ANNOUNCEMENTS OF A REFORMIST COALITION

A Chance or a Disaster

As a rule, coalitions prevent the "scattering of votes", but an election alliance can also prove to be a trap of sorts, if those involved only take care of the interests of their own parties.

AIM Podgorica, April 4, 1998

Already at the end of last week it was quite certain: there would be no reformist coalition. At least that was what the leaders of the ruling DPS - who had the main say in decision-making on the creation of this alliance

• officially said. However, this week representatives of the DPS had two meetings with the leaders of the opposition. They were held behind closed doors. Far from the public eye the authorities and a part of the opposition tried to agree on the election alliance. According to scarce information which leaked coalition of the DPS with the SDP, the Popular Party and the SDA is almost certain. They are trying to sign a non-aggression pact with the Liberals, while two Albanian parties will most probably be bypassed because of the specific electoral system.

If this agreement is comes true, the political geography of Montenegro will be radically changed, as will the position of the political parties in the electoral race which has practically begun.

Before these meetings no one knew for sure whether a coalition of democratic forces, signatories of the autumn Agreement between the Government and the democratic opposition will materialize. The only thing certain was the decision of the Liberals to run independently since they did not get "a serious offer from the DSP", while long before the calling of the elections the Social-Democrats (SDP) and the Populists (NS) invited everyone to join them. Opponents of the coalition warned of their weakness and the possible failure in May, while the leading men of the NS and the SDP accused them of only wanting to create a united front against the red and black coalition from Belgrade and unitarisation of the country which, with the formation of Milosevic-Seselj alliance, was promulgated as the official Serbian policy.

The DPS officials did not pay much attention to warnings on the necessity of coalition. They spoke about the strength of their party with self-confidence. Even Svetozar Marovic was heard to say that over 50 percent of voters were "loyal" to the DPS. It was practically certain that, with such a support, they will run in the elections on their own. Milica Pejanovic-Djurisic said as much on several occasions, and so did the other DPS activists. Miodrag Vukovic even theoretically explained this strategy. "If we were to form a coalition now, that would mean the uniting of all parties, signatories to the Agreement, into a single party. That would have to be followed by a unified political programme, and we have not consolidated the electorate just to split it up now", said Vukovic, thereby intimating that those against coalition had the upper hand in his party.

However, it seems that the will of the DPS majority suddenly changed over the weekend in favour of the joint participation which now, two months before the elections, has forced the DPS leaders to sit at the negotiating table with the opposition and talk about forming a coalition. Judging by all, the reason was not the awareness that only a bloc of democratic forces could carry out reforms and lead the society through a smooth transition towards democracy. For, if such an awareness really existed, valuable time would have not been wasted on attempts at re-establishing one-party monopoly in the period since presidential elections and a frail victory of the signatories to the. Agreement. Representatives of the authorities kept busy replacing officials in communes, organizing party cells in firms and improving the state media which now promote the ruling elite's policy with more subtlety. Instead of consolidating the anti-Milosevic alliance, the DPS did everything it could to restore its lost party positions, to weaken Bulatovic, but also its partners from the Agreement.

However, Bulatovic and his men did not sit on their hands which was best seen at the SNP's Founding Congress in a packed hall of the "Moraca" sports centre. It was evident that the patriotic bloc, rallied around the former president of the Republic, would be a hard nut to crack. Almost all surveys show that Bulatovic is leading the strongest party in Montenegro. The self-confident appearances of the DPS front men are evidently melting before the warning results of public opinion polls. Surveys show that after the last year's party disintegration, the DPS has managed to stabilize its power to a certain extent, but not to bring back a large number of voters. According to probes carried out in previous months, Djukanovic is the most popular politician in Montenegro, but the party of Momir Bulatovic is for some percentage points stronger than his party.

True, Bulatovic's party would get today far less votes than that impressive number which circled the name of the former president at October elections. Therefore, Bulatovic's SNP will probably be unable to form the Government alone, or better said, it practically has no chance of winning the absolute power in Parliament. But, the strongest party will be the one to give prime-minister designate after the elections and it is not hard to assume how complicated the political picture of Montenegro would become if Bulatovic or someone from his team were the future Prime Minister designate. And that would also mean the end of the reform story.

According to present public opinion polls, the reform coalition consisting of the DPS, SDP, NS and the SDA would beat Bulatovic at the elections, even without the LSCG, DUA and DS. And in a post-election alliance with the Liberals and the Albanian parties, which seems only natural and possible, the grand coalition would dominantly rule the Parliament and the Government. In that case, Bulatovic would be only a respectable opposition.

The DPS leadership has only recently admitted to this calculation, which the SDP and the Populists recognized at once. In addition to its failure in pushing Bulatovic's party to the margins, the change in attitude was most probably also caused by the attitude of the international community. Numerous diplomats who visited Podgorica in recent weeks, hinted to Djukanovic that he would be able to beat Bulatovic and Milosevic only together with the opposition, and that the West was more inclined to support a democratic bloc, than one party. In any case, experience of the post-communist countries show that transition to democracy is only possible through the alliance of all democratic forces.

Whether there will be an election bloc and who will be in it will most probably be known by the end of the week. A coalition could be a great chance for Montenegro if the DPS representatives and the opposition manage to agree. As a rule, coalitions prevent the "scattering of votes" which is important in Montenegro where the electorate is highly fragmented after major political shocks. But, an election alliance might easily be a trap of sorts, if those involved care only for the interests of their parties. That is why the negotiations are so difficult. It should be remembered that one attempt to form a major opposition coalition failed here because of disputes over several deputy seats. If history repeats itself, then reforms here will have to wait for some better and more pragmatic men.

Milka Tadic

AIM Podgorica