The West and Montenegro

A Thorn in Milosevic's Side

AIM Podgorica, 24 March, 1998

In just one week, the new Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic spoke to respectable personages of world diplomacy such as Robert Gelbard, Evgeni Primakov, Hubert Vedrine and Claus Kinkel. Undoubtedly, after almost eight years of abstention, Montenegro has become an esteemed interlocutor and unavoidable factor in the proverbially unstable region of the Balkans. Robert Gelbard would say, it is also "an example how things should be done in the right way".

"The United States are extremely encouraged by the positive evolution in Montenegro, both in the sense of consolidation of democratic institutions and in the sense of moving towards powerful development of market economy. The US government wishes closely to cooperate with Montenegro in offering support to such development", Clinton's envoy for the Balkans was precise after the talks with the Montenegrin president. He explained that these are the very reasons due to which the USA are advocating exclusion of Montenegro from the new sanctions for FRY and stated that "what is happening to Montenegro is an example of what should also be happening in other places in FR Yugoslavia"!

By what has the Montenegrin state policy, personified by president of the Republic Milo Djukanovic, succeeded in imposing itself and becoming an unavoidable station in all Balkan tours of world diplomats?

The simplest answer to that question could be found in the fact that what is happening in Montenegro, if Serbia is taken as the reference point, seems almost unreal. From the level of the state, Montenegro has proclaimed a powerful development of democratic institutions and market economy, and when somebody has such aspirations, especially in the environment such as Montenegro, it is only understandable that it catches the eye of those who in such behavior see the only hope for the region. It is, therefore, no wonder that the usually reserved USA are so openly backing president Djukanovic.

"Montenegro is at this moment the measure of pressure exerted on Slobodan Milosevic. Its policy means deviation from national, chauvinist, conservative policy of Belgrade. It is ready to adapt to rules of the international community and international relations, contrary to Milosevic who does not wish to do it", explains Nebojsa Vucinic, professor of international public law at the Law School in Podgorica.

The West has, with no doubt, firmly decided to help Djukanovic, such as he is, because he is the last hope and proof that it is possible to pursue a different policy in Milosevic's state. Gelbard himself confirms this when he says: "We hope that the Montenegrin reformist and democratic efforts will not end only on the territory of Montenegro, but that they will become predominant as policy on the entire Yugoslav political territory". Moreover, a whole set of political and other aid of the USA to Montenegro, was confirmed by Djukanovic, "motivated by the intention of the total international community which wishes to accelerate predomination of this policy in FRY".

Slobodan Milosevic, the Westerners assessed, needs additional clarification. That is why French foreign minister Hubert Vedrine sent word to Djukanovic that he counts on the influence he is able to exert in the Federation, "in order to have the solution which is in the true interest of FR Yugoslavia prevail".

The fact that the intention of Western diplomats coincided with what Milo Djukanovic in the very beginning of his mandate proclaimed as his own goal, additionally decoded the strategy. The small Montenegro, esteemed by the international community, recognized as the example of positive processes in the region, exempted from punitive measures introduced to discipline Belgrade, with the president whose policy corresponds to the Western - has a terribly difficult task to show the way to its federal partner.

Whether Djukanovic and his allies have taken into account the normative and what is even more important, actual power of Montenegro to influence creation of policy on the federal level, for the time being has not been precisely explained. It is a fact that in both variants, such a mission is destined to fail. Imperial power which Slobodan Milosevic has seized and the relation of forces in the federal parliament which suits him perfectly warrant him peaceful dreams. Djukanovic's undermining from within and Western pressure from without at this moment are up against an unsurmountable obstacle of unlimited power of the head of the federal state.

Whether Djukanovic has informed the Western allies that Montenegrin (lack of) power in the Federation is the result of the past policy of Montenegrin authorities in which he himself had played a prominent role is less important at this moment. It is a fact, though, that Montenegro, despite propagandist works of art of its president, has neither the mechanisms nor the power to keep Slobodan Milosevic under control.

"I would not say that Montenegro is an extremely powerful factor, but it is not unimportant either. In Montenegro there is an attempt to arouse the bud of democratization in Serbia, which is articulated by the parties and the citizens in the sense that something must also be done in Serbia", says Prof. Dr. Vucinic.

This was probably what the representatives of the international community had in mind when they decided to back Montenegro. Western allies are obviously trading on all the available forces. And Montenegro, as long as it is a member of Milosevic's federation, can be if not decisive but certainly a disturbing factor for the moves of the Serb leader. It is necessary for the West as an example of cooperativeness which is not even hinted at by Milosevic. It is necessary also because of its official stand on resolving the problem of Kosovo which clashes with that of Milosevic whenever he stresses that it is a Yugoslav problem. Finally, and perhaps the most important thing is that the alliance of Montenegro is desirable even when the final goal is outlined such as, highly probably, overthrowing of Slobodan Milosevic.

The awareness that Montenegro wishes to participate in all that undoubtedly will make the international community ask for its assistance in the future whenever the regime in Belgrade starts to defy the whole world. The logic according to which it is certain that Montenegro will always be a thorn in Milosevic's side, when it cannot do anything more, is sufficient to make the smaller federal unit of FR Yugoslavia a factor which the West can rely on in the future.

Nebojsa REDZIC