TUDJMAN'S MESSAGE TO SOCIAL DEMOCRATS

AIM ZAGREB, February 22, 1998

Just a day after he used unprecedented police forces

• officially 4,700 and unofficially some ten thousand policemen - in order to prevent an approximately the same number of demonstrators from getting to the central Zagreb square, at his Party's Congress Franjo Tudjman did not find it necessary to even mention social demands from that until now greatest street protest of this kind. For him these protests were exclusively the police matter, reduced to calculations as to how many protesters would appear in the streets. He boasted that he already knew that there would be no more than 15 to 20 thousand, and making a comparison with the Communist Party of Yugoslavia (KPJ) which needed only 12 thousand communists to organize an uprising, he pointed out to his Party all the dangers of even such a limited number. He dramatically warned that if the state bodies failed to do their part properly, the "mob" could easily "come into power".

Imagine, calling the Croats a mob! The omnipotent President obviously did not realize that he had thus declared the end of the Croatian "national revolution" initiated eight years earlier. And that means the beginning of new developments among the Croats occurring literally right under his nose, no matter how much he denied them. Indeed, these developments are still diffused and contradictory, which was also obvious at the protest gathering - where the slogans ranged from the Ustashi patriotic song "Here comes the dawn, here comes the day" and "HDZ, HDZ" to "Franjo - Saddam" and "Franjo - thief" - as well as during its preparations. The protest was organized by several trade union organizations and political parties of different orientation.

Tudjman's official ideologists immediately launched an attack against this motley group. They accused it that the desire to win power was that which brought them together so that the extreme rightists - "practically fascist" (the Party of the Right of Dobroslav Paraga and Ivan Gabelica) - and extreme leftists (Semina Loncar's Social-Democrats) gathered around the same table. Setting aside the fact that these accusation has come from the wrong quarters, they are essentially quite true. It is only necessary to add that key positions in this group were occupied by some avowed HDZ followers, like Niko Gunjin, President of the Croatian Trade Union Federation, who is even a HDZ member and was elected delegate at the HDZ Congress. His mandate was revoked immediately after the protests obviously because Tudjman was enraged by unexpectedly harsh criticism voiced against him by the protesters. In such situations he always finds a scapegoat who has to pay for everything.

But, before Gunjin received punishment from his own party, he managed to cause confusion among the parties which had organized the Zagreb protests. Several days before that he stated that only the HDZ was able to cope with the difficult social situation in Croatia, while the useless opposition was quite helpless. That is why the newly established Liberal Party of Vlado Gotovac did not join the organizers and the largest Racan's SDP and Radimir Cacic's small, but ambitious, HNS refused to directly participate in this gathering. Also, the greatest trade union association in Croatia - The Federation of Independent Trade Unions - which is of recent a sister-party to the Social-Democratic Party, decided not to be involved.

The absence of the SDP was noticed especially as it has, of late, been particularly active in the social field. Its leaders have discreetly intimated in their public statements and quite openly stated behind the scenes that the authorities were preparing a "rally of truth" in Zagreb with the intention of using it as a pretext for introducing a strong-hand policy. This assessment does not seem quite plausible especially in the light of the subsequent condemnation of the demonstrations by the HDZ Congress which adopted a special statement on the abuse of social issues for political purposes. The assessment was, after all, challenged even further by Racan who, refusing to appear as a guest at the HDZ gathering, accused it of seeking to settle social issues by further exacerbating them with hollow promises and use of brutal force.

Still, judging by all, there is some justification in the reserved stance of the SDP, Gotovac's LS and the others. This is testified not only by the already known partiality of a part of the trade unions who have now openly manifested their allegiance to the HDZ, but also by the behaviour of some of the ruling party's officials. On several occasions Boris Kunst, leader of the Association of the Workers' Trade Unions, who asserted himself as the leader of these protests, stated that the protests enjoyed the support of a highly-placed HDZ official (whose name he did not reveal). This produced speculations in the newspapers that it could be Zlatko Canjuga, one of the closest Tudjman's associates, and it was even claimed that he was the one to initiate the protests but had to withdraw because he got rapped on his knuckles from high above.

This sounds far fetched because the autonomy of action of Tudjman's closest associates (Canjuga is his personal advisor) does not go so far. However, it is not impossible that there were such attempts by those high HDZ officials who do not belong to the circle of the closest Tudjman's associates, especially the right wing ones (Seks, Milas, Vukojevic and, with more discretion, many others). These are men who basically do not share the HDZ ideology, as there is none, but are original rightists who from the founder of the movement of the right - Ante Starcevic - who is also called "the father of the homeland", have inherited elements of anti-clericalism and, what was in those days considered, left ideas (Starcevic supported the French Revolution).

That is why they are traditionally at war with those party colleagues who have sided with the HDZ mega-capitalists ("the tycoons"), and especially the Government (which they resent for the recent introduction of VAT which was given the most infamous name - "tax on poverty"). In earlier years there were speculations that this faction might conspire against Tudjman, but such expectations proved exaggerated, while the ideological charge of this faction diminished in the meantime. That is why in their statements Seks, Milas and the others only mentioned "creative dissatisfaction" with the present social situation. Nevertheless, at the same time they condemned organizers of the Zagreb protests even more harshly than the rival "liberal" HDZ faction (accusing them of causing chaos and taking over the reins of power without elections).

Consequently, if this faction supported the latest social unrest it was only with the aim of using it against trade unions and the opposition, as well as its opponents within the HDZ itself. Tudjman is not among their targets. On the contrary, the radicals probably wanted to curry favour with him by serving him the heads of the leaders of social riots on a platter. Naturally, Tudjman had nothing against it. Quite contrary, it seems that he encouraged the two factions within the HDZ to compete among themselves who will better protect his authority in the face of the rising dissatisfaction (at the same time the Government unsuccessfully tried to pit them against each other by inviting them to separate talks). There was yet another reason why it suited Tudjman for his party's right faction to spread its wings (and even for the extreme pro-Ustashi Ante Sapic's Party of the Right to go on a rabble-rousing expedition to Vukovar). Thus, he sent a message to the SDP and other parties of the left that he would "unleash his dogs" if they dared abuse the present social situation in the country for political purposes.

MARINKO CULIC