"Calculations" Excluded SDA

Coalition "For Better Life"

Creation of a broad reform block would have deprived Bulatovic's SNP of almost all chances. As it is, Bulatovic's hopes raised. And the story about a big democratic block and reforms will be told by those who survive the elections, because, as always, the priority here is given to - power

AIM Podgorica, 9 April, 1998

It seems that, a fortnight before the elections, the cards have been dealt: tedious negotiations about creation of the election alliance have practically been completed and the great reformist block melted away. If no new spectacular shifts occur, which can never be eliminated, in mid next week, representatives of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the National Party (NS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) of Montenegro will publicize formation of the three-member coalition, under the election slogan "For Better Life". There will, however, probably be no reason for champagne like last autumn. Seven parties, signatories of the autumn agreement on minimum conditions for establishment of democratic infrastructure in Montenegro which jointly enabled the victory of Milo Djukanovic in the presidential elections, did not manage to repeat creation of a broader anti-Milosevic block in Montenegro.

There are several reasons for such a denouement. Absence of the announced coalition of parties which gather the Albanians in Montenegro (DUA and DS) was expected and logical: the new election law and formation of a separate electoral district on the territory populated mostly by the Albanians almost guarantee the presence of five deputies of these parties in the Republican parliament. In the DPS, NS and SDP they take it for granted that the Muslims will cooperate with them, but after the elections.

The most powerful opposition party, signatory of the autumn agreement - the Liberal League of Montenegro (LSCG) - has also remained outside the election alliance. After statements of the leadership of the LSCG in the past two-three months, hardly anybody could have expected pre-election cooperation between the Liberals and the DPS. After all, the LSCG unwillingly signed the agreement between the government of Montenegro and the parliamentary parties. "The Liberal Alliance had a different idea about all this. We demanded that the presidential and the parliamentary elections be scheduled simultaneously in December. Had that happened, neither of the factions of the DPS would have been able to consolidate and establish full control of all unformal centres of power which were so far in their hands jointly", said Slavko Perovic, the political leader of the LSCG, accusing the then coalition partner Novak Kilibarda of having prevented appearance of a joint opposition candidate in the presidential elections.

Afterwards, Perovic whole-heartedly implemented the provisions of the agreement. Both in the field and on television, he convincingly explained to the voters why it was important to support Milo Djukanovic in the second round of November presidential elections. But, already in December, at the Convention of the LSCG held in Budva, it was announced that the Liberals would appear on their own in May elections. It was officially explained, and it still is, with the lack of "specific offer of the DPS", announcing only the possibility of a post-election alliance. The Liberals, explaining that they wished to participate in power only on the basis of the election results, did not enter the multiparty cabinet of prime minister Filip Vujanovic.

To put it simply: it is obvious that the Liberals will not be sorry for not being in the alliance with the DPS. After the experience in the coalition National Harmony and difficulties in agreeing to "lend" their votes to Djukanovic, Perovic now wishes to check "whether roses bloom in May" and how really powerful the Liberal Alliance is. If the election results show that the new government cannot be formed without the LSCG, the political leader of this party will be the one who will dictate the conditions. If the three-member coalition will be capable of constituting the government, along with DUA, DS and SDA, Perovic will miss the opportunity to become the "Balkan Kinkel", that is, the decisive weight which can tip the balance of power.

The leadership of the Democratic Party of Socialists is not sorry that Perovic and his party comrades were not present at pre-election gatherings of the coalition. Although officially silent, leaders of the DPS obviously have no wish to haggle with the LSCG. A series of specific accusations from the ranks of the LSCG about the behavior of the current authorities which were heard in the past few months, but also in the statements of the LSCG, seem to have destroyed every wish to negotiate. There are "strategic" reasons for this: for the fighters for revival and reforms in Yugoslavia, from the aspect of narrow party interests, cooperation with the Liberals was obviously just a necessary evil last year.

Knowing the mechanism of party operation, but also the ambitions of party leaders, all that could have been expected even before the talks on creation of the "reform-democratic" coalition. But, news that arrived yesterday that although it was announced, the Party of Democratic Action would after all not participate in the coalition, was quite unexpected. Rifat Veskovic, vice president of the SDA, was sincerely surprised. "At the Cetinje meeting it was concluded that our four parties were willing to run together in the elections. Since then we had no contacts, and if news about the three-member are true, it means that it was agreed behind our backs", he said in a statement to Podgorica daily Vijesti.

Obviously, things did happen behind other people's backs. The executive board of the DPS, "after a short and constructive discussion", simply excluded the SDA from the coalition combinations. The leadership of the DPS had already reached this decision, the executive board just made it legitimate. Reasons for it were not made public, but it is difficult to conceal them. Leaders of the DPS simply believed that last year's labels from the elections for the president ("Milo Turk!" and similar) might be repeated. It has become clear that the tactics prepared for a long time was aimed at snatching away the Serb (read: Bulatovic's) part of the electorate. That is the reason for the three-hour presentation of Metropolitan Amfilohije on state television. The DPS even arranged the appearance of Vojislav Seselj on state and local television stations just in order to take away a few votes from Bulatovic even if it meant raising the rating of the Radicals. In the attempt to shatter Bulatovic's electorate, the DPS has decided to forget the principles of the autumn agreement. The unreserved support of the leaders of the SDA to uniting of the reformists was also forgotten. When TV was taken over from Bulatovic's men, the decisive vote in the management board was that of Rifat Veskovic. In mid November last year none of the reformists checked the nationality of those almost 12 thousand votes from Rozaje. On the contrary, such counting in Bulatovic's camp was called chauvinism. And now, as if they were contagious, they should be somehow concealed. It is true that at the meeting with the leaders of the DPS Veskovic received "firm assurances" that the coalition would not work against his party, but it is highly questionable how it will be done in the field.

Led by cruel pre-election calculations, leaders of the DPS have started a game the outcome of which is very uncertain. It should not be disregarded that in the electorate of Montenegro, there are between 11 and 12 per cent of the Muslims. There is no doubt that the election alliance would have been considerably reinforced had the coalition with the SDA been formed. As it is, the votes of the Muslims will be distributed among four parties - between the SDA, the LSCG, the reformist coalition and the newly established Hadzic's party. In other words: a certain, for the time being unknown percentage of votes, will most probably be scattered, or according to the system of ponderinmg, given to the party which wins the largest number of votes.

Had a broad reformist block been created, Bulatovic's Socialists would not have stood a chance. Although he has not come out in public yet, president of the SNP Momir Bulatovic must have high hopes again. And the story about a great democratic block and reforms will be told by those who survive the elections. Because, it seems that the most important things here are power and party interests, especially to those who have been in power all these years.

Drasko DJURANOVIC

AIM Podgorica