REFERENDUM FOR PRESERVATION OF POWER

Serbia and Kosovo

With his demand that the citizens of Serbia declare their stand concerning international mediation in Kosovo, Milosevic is lining up the nation behind his national flag again, and at the same time postponing every constructive step in resolving the problem of Kosovo.

AIM Belgrade, 5 April, 1998

"Referendum...dum-dum-dum"... That is how a number of years ago the Index Radio-Theatre (known students' satirical radio program) in Belgrade commented on one of the first referendums of Slobodan Milosevic. In the case of the new declaration of the will of the citizens of Serbia in which they are expected to answer whether they accept foreign participation in resolving the problem in Kosovo, the mentioned dumdum effect (allusion to the type of bullets which mushroom and tear gaping wounds) is more expressed than ever.

Since in the very initiative for the referendum all those who would possibly declare themselves in favour of foreign participation have practically already been proclaimed high traitors, it is obvious that every form of international mediation will be rejected. It is equally obvious that the manoeuvre with the referendum will not at all contribute to finding the mutually acceptable solution for the burning problem of Kosovo.

The idea of the president of the federal Reopublic of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic on scheduling a referendum, formulated in his letter dated 2 April and addressed to Milan Milutinovic, president of Serbia, Mirko Marjanovic, prime minister of Serbia, and Dragan Tomic, chairman of its parliament, came as a complete surprise, and its momentary effect was diverting political attention from the essential problem - what to do in Kosovo - to the question of defence of the nation from foreign threat.

The international Contact Group, among the conditions which Slobodan Milosevic should meet in Kosovo if he intends to avoid new sanctions, included acceptance of the international mediation in negotiations - but this was not the first nor the most important condition (the key condition is opening of an unconditional dialogue with Kosovo Albanians and withdrawal of special forces of the Serbian police from the province).

Among other, Milosevic wrote the following to his closest associates: "It is known that we have refused to accept participation of foreign representatives in resolution of internal issues of our country, and especially in resolving the problems in Kosovo and Metohija which are the internal issue of Serbia. I believe that this stand has an essential significance for preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country... I believe that during all this time of the crisis in the space of former Yugoslavia we have pursued national policy and not personal policy, not even party policy. And that in this case our refusal that the foreign factor participate in resolving the internal issue of the Republic of Serbia - that of Kosovo and Metohija - is also national policy, and not personal or party policy. Whether this is true or not, the citizens themselves can answer..."

Slobodan Milosevic as the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, is not at all competent to initiate a referendum in any of the federal units. However, in this - like in any other case - he does not act as a holder of an office defined and limited by the Constitution, but as the leader of the nation. And the idea of the leader was accepted in a flash.

Milutinovic (who is not competent for referendums either) has "to the full extent" supported the referendum, Tomic supported it "sincerely", and the government unanimously adopted the initiative of the president of FRY. On Monday, 6 April, the National Assembly will discuss the draft decision on scheduling the republican referendum "for declaration of the citizens of Serbia whether they accept participation of foreign representatives in resolving the problems in Kosovo and Metohija". Since the idea on the referendum was supported by three greatest parliamentary parties - the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), the Serb Radical Party (SRS) and the Serb Revival Movement (SPO), the draft will, of course, be passed by the Assembly, and then the referendum will take place in at least 30 or 60 days at the most since the day it is scheduled.

In the public, doubt has already appeared whether the referendum will succeed, that is whether more than half of the voters in the Republic will vote in it. One third of the electorate are members of ethnic minorities, and they most probably will not vote.

Kosovo Albanians have already declared that they would not, and their leader Ibrahim Rugova said that the referendum was frivolous and that it was intended to block resolution of the problem of Kosovo. Leaders of a few Voivodina parties (Dragan Veselinov - National Peasants' Party, Nenad Canak - League of Social Democrats of Voivodina) declared that they were against the referendum, while the League of Voivodina Hungarians stated that it supports scheduling of the referendum but suggests to the voters "not to offer support to the policy of isolation from the world by their votes". The Coalition for Sandzak also declared that it appealed to its members and sympathizers not to participate in the referendum, because they did not wish to give pretext for political failures of Slobodan Milosevic.

The previous two referendums in Serbia, in 1992 (on state insignia and early parliamentary elections) were unsuccessful because an insufficient number of voters responded. In this case, however - as Milosevic says - significant issues are at stake, such as integrirty and sovereignty, so it is not impossible that a sufficient number of citizens will come to the polls, and even if they do not, adding a few hundred thousand lacking votes have never seemed to be a great problem for the authorities in Serbia.

But, let us describe the atmosphere which is being created concerning the referendum. The authorities are firing from heavy verbal artillery. "Personally, I am convinced that an enormous majority of the citizens of Serbia will plebiscitarily reject any form of foreign mediation in the process of resolving our internal problems", said vice prime minister of Serbia and leader of the Serb Radical Party, Vojislav Seselj. "Such attitude to Kosovo and Metohija as an inalienable and integral part of Serbia is an expression of responsibility to our vital national and state interests and protection of the state from foreign interference", it is said in the statement of the SPS.

The Yugoslav Left, headed by the wife of the Yugoslav president, Mirjana Markovic, thinks the following: "Our stand to resolve our problems by ourselves without foreign interference is negatively accepted by foreign power-wielders who have dissolved former Yugoslavia, who wish to dissolve this Yugoslavia and who wish to dictate the whole world how it should live".

State media, according to the recipe verified by tradition, are publicizing all-national support to the president and his patriotism. Politika, for instance, quotes the telegram of support of Apatip municipal board of the SPS which sent a message to Milosevic who had "in crucial historical moments for Serbia and Yugoslavia in the past decade made courageous and wise decisions. This decision of yours to have the citizens of Serbia declare their will concerning defence of territorial integrity of Serbia and Yugoslavia proves that you have never disregarded the will of the people". Politika also carries the telegram of New Communist Party of Yugoslavia in which it is said that "Western forces, primarily the USA, with the help of domestic 'fifth column' are trying to impose a dictate on our country calculated to destroy Serbia and Yugoslavia with the aim to create in stages a phantom separatist creation on our territory which would be the springboard for installing bases of occupation NATO forces in Kosmet" (Kosovo and Metohija).

On the other hand, what is left of the democratic opposition in Serbia is trying to introduce a voice of reason into the whole story, so the Civic Alliance of Serbia says that "it would be best if in our country a referendum would be scheduled on the catastrophic policy of Slobodan Milosevic and his survival". The Democratic Party states that "the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, with its behavior, unconstitutional and undemocratic actions just offered reason for foreign interference which he himself has always permitted in the end", and the Democratic Party of Serbia thinks that "Milosevic is substituting a changeling to the Serb people who should decide at the referendum about an aspect of the problem of Kosovo which is not unimportant, but it is just one of the questions.

The international community has largely expressed a negative attitude towards Milosevic's referendum. Secretary general of the NATO Javier Solana assessed that it was "just another mistake" of the president of FRY. Spokesman of the State Department, James Rubin says that it shows that Milosevic has remained unwilling to accept the minimum conditions set by the international community and that he is "gambling with the furture of his nation". Bronislav Geremek, OSCE chairman, repeated the stand that participation of a third party was necessary in pacifying the situation in Kosovo and Metohija. German foreign minister, Klaus Kinkel recommended Milosevic to give up the referendum and said that it was "nothing else but a procedural trick aimed at rejection a credible, unconditional dialogue with Kosovo Albanians which would be internationally observed".

Therefore, what does Milosevic want with the referendum except to have the sanctions imposed on his nation, which can hardly survive them. First, he wishes to incite national patriotic zeal among the Serbs and to line them up behind the flag he is carrying, of course. He would have probably been even happier if he could have, like in the end of the eighties and the beginning of the nineties, counted on massive support of the people in the streets as a sign of support to his politics (if they would shout "we want arms" it would have been even better), but such zeal simply does not exist any more even concerning Kosovo as the quintessence of Serb national emotions.

Referendum is therefore the second best solution for confirmation of "unity of the nation and the leadership", and support to Milosevic as the unquestioned leader.

Second, since Serbia remains quite unwavering in its stand that the question of Kosovo can be resolved only without any international mediation and solely within Serbia (and not Yugoslavia, as the Albanians wish) it is becoming quite certain that in the end of April, economic sanctions will be imposed on Yugoslavia. If the referendum succeeds, Milosevic will be able to calmly say: "You asked for it, now suffer". After all, the sanctions would be very welcome for him because they would also be a pretext for the total economic collapse which is imminent for Yugoslavia with its policy, even if the sanctions are not officially introduced.

Third, waiting for the outcome of the referendum is a perfect pretext for postponing any serious negotiations with Kosovo Albanians. Slobodan Milosevic, in compliance with his known skill in this sense, will manoeuvre in order to preserve and, if possible, consolidate undoubtedly shaken power. Had he ever really intended to ask the people, he would have asked them when he was starting the previous three wars. Or he would now pose the essential question - are you in favour of giving Kosovo and Metohija a higher level of autonomy.

As it is, a peaceful solution for Kosovo is not even a step closer, and the agony of Serbia and Yugoslavia under Slobodan Milosevic is continuing undisturbed.

Roksanda Nincic

(AIM)