Macedonia and the Developments in Kosovo

Fear of "Reflections"

AIM Skopje, 8 March, 1998

The tragedy going on in Kosovo in the past several days has caused great concern in Macedonia. Fear is even greater because the most pessimistic scenarios of the crisis in Kosovo were forecast to the Macedonian public, in the attempt to hold the attention of the international public as a guarantee that something like that will, after all, not be permitted to happen. However, now when such scenarios have actually started to happen, it is becoming clear to everyone in Macedonia that even the international community is not omnipotent and that even it cannot prevent what seems senseless to all sensible people. Even the story about the "corridor for Kosovo refugees" which was topic number one in the domestic public last month, nowadays when the possibility of its coming to life is becoming a reality, is not even mentioned by anyone! Even if some people joked on account of the loud reflections of the Macedonian president, now they are wishing it had never even been mentioned, least of all that it may happen.

Based on the reports which are coming from the Macedonian border it can be concluded that fear of the corridor may have been exaggerated, but that the possibility of its effectuation cannot be disregarded either. A week after the beginning of the latest crisis in Kosovo with tragic consequences, not a single refugee was registered on the territory of Macedonia. This was confirmed by a representative of UN High Commissioner of Refugees in Skopje, however, at the same time it was possible to learn that the Macedonian Red Cross and related organizations in cooperation with the UNHCR were getting ready to receive possible refugees from Kosovo. There has even been much talk about the possibility of construction of a special improvised reception centre from where refugees would be forwarded to other countries, and construction of a field hospital in the vicinity of the border with Kosovo has also been mentioned. The possibility of receiving refugees was also confirmed by the minister of defence of Macedonia who stressed that reception would be limited to women and children.

All this shows that despite the explicit wish, Macedonia cannot avoid certain consequences imposed on it by the crisis in Kosovo. It can be said that awareness about it has caused a certain shock in the Macedonian public. A part of the reason for this shock lies in the fact that all this is happening at the time when conviction was established that after the Dayton accords and establishment of peace in Bosnia, the international community would not permit any adventure of the current Serbian regime, especially not in Kosovo. Unfortunately, the "denial" has arrived in the least expected form and showed to those who believed in something else that the Balkans have a long way to go before its European dream even started to come true. Disappointment in Macedonia is even greater because it has just started to take its first steps in this direction, although they are still too tiny to reach the ultimate goal. Nevertheless, the agreement on cooperation with the European Union and the beginning of the so-called "political dialogie" are valuables for Macedionia which might "break" as the result of the crisis in its immediate neighbourhood.

This situation is even more complicated for Macedonia because of its ethnic composition in which the Albanians form one fourth. Starting from the fact that spiritual connection between the Albanians in Kosovo and those in Macedonia is evident, and that some kind of a spirituial link exists also between the Macedonians and the Serbs, the Serbian-Albanian conflict in Kosovo threatens to directly reflect on Macedonia. A foundation for something like that already exists, and it has especially "successfully" been created in the past few years when a series of great misunderstandings and even conflicts occurred between, conditionally speaking, two nations, often even with tragic consequences. Another misunderstanding occurred a few days ago when the Albanians decided to organize protests as a sign of support to their brethren in Kosovo and against repression of the Serbian regime over the innocent population in this part of the Balkans.

Organized by two greatest political parties which gather the Albanians in Macedonia, Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) which participates in the current coalition government of Macedonia and the Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA), a central protest took place on 6 March in Skopje which gathered several ten thousand Albanians from all parts of the country. This gathering addressed the international community with a memorandum on Kosovo in which its enagagement was demanded in order to interrupt war operations and prevent genocide of the Albanians in Kosovo, to instigate proceedings at the Hague tribunal against those who ordered the massacre of innocent people, and to recognize legitimate demands of the Albanians for independence of Kosovo. The main message from this gathering was that the Albanians in Macedonia expressed solidarity with the Albanians in Kosovo and that all the Albanians, wherever they lived, would jointly defend Kosovo. This memorandum, was handed to the Yugoslav embassy in Skopje, but through the mail-box because the Yugoslav ambassador refused to receive the delegation of the Albanians. Moreover, the Yugoslav embassy issued a statement for the public in which it assessed this gathering as "interference in the internal affairs of Yugoslavia". On the other hand, the Yugoslav embassy stressed good relations with Macedonia and expressed hope that "the Republic of Macedonia would condemn separatism and terrorism in Kosovo and that it would prevent interference of some of its factors in internal affairs of the FRY".

Since it is known who are "some of its factors", the Macedonian government can do nothing but invent a way to prevent activities of one of its parts (the PDP which participates with five ministers out of the total of 20) which has united with the other part of the Albanian political corpus in Macedonia, that is with the DPA, although the two are not at all very fond of each other. To be precise, the Macedonian government, or rather the main member of the coalition, the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), disassociated itself from the protest of its coalition partner although "its minister" had approved of the gathering. It is not quite clear what will be the consequences of these shifts on the internal political scene in the beginning of an election year, but it is certain that they will greatly be influenced by the developments in Kosovo. Although it is difficult to imagine that the crisis in Kosovo will spread to Macedonia, something like that should not be completely excluded for the time being either. As an illustration of this "evil spirit", the case which occurred during the mentioned gathering should be mentioned. A group of young members of the VMRO organized a "counter-rally" just about ten metres away from the "Albanian protest", and there was a "close encounter" in which there were fist fights but fortunately without use of any "accessories". Macedonian police, assisted by men of common sense, with great pains managed to pacify the incident which could have had unforeseeable consequences, but it should be mentioned that this case, although harmless, is one of the rare if not the very first one in which the Macedonians and the Albanians had a direct conflict with a political motive, without interference of the police. Almost all Macedopnian political parties were against solidarity of Macedonian Albanians with Kosovo Albanians, and their reactions were permeated by fear that this might bring great misfortune to Macedonia.

In such a situation when fear of escalation of the conflict in Kosovo is growing because it could have manifold consequences for Macedonia, conviction is also growing that the greatest comfort in the whole affair is in the fact that forces of the United Nations, UNPREDEP, are still present in this country. Their final mandate expires on 31 August, but in the current circumstances it is difficult to assume that this will actually happen. The officials of UNPREDEP are quite restrained in giving statements concerning their further stay in Macedonia, but it is possible to discern certain hesitation in their tone in comparison with the statements before the latest crisis in Kosovo. In view of the fact that their mandate includes stability in the region as well as inter-ethnic relations within the country, it is not difficult to assume that the crisis in Kosovo will directly affect the mandate of the international military forces in Macedonia. And what the consequences of this crisis will be on Macedonia and its internal stability, remains to be seen in the days which lay ahead, with the note that thes will directly depend on the epilogue of the crisis in Kosovo.

AIM Skopje

IBRAHIM MEHMETI