THE SERBS ARE LEAVING, THE CROATS ARE NOT COMING BACK

AIM Zagreb, 4 April, 1998

"We expect much from the conference on reconstruction and development of Podunavlje, we hope that the world will with its deeds show readiness to help return and creation of conditions for raising of quality of life. We have received 'signals' from many countries that they are ready to help, but we will be able to speak about quantification of these wishes only after the conference begins. The stress of our expectations from the donors' conference is on reconstruction of the economy". This is how Jure Radic, Croatian minister of reconstruction and development, without concealing his optimism, spoke in an interview to Osijek Glas Slavonije on 18 March this year. But, just a fortnight later, at a session of the Croatian government, this very minister was much more restrained in his expectations: Croatia had prepared for the donors' conference programs worth more than three billion dollars, but this sum of money should not be identified with the expectations of Croatia from the world. Indeed, said Radic, Croatia did not expect help, but it was offering and seeking partnership, and accordingly the name of the donors' gathering would be the "Conference on Reconstruction and Development of Croatia".

Between the two quite different statements of the same minister, Croatia was visited by special envoy of American president Clinton for the Balkans, Robert Gelbard. He spent one morning in Vukovar in order to try to understand better the story about the silent Serb exodus from over there. Vesna Skare-Ozbolt, president of the National Committee for establishment of confidence, headed the sparrow-like choir of Croatian officials who have become hoarse reapeating that the Serbs were emigrating for economic, and not political reasons. Vojislav Stanimirovic, Milos Vojnovic, Milorad Pupovac and other Serb leaders from Croatia, lay the stress on political circumstances, fear and lack of confidence, which - they believe - induces people to emigrate. Gelbard talked to the ones and the others and publicly did not say whom he believed more, but at the meeting with the journalists, he stated what he thought about the reasons for difficult economic conditions. He expressed his amazement with the fact that the Croatian government had refused to accept last year the already approved loans of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), because acceptance of these loans would have implied other financial means which Croatia could have directed into reconstruction.

It is worthwhile reminding oneself of the causes of the sudden outburst of Croat pride: this happened at the time of arguments about extradition of Bosnian Croats (Dario Kordic and company) indicted for war crimes, to the international tribunal in the Hague. While Kordic and the others were still in the airplane flying from Split towards Amsterdam, a Croatian official joyfully exclaimed that no obstacles existed any more for Croatia to be granted IMF loans. This was a clumsy and unfortunate statement, so the correction followed from the highest Croatian address. It was decided to refuse the IMF loans, not only because "we do not export our men for loans", but because we could do without these "Judas' coins". Gelbard obviously did not seem to understand this demonstration of Croatian pride, and saw it fit to say so in Vukovar, a month before the beginning of the donors' conference which Croatia expected so much from.

Radic has obviously learnt something about how Croatian pride is defended. Numerous representatives of the international community, speaking about foreign aid which is necessary for faster reconstruction of Podunavlje, regularly stressed that it was possible to expect money only under the condition that this region remained as it used had been before the war - multiethnic and multicultural. In connection with this it was demanded from Croatia (and until last year's visit of American ambassador in the UN, Billy Richardson, to president Tudjman, regularly refused) to permit return of all Serb refugees to Croatia. Towards the end of summer, Tudjman finally accepted it, then Gojko Susak, minister of defence, repeated it in Washington in the beginning of this year to his American colleague William Cohen, but only in the past few days did Croatian government come out with the document which precisely describes the procedure for the return of refugees to Croatia. In order to avoid making the impression that "we are importing men for loans" now, Radic has suddenly reduced his expectations from the donors' conference, but just to be on the safe side, he also changed its name. Croatia does not need anybody to donate anything to it - it is just offering and seeking partnership!

Everything is fine until it all comes down to national pride, but when reconstruction of Podunavlje is concerned - this Croatian bottomless pit - unfortunately matters stand quite differently. Not only because there is not at all enough money to move things from the standstill, but because it seems that not even the government, and especially its minister of reconstruction, Jure Radic, knows where to begin. It turned out that reconstruction of apartments and houses was not the way leading to the quickest return of the banished. Everybody who nowadays visits Vukovar will see numerous reconstructed buildings and apartments (mostly with the money of the European Union) which are gaping empty. People are not returning to Vukovar (nor anywhere else for that matter) in order to find accommodation over there. It is necessary to work somewhere, to earn one's living and live off something.

Devastated economy (Borovo, Vutex, VUPIK industries) is not capable of ensurring people their existence, and Croatia has no money to start its reconstruction on its own. It is obvious that it is necessary, along with reconstruction of the housing, to work in parallel on the infrastructure and the economy. And this will not be possible without foreign aid. While he was still an optimist, Radic declared that reconstruction of Podunvalje would last ten years. "Return is not a momentary event so that our returnees could say: Here I am today, and tomorrow I will be at my home", he said. Since he is in his pessimistic phase - aware that three billion dollars which Croatia will bid at the donors' conference, will be written by the international community on its cheque of its aid at best with one zero less - Radic said nothing about duration of reconstruction. Nevertheless, he too is aware that it is necessary to work on a few tracks at the same time, that is, to reconstruct in parallel with housing units, infrastructure and the economy.

When the whole region of Podunavlje is concerned, a considerable sum of money for removal of mines should also be taken into account (it is assessed that there are still half a million mines scattered in Podunavlje), because it is clear that without that, there can be no agricultural production - as a branch of the economy which requires comparatively small investments. Although numerous statements are arriving from the very top of Croatian politics that the ethnic and minority rights of the Serbs in Podunavlje will be protected pursuant the highest international standards, it seems that there is still no concensus to actually act accordingly. Excursions of the president of the Croat Party of Right, Ante Djapic, to Vukovar and of his activists to Baranja - who had a silent blessing of the authorities - show that in Croatia forces which still regret that they did not enter Vukovar on tanks but by train must not be neglected. The territory with no Serbs - like in the case of operations Flash and Storm, still seem ideal to some and they cannot forgive themselves for having permitted Jacques Klein, William Walker and UNTAES to do for two long years what could have been resolved in just a few days by military force - although with different consequences. That is why - aware of all that, but also aware of the fact that the international community also knows it only too well, Croatia does not expect much from the donors' conference. As long as the measure of national pride is expressed by statements such as "we will not export our men for loans" or "invest others" in order to get money at a donors' conference, Croatia will watch the Serbs leaving Podunavlje, but the Croats will not be returning there.

DRAGO HEDL

AIM