ARE THEY AFRAID OF WAR IN TIRANA?

AIM Tirana, 23 March, 1998

Serbian massacres from the beginning of March in Drenica in Kosovo freed a strong feeling of nationalism in Albania. Coincidence in time, proportions and ethusiasm of massive protests in Tirana and Skopje aroused even the most torpid diplomats in the West reminding them that calculations about the significance of the Albanian factor in the Belkans may not have been precise. The sparking protest in Tirana which gathered together even two mortal enemies, the ruling Socialist Party and the oppositionist Democratic Party, ended by war cries "We want guns". This militant background sounded somewhat absurd in the country in which at least one million of weapons of various calibres are still in circulation, which were robbed from army storehouses during last year's chaos in Albania. A foreigner who visited Tirana that day could have imagined 60 thousand Albanians who were gathered at the main square of the Albanian capital that day going to army depots after the protest to put on uniforms and hang guns on their shoulders, and then set out towards the northern front. It would be enough to add the Albanians in Skopje and they would form a numerous army marching to join the warriors in Kosovo. However, is this impression correct and are they really afraid of war in Tirana?

The great number of protesters at the square because of Kosovo and especially the unusual attendance shoulder to shoulder of president Meidani and the former president Berisha, two bitter opponents, was a clear signal that the smell of gunpowder had reached Tirana. Apart from pain and solidarity with the massacred compatriots in Kosovo, the danger of direct threat of war was also felt in Albania.

Meidani's speech was resolute, but with carefully chosen terms in order to preserve the known diplomatic guidelines. The position of the official Tirana was similar to it during all these days full of tension which intensified visits of diplomats and traffic at Rinas airport. On the other hand, Berisha, as expected, electrified the square by his speech greatly charged with emotions, which was warmly welcomed even by followers of the government coalition at the protest. "One nation, one stand" when uttered by Berisha was much closer to the strong reaction of the threatened Albanians than the speech given by Meidani. It is understandable that being in the opposition gives the Democratic Party the possibility to be sharper in its stands concerning the Albanian issue, while for easily imaginable reasons the government in Tirana must strictly stick to diplomatic vocabulary.

If we go back just a little into the past, the former opposition which is now in power was always half-hearted, in some instances even deaf and dumb about the problems in Kosovo, while Berisha, when he was the president, was often attributed to be a nationalistic leader. This gap was so deep that some analysts largely linked the fall of Berisha's government to his stand on Kosovo.

The new politicians who came to power on 29 June 1997, Fatos Nano inclusive, needed a comparatively long time to clarify to themselves the problems between Pristina and Belgrade. This is the reason why there have been several sporadic reactions in European diplomatic circles which expressed fear of possible influence Berisha could have on Kosovo which might stir up passions over there. But this certainly cannot shake the convinction that the destiny of war and peace in Albania depends much more on the position of Fatos Nano and his canbinet. Although tensions in Kosovo are slowly easing, incessant arrivals of western emissaries in Albania and their quick departures after meetings with the prime minister are signs that the danger of a conflict is equally present as on the day of the beginning of the massacre committed by the Serbs.

In the meantime, the official Tirana made it clear that it demands powerful intervention of the international community in order to force Belgrade to sit down and seriously negotiate with Pristina. If there is a single point in the policy of Albania concerning which all the parties absolutely agree, it is exclusion of Tirana from a possible armed conflict. Former president Berisha, known for sharp and irreconcilable attitudes towards his political opponents in power, perhaps for the first and the last time publicly defended the government by rejecting all speculations that Albania was preparing for war. This means that there is no serious political background in Tirana which could contribute to lighting up the fuse of a possible conflict. Not because the Albanian military potentials are inferior to the Serbian army, but because of weakened stability of the country due to last-year's riots.

It is true that the Albanians on this side of the border are not distinguished by a strong nationalistic feeling which could create the image of a mob ready to go to war for Kosovo. At the time of the status quo of false peace in Kosovo, it was possible to count the Albanians who were truly interested in developments in Pristina on the fingers of one hand. In the meantime, a large mass of people has been created who are reasoning cool-headedly about the very complex problem of Kosovo, like about a problem very close to them. There is also a small group of people in Albania, who under influence of the anti-Kosovo campaign in the past few years, can be considered to be completely detached from the Albanian national problems; they are people who looked upon Kosovo just as they looked upon Bosnia. This group creates the impression that there is no foundation for lighting the war fuse in Albanian. However, the extraordinary presence of protestants at the rally in Tirana shows that this balance has been disturbed, because it can confirm the absence of just a small group of cosmopolitans. More than the conclusion that it is because the justice is on their side, the Albanians poured into the squares of Albania stimulated also by the instinct of defence from a joint threat. This means that the Albanians feel threatened by the same factor which massacred women and children in Drenica. Convinced that their compatriots were victims of ethnic cleansing, it is not difficult for the people in Albania to imagine a war which can be started by the same aggressors against them too.

The conflict is perceived in different ways in Albania, but always as undesirable, so that the reaction of the Albanians is in fact a reaction against war. It is not a pure coincidence that even the most indifferent stratum concerning the national issue in Albania has also raised its voice against the possible consequences of a conflict. Various analysts have stressed as a serious threat the possibility of arrival of an avalanche of refugees from Kosovo. Even in case Albania managed to avoid direct engagement in the conflict, it would be threatened by its consequences, just as terrible as the war itself.

At the time when military and police actions of the Serbs continued in Srbica, the Albanian press was highly sensitive to all military and police movements at the border with rump Yugoslavia. Newspapers wrote about reinforcements of the Serbs at the border with Albania and about putting Albanian military forces on the alert at the north. Exaggerated attention paid to these operations by the press indicates a specific growing of the alarm in Tirana because of the possibility of becoming involved in a war.

Although everybody in Albania is afraid of an armed conflict, voices of militant nationalism are in an absolute minority. Connections with Kosovo in Albania are weaker than in Macedonia, where apart from strong ties of kinship, the Albanians are interconnected by the same political destiny once in former Yugoslavia and nowadays in two states which they consider to be hostile to them. That is why the image of masses which are hurrying to get armed in military barracks in Tirana is not true, but everything can change if instead of a negotiating table, bayonets of Milosevic's policemen and soldiers come closer to the Albanians in Kosovo again. If caravans of desperate refugees banished from their homes in Kosovo happen to cross the Albanian border, nothing will be impossible.

AIM Tirana

Astrit PATOZI