Decision on Brcko Postponed

Cue for the Elections

AIM Banja Luka, 18 March, 1998

The decision of the arbitration tribunal for the dispute concerning the interentity border in the region of Brcko to postpone the final decision on the status of this city until the end of this or the beginning of next year has not dramatised the political circumstances in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Political reactions in both entities to this decision of the international arbiter Roberts Owen could be brought down to the concept of - restrained discontent.

Maintenance of the status quo in the region of Brcko could have been anticipated in Republica Srpska after the final round of stating arguments in which, on the Serb side, prime minister Dodik showed up in front of the arbiter. From the circles close to the government, a few statements for the public were issued after that announcing such a possibility, which was a sign for the better informed part of the public that such a solution was indirectly expected. This considerably tempered the first reactions to this decision.

Reactions of national parties in both entities show a somewhat higher intensity of discontent which can be interpreted as the logical consequence of the fact that Brcko is almost the last national political argument in the hands of those who have produced this problem. For Ejub Ganic, president of the B&H Federation, "postponement of justice is deprivation of justice" and defeat of democratic forces, and for Muhamed Filipovic, president of the Liberal Bosniac Organisation, "political speculation from without and opposed to the stands from Dayton". On the Serb side, the similar rhetoric is used by Momcilo Krajisnik, member of B&H presidency, and Predrag Lazarevic, president of the Serb Party of Krajina and Posavina. For Krajisnik, introduction of temporariness in the status of Brcko is contrary to the Dayton accords and "a compromise with Ms. Plavsic and the Muslim party which had supported her power", and for Lazarevic "an insult for all participants of the arbitration" and lack of confidence in the new government which should submit its resignation because of it.

Not even the parties of Social Democratic orientation in RS wish to give up on Brcko. Their reactions end with hackneyed much repeated phrase about the "spirit of the Dayton accords" and expectations that Brcko will remain in RS (Zivko Radisic). Quite a different commentary of the decision on Brcko arrived from Zlatko Lagumdzija, president of the Social Democratic Party of B&H. According to him, Brcko will belong to the authorities and the people who will be able to show that B&H exists as a democratic and multiethnic community in their space.

Reactions of the leaders of political parties show clearly that the decision on Brcko is received solely as an immediate cause for pre-election testing one's strength against others. No matter how much this solution was expected and seemed acceptable, the decision will not be of much use to the president of the Republic and the new government of RS. Hard-core nationalists (Serb Democratic Party and the Radicals) have not yet reacted, but it can be expected with certainty that they will use uncertainty concerning Brcko as a good election cue in their strategy for destroying the president of the Republic and prime minister Dodik as the most powerful rivals in the forthcoming elections. The message of Krajisnik that due to such a decision Plavsic and Dodik should submit their resignations announces a sharp showdown with "traitors of national interests and collaborationists". The signatories of the decision were aware of such political consequences of their decision, so in the statement for the public they saw fit to declare that the tribunal would have "transferred Brcko from RS into the Federation" had the political leadership of the SDS remained in power.

With such an explanation, the legal decision on the status of Brcko was shifted to the sphere of pure politics and it has become a means to force domestic politicians listen to reason, who are used to never having to implement anything they have signed. The use of arbitration for achievement of political goals, from the standpoint of jurisprudence can be considered to be abuse of law, but on the other hand, it is clear that without it, it is impossible to efficiently implement the Dayton accords. This was best understood by Biljana Plavsic, who on the third day after this decision was made public, from the screen of state television, had to explain to the public that a different decision on Brcko "probably would not have been possible", reminding of the protests of the people in Brcko, Molotov cocktails thrown at SFOR soldiers and other forms of obstruction of former authorities in implementation of the Dayton accords.

Plavsic, Dodik and the Socialists will have to prove to the voters in the election campaign to what limit their cooperativeness will go and what will be the final price of the promised international aid which is slow in arriving. The ordinary public is already fed the story from the opposition sources that the promised aid will wait for the election results and that promises are not made out of sincere intentions but that they conceal political blackmail.

For the citizens of Brcko, among whom there are about 18 thousand refugees, and for the citizens of Brcko who have fled from their homes, who hope that there will be joint and peaceful life in Brcko, uncertainty continues. The intention of the international community to verify, by postponing the solution, the promise of Dodik's government that it would introduce significant reforms in Brcko, appears to be a double-edged sword. Refugees in the name of whom every politics concerning Brcko is pursued, do not have time to wait.

Expectations that in the forthcoming elections, another Dodik will be born in the Federation, the closest to whom for the time being is Lagumdzija, and that new political circumstances will enable painless acceptance of the status of Brcko, are not realistic at the moment. The argument that it was not realistic to expect the government of prime minister Dodik in Republica Srpska either, leaves hope.

Branko Peric