Tirana between the Contact Group and Kosovo

IM WESTEN NICHTS NEUES

AIM Tirana, 30 March, 1998

The title of Remarque's novel "Nothing New in the West" seems to fit perfectly the news arriving from the meeting of the Contact Group in Bonn. It seems that the people in the Balkans are not the only ones who are unable to draw lessons from history. The Contact Group had in its dossier new elements which needed to be incorporated in the balance sheet - such as the latest massacre in Decani just a night before their meeting, election of Seselj for the post of the vice prime minister of Serbia, as well as new signatures of the Serbian and the Albanian delegation on the old agreement on education. And like in theories of the ancient Chinese, two evils weighed less than one good, and Primakov and perhaps even Dini could sigh with relief.

The guardian angel of Milosevic this time seems to have come from Italy, in the person of the Catholic priest Vincenzo Palla from St. Egidio, without the mediation of which the already signed agreement would never have been signed again and the European foreign ministers, members of the Contact Group, would have remained silent. Without denying the significance of this first step, it should be said that the agreement on education is not exactly the magical key either, which should be mystified. It has already become history and belongs in the past and it can hardly serve as a starting point. A starting point would with no doubt be taking efficient measures for prevention of spreading of the conflict which threatens to escalate and extend to the whole region, and opening of talks on the future status of Kosovo.

In Tirana, the invitation sent to prime minister Nano to parrticipate at the meeting in Bonn was considered to be a good sign. After a series of visits of representatives of almost all main international institutions which are dealing with the Kosovo crisis (Tony Lloyd, Javier Solana, Gelbard, Van der Broek, Geremek, Talbot), the Albanian prime minister caused significant astonishment when for the first time since 1990 he articulated the Albanian stand that Tirana was in favour of a status of Kosovo equal to that of Montenegro or Republica Srpska. In other words, although Tirana recognized semi-oficially the republic of Kosovo (by a decision of its parliament, but not of its government), for the first it has offered a solution within FRY. It had already become a custom in the past few years, regardless of who was in power, to use abstract terminology in official Albanian statements, such as assertion of legitimate rights for the Albanians etc. etc., but never to specifically mention any future status of Kosovo. There have been speculations that the formula of the third republic had in fact come as a suggestion from Washington which was adopted by official Tirana. This sounds convincing if one has in mind the fact that during all these years Tirana had never taken initiative concerning the issue of Kosovo, but just blindly obeyed recommendations of the West, primarily those of the USA, in exchange for which it was awarded by support for remaining in power and applying dubious democratic standards in the country. Even if its policy towards Kosovo was and still is confusing, this largely reflects the fact that the policy of the West was and still is confusing and undecisive.

It is interesting that Nano's proposal of the option a la Montenegro or a la Republica Srpska was considered to be realistic by Berisha as well, who regularly says "no" to every proposal of the prime minister and vice versa. Despite his increasingly nationalistic vocabulary in the past period, former president Berisha also used to pursue policy of obedience of the West concerning the question of Kosovo. His formula of resolving the question of Kosovo by means of "creating a democratic space for the Albanians" is not far, moreover one could say that it is almost equal to Nano's formula of "Europeanization of the Balkans" or creation of a Balkan Schengen. And regardless of the fact that they are sworn enemies and that Berisha is highly popular in Kosovo which is not true when Nano is concerned, neither one nor the other were capable of pursuing independent policy, if for no other reason, then because the feeble and dilapidated Albania can hardly survive without aid from the West.

Nano has gone to Bonn with his formula of a compromise in his pocket, but the six members of the Contact Group more than with formulas for resolving the problem were busy dealing with formulas for postponing the problem. The formula of the third republic within Yugoslavia which is not new but which is also mentioned as one of the possibilities in the document of the International Council Action titled "Kosovo - From the Crisis to a Permanent Solution", is an effort of the official Tirana to carefully balance between the West and Pristina, wishing to satisfy both or at least not to make any of these parties angry.

According to this concept, borders of former Yugoslavia or what is called its territorial integrity would remain intact and the Albanians would make their dream come true not to be subordinated to Serbia any more. However, if in the West they have any reason to be satisfied or undisturbed by the official Tirana, regardless of the fact that the third republic still sounds utopistic or as too radical for the ears of Western diplomats, in Pristina it does not sound like that, because for an ordinary Albanian who lives in any village or twon of Kosovo to live in rump Yugoslavia or in Serbia is all the same.

Although in the past elections in Kosovo, all the parties in Albania have expressed support to Rugova and his political group, it was insufficient to avoid the existing differences on the two sides of the border between Tirana and Pristina. Nano openly declared that "maximalistic demands which Ibrahim Rugova was forced to articulate and upon which I look with understanding, may make achievement of a lasting and peaceful solution for Kosovo more difficult". On the other hand, the Albanian press quote statements of Rugova and Bukoshi on independence of Kosovo almost every day. Not without nervousness, Bukoshi even answered Nano that citizens of Kosovo themselves would decide about the future status of Kosovo, who could accept no "fait accomplit" regardless of where it was coming from, therefore, not even from Tirana.

However, the gap between the official Tirana and the official Pristina is even less deep than the one between the official Tirana and other radical political groups in Kosovo or even in Tirana. The reason that Tirana in the past elections openly supported Rugova should be sought in the fact that Tirana, as well as centres of decision-making needed a clear and undoubtable mandate of Rugova which was questioned by his rivals in Pristina, but also by his critics in Tirana and sceptics in the West. After 22 March, it was reconfirmed that the person for negotiations was Rugova.

If externally Tirana continues to walk on the balance-beam between Pristina and the West, internally it is trying to manoeuvre between moderate diplomacy and growing nationalism. If it seemed in the beginning that the flag of nationalism was taken by Berisha but who did not keep it for long as it seemed after an advice from abroad, at present various nationalistic groups and personages from the past reappeared on the scene, among other former president Ramiz Alija. Having interrupted his almost three-year long silence, in an interview which was fully devoted to Kosovo, Alija declared that "recognition of the republic of Kosovo as a sovereign and independent state should fully be supported".

Having stepped out of the airplane which had brought him back to Tirana from Bonn, the Albanian prime minister could not after all state the phrase "Im Westen Nichts Neues". But, even if there are no news from the West, sad news are arriving from the Balkans. Casandras born in the Balkans, but who nobody ever listened to, are predicting even sadder news. If the conflict in Kosovo breaks out, it might in the very beginning easily spread to Macedonia and Albania. The delicate ethnic balance in the former, and the fragile political balance of the latter could very easily be shaken. Avalanche of refugees from Kosovo would pour into Albania, but the Albanian refugees would also move further on towards Greece, the Albanians in Macedonia would not sit on their hands, and nobody knows whether Bulgaria and Greece could remain outside this fire.

Be that as it may, the Albanians are fixing their eyes upon the West in expectation, but in the next four weeks there will be no news from the West.

AIM Tirana

Remzi LANI