Granic, Foreign Minister, who supplemented the recently announced plan of the Croatian Government for the return of Serbian refugees - which the Serbs have assessed as yet another, but more sophisticated, obstruction of the return - with an acceptable assessment that the return should be three-sided.

In addition, both Granic and Radic condition the return of the Serbs by the granting of several billion dollars worth international financial assistance. Needless to say, all three directions (or even more than three) should be used for the return of refugees to their homes, and there is no money to realize in practice the return of the Serbs. However, the Croatian authorities have no intention of bringing the Serbs back to Croatia nor Croats to Bosnia, so that all these formulations are used just as an excuse for the delays. Namely, because of the intensified international pressure the return is officially supported, but in practice Zagreb is doing everything in its power to prevent that return from all directions. It is especially set against the return of the Croats to the region of Posavina, as well as Western Bosnia, where the Zagreb official circles do not want too many Croats.

That is why the Croats from the Banjaluka region recently addressed the Croatian public with an open letter presenting their problems which the state media intentionally push to the margins. "Stop", says the letter addressed to the Croatian authorities, "using different envoys and HDZ activists to prevent and dissuade us refugees from returning and voting. Unfortunately, you have succeeded in misleading many of us, and that is why we have only four deputy places in Banjaluka and three in Brcko. If you do not soon realize how wrong that is, it shall be so much the worse for us all. We emphasize that our priests, bishops and cardinal Vinko Puljic remained with us all the time..." It goes on to say that Vinko Puljic and other bishops were shocked by "the above mentioned HDZ emissaries who wanted to tarnish their reputation among the refugees and exiles." The appeal concludes with a plea of the Bosnian Croats to make it possible for all those who want to return to "Drvar, Glamoc, Kupres, Stolac, Banjaluka, Doboj, Prijedor and Posavina..." so that they "could knock on the door of Europe", say the signatories.

One of the champions of this initiative - who wanted to remain anonymous - confirmed that the HDZ wanted to prevent the return of Croats to Bosnia. "The HDZ agitators have launched an intensive campaign on the ground aimed at dissuading people in all possible ways from returning. The HTV propaganda is of great help in this. Several days ago a film from Banjaluka was broadcast showing a Serb who does not want to return to Croatia as he doesn't want his child to serve in the Croatian Army. These methods are employed for discouraging people and then keeping them in constant suspense and despair, never knowing what they will do next."

"Jure Radic always talks about providing for the refugees and not about returning the refugees. They use us as a shield against the return of the Serbs." According to our collocutor, HDZ has not given any sign that its policy towards B&H has changed. "They are persistently abusing the notion of voluntariness", says he. "Recently, Djuro Brodarac in Gvozd said openly 'Don't allow the Serbs to return, this is now yours'. After that and Tudjman's speech at the HDZ General Convention, fire spread around Kordun and Banija burning the Serbian houses to the ground. Such words mislead the people. On the other hand, they incessantly broadcast news which discourage them from returning. They constantly claim that the USA will soon grow tired of pressurising them. Even now they advice people against voting at the B&H elections in September. They claim that 70 percent of Croats from Korenica do not want to go back and abuse their free will."

He says that refugees are now promised to be provided for and that no one will be thrown into the street, while till now they were told that "there is no return for them and this now belongs to you". He claims that this winter the Croats and Serbs have struck an agreement in Mostar to prevent the Serbs from returning to Drvar and Croats for going back to Banjaluka. However, the Banjaluka Croats are not all of the same opinion. The state is preventing them from getting organized. The opinion of the other association from Zagreb about the return of Croats to Bosnia and Herzegovina, also differs.

Vjekoslav Tripalo, President of the Union of Croats from North-West Bosnia, which is located at Zagreb Kaptol (city centre), close to the Cathedral, exclusively blames the Serbian side for the non-return of the Croats to Bosnia. According to him, no agreement has been reached on this either on the highest or at the communal level. "The Serbian side doesn't have the green light of its state top leadership", said Tripalo. He denies that the HDZ members were lobbying on the ground. "That is destructive activity on the part of individual members who have resolved their problems, found jobs and got houses and now want to persuade others to stay here too so that they could live among their own people whom they know".

During recent months the Union of Croats carried out a census of Croats who want to return to this part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Until now, according to Tripalo, out of a total of 70 thousand Croatian refugees and exiles some two thousand have expressed their wish to return. "They mostly want to go back to four communes: Banjaluka with its surroundings, Kotor Varos, Bosanska Gradiska and Ljubija. We expect some 30 to 50 percent of them to return, the others have acquired homes, moved to Western parts of the country or are getting along somehow. Those who came with the last wave, carrying only bags, who did not manage to exchange or in some other way save their property, are those who want to get back in greatest numbers", says Tripalo.

It seems that some 130 thousand Croats who have fled from Posavina are in a similar situation. Nonetheless, the Union of Exiled Posavina Population has recently changed its name into the Union of Returnees. "Immediately after the occupation in 1992, over 80 percent of the population left the region of Posavina", says their President, Anto Gogic. "Out of that number, over 130 thousand were Croats. According to our data, in April and May 1996, over 85 percent and in some instances as much as 92 percent wanted to return to their homeland. Today, the situation is somewhat different, but people still want to go back. For example, from March 12 to 26, this year we have registered 500 families which want to return to Derventa. These are mostly four-member families. We consider that a success. I am convinced that this first group, if provided with sufficient material and financial assistance from the international community, would be followed by at least ten time larger number of applicants wishing to return." Gogic believes that the international community will crush any opposition on the part of the HDZ. "I personally think that the HDZ B&H has changed its stance", said Gogic. "In any case, the Posavina people intend to turn out at the September elections. As they are well organized, they will probably succeed."

Needless to say, the return of the Croatian, Serbian and Bosniac refugees is primarily a political issue. It would prevent the creation of ethnically clean states, but - according to Zagreb, Belgrade and even Sarajevo - would also bring into question the survival of these states. It seems possible that a rather firm, precise and clear agreement was reached in this regard, at least between Zagreb and Belgrade. For the time being no one has disputed it - at least not in practice.

The best -known advocate of the division of Bosnia in Croatia is, no one else but its President, Dr.Franjo Tudjman. The idea on the possibility of dividing this state crossed Tudjman's mind already in mid-sixties about which Danijel Ivin, his one-time friend and associate at the Institute for the History of Workers' Movement in Croatia, of which he was the Director, gives a convincing testimony. Some analysts, who believe that there exists a theory of conspiracy, are certain that this Tudjman's conviction was decisive for Belgrade's decision to render him a rather obvious support during the first and all subsequent elections in Croatia. The majority of politicians from the Croatian opposition are set against this idea. They think that an integral Bosnia could be the most effective obstacle preventing the establishment of Greater Serbia, and would for geopolitical reasons, in fact, form a part of Croatia. This Tudjman's conviction was the reason why his most faithful associates Stipe Mesic, Josip Manolic and Josip Boljkovac parted ways with him four years ago. The majority of Croats are also against the idea on the division of Bosnia. However, this is a much more complex issue because the change of situation "on the ground" after the "Storm" in 1995, might cause grave difficulties in case of a possible attempt to restore the previous state of affairs.

In addition, it is obvious that a struggle between the HDZ pretenders to Tudjman's throne has began and, it seems, that the attitude towards the B&H problem represents one of the decisive tests as to whom will Dr.Franjo Tudjman place his trust in and hand over the reins of power in HDZ and perhaps even the state, after his death. Recently, at a party press conference, Tudjman's favourite and Minister of Health, the HDZ Vice-President, Dr.Andrija Hebrang, spoke about the problem of Bosnia. His words clearly showed that Hebrang's attitude towards the neighbouring state was identical or similar to Tudjman's.

Another great pretender to Tudjman's throne, Vice-President of the Government and Foreign Minister, Dr.Mate Granic, also spoke about protecting Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina at any cost. It is uncertain whether he will be the one to succeed the state from Tudjman, just as it is uncertain whether in this situation, pressured by the international community - but lacking Tudjman's charisma - these pretenders would continue to pursue such policy. The Herzegovinian lobby, the strongest and most influential club of advocates of the division of Bosnia, experienced some forceful political blows in recent months after which the proponents of this stream in the Croatian policy can count even less with taking over the reins of power after Tudjman. However, not only the Croatian, but also Serbian ambitions regarding the division of Bosnia are at play here so that this year - which foreign diplomats call the year of return

• will certainly bring some more lasting solutions.

BORIS RASETA