THE UNPREDICTABLE KOSOVO REALITY

AIM Pristina, March 26, 1998

The latest events in Kosovo are a matter of grave concern among the Serbian population. In addition to initial panic and fear, mostly because they were not properly informed on the developments in these areas and after situation stabilized, one dominant and several alternative opinions concerning the most recent events prevail among the local population.

Pessimistic feelings are predominant after the signing of the Protocol on the return of the Albanian school and university children to educational institutions and the "behaviour" of Milosevic and the Serbian Government is considered as betrayal of Kosovo and Metohija.

It is further claimed that in his well-known style, Milosevic has ignored the problem for years, frozen the situation after 1990 and essentially done nothing to resolve the problem of disloyal Albanians. He is resented for allowing the work of Albanian political parties, their unhindered propaganda and communications with the world despite their clearly stated intention to secede from the territory of Serbia/Yugoslavia. He is condemned for permitting the work of "illegal" parallel university and also for allowing the printing of a large number of Albanian dailies and magazines which freely and without any censorship advocate the concept of independent Kosovo. Generally speaking, he is accused for having maintained the status quo and putting Kosovo in the focus of attention of the international public by his failure to resolve the situation.

The fact that time after time he has started something, acted hastily and left things "half finished" and thereby attracted the attention of the entire world public which now wants to prevent new Bosnia in these parts is also held against him.

The majority of the population thinks that the signing of the Agreement on Education without any specifications as regards curricula and syllabi, diplomas and Serbia's jurisdiction over the education of the Kosovo Albanians represents nothing else but treason. Despite the fact that the communal and party (SPS) structures boycotted the rally and the general opinion that it should be ignored as someone else organized it, about 30 thousand students, pupils and citizens gathered at the rally to express their support to the stands of the Serbian University.

The implementation of such an Agreement on Education is, to say the least, doomed to obstruction. The administration of the Pristina University publicly rejected the Agreement, and on the other hand, there are indications that the Albanian side is also displeased with it. It is to be expected that the "Three Plus Three" Committee will have a hard time implementing every little piece of this Agreement and there are already speculations that it will be in session continually in order to be able to adapt to the situation which will be, more or less, forced upon it. There are plenty of reasons for this since, irrespective of the official opposition of the University administration, students' organizations have announced that they will seize the premises. There is also a possibility of state repercussions against Rector Radivoje Papovic and protest leaders.

A large number of students of this University are from the surrounding regions (Northern Montenegro, Sanjak, Toplica, the Leskovac and Nis region). After all they have experienced in Kosovo in the last ten years, they are not too eager to study together, especially not within the set deadlines. The impressions students from Serbia and Montenegro, as well as Kosovo students in general have of the Albanians and of the Albanian students in particular, are such that joint studies, accommodation and use of canteen, as envisaged by this Protocol, can be compared only to cats and dogs living in the same cage.

For eight years now two ethnic communities have been living in Kosovo together, side by side, without any common ground. In the meantime they have evolved, but neither is aware of the changes that have occurred with the other. Two parallel concepts of life and study have been created and it is practically impossible at this moment to bring them any closer without provoking serious negative reactions of the both. It seems that the signing of this Agreement is nothing else but open declaration of the willingness of both sides to work on the problem and thereby appease America and the EU which demand progress. It appears that the Commission "Three Plus Three" was aware of these facts and therefore left open a possibility of departing from the original solution through the construction of new facilities and, in accordance with that, organization of separate studies, accommodation and canteens.

It is realistic to expect that the implementation of the Agreement on Education will be possible only after summer vacations and extensive preparations of both sides, naturally provided that the situation doesn't deteriorate in the meantime (!?).

In the meantime, a rather complicated entrenched ideological-political and national differentiation is in progress. Namely between:

• "hard-line national wing" - a stream within the Kosovo SPS, formally loyal to Milosevic;
• "the SPS of Kosovo and Metohija" - Milosevic and the SPS headquarters;
• "the Kosovo Serbs" - Belgrade.

It is difficult to view such a situation in the context of the Republic of Srpska because Rector Papovic could hardly be considered a Krajina descendant. The SPS hard-line wing in Kosovo practically doesn't have its front man and its stands reflect a deeply-rooted tacit agreement of sorts among a wide group of influential people. Also, the wing formally loyal to Milosevic could hardly be expected to put forward some kind of Kosovo Dodik and thereby find itself in between the devil and the deep blue sea: Milosevic and the international community breathing down his neck, on the one side, and the local Serbian population on the other.

The dissatisfaction of the Serbs is great and few are those who do not entertain the idea of going to Serbia or abroad. However, larger migrations should not be expected. Despite very difficult situation the events in Kosovo are still of "low intensity" and there is no urgent problem that could trigger off the people to start towards Serbia. A number of those "better-off" Serbs have flats or houses in Serbia, but the problem is employment. Considering the acute recession in Serbia it very unlikely that a larger number of the Kosovo "cadres" will be able to find jobs and relocate themselves in Serbia. Actually, a majority of the Kosovo Serbs have no real prerequisites to leave these parts. In the meantime, those who could, sent their children away and brought them back when the situation stabilized.

The fact that the Radicals have joined the Government can only partially pacify the rage the local Serbs feel towards Milosevic. Under such circumstances things are not observed rationally, only emotionally. The participation of the Kosovo Radicals in the Government should serve as a guarantee that the new Government will not treat Kosovo as a hot potato, but will fully respect the interests of the Kosovo Serbs.

The Serbian population in Kosovo is mostly unaware of the Albanian version of the events or of the civilian victims which are only mentioned in police reports and statements of the Serbian Government. On the other hand, it seems that the activities of the OVK members, as they call themselves, continue in the villages around Decane. Its statements show that it has consolidated its ranks and will not so easily give up further actions.

On the other hand, some better informed Serbs who view the whole situation more rationally, are of the opinion that in the eyes of the international community the Serbian side has lost the information and propaganda war to the Albanian side. It is also considered that the Serbian side did not show and extend sufficient attention towards foreign journalists who have come to Kosovo in great numbers.

The situation is expected to improve with the Radicals joining the new Government. It is also expected that the much talked-about alternative Serbian Information Centre - SPOT will start working. Under the present circumstances the group around bishop Artemije has a negligible influence on the local Serbs, but its international activities are followed with approval.

Many Serbian intellectuals in Kosovo do not rule out a possibility that all that has happened there in the last several months was not quite spontaneous and in this context there is mention of a decisive influence of "someone very powerful" (in the West). There are opinions that both the Albanian and Serbian side have been receiving double and false signals which is leading the overall situation in an unwanted direction and that the ultimate objective is, perhaps, the expansion of NATO to the East under the pretext "of isolating a potentially very dangerous hotbed of war in the Balkans". Such reasoning is also corroborated with increasingly frequent attacks on the police and the escalation of conflicts between the MUP members (Ministry of the Interior) and those who call themselves the OVK (Liberation Army of Kosovo) just before the Contact Group meeting which resembles incidents in the Vase Miskina Str. and the Markale market in Sarajevo. This group of people has noticed and pointed to the prevailing atmosphere which the independent Belgrade media, led by the daily "Nasa Borba" and magazine "Vreme", write about. They also transmit the opinion of a number of civil organizations which after a protracted period of silence have woken up and voiced their opinion about the Kosovo events. Broader Yugoslav public is not informed about this because these papers are mostly disregarded here.

The overall situation had a rather negative reflection on the economic activity. Money flow has practically ceased. Economic activities of state firms have been radically reduced. No one expects any new investments or money inflow until the situation settles down. Business activities of the Albanians have also stopped. Their main line of business was construction. They generally trade in home appliances, fixtures and electrical devices and fittings; and they produce bricks, tiles, paneling, joinery, etc. i.e. all that had anything to do with building of houses and housing in general. Now, no one is willing to invest in the construction of a family house and the real estate activities have also come to a standstill. Recession has set in other economic activities so that a large number of coffee shops and restaurants have been temporarily closed. Practically, only the food sector is working normally.

Events rapidly follow one another and in all likelihood this will continue so for some time to come. It is hard to tell where will this all lead us...

AIM Pristina

Slavisa MARIC