DJAPIC STIRRING UP "CONFIDENCE"

AIM Zagreb, 18 February, 1998

Last Monday, on 16 February, British ambassador in Croatia Colin Munroe uttered a short and simple sentence which clearly reflects the current circumstances in Croatian Podunavlje, a month after this territory has been abandoned by UNTAES. Munroe was answering to the question of journalists whether the main reason for emigration of the Serbs was of political or economic nature. "For the Croats there is no doubt that this is their land", he said. And added, "the Serbs, however, are not so sure about that". Munroe happened to be in Vukovar in the capacity of a member of the "Article 11" Committee, a group of ambassadors and representatives of international organizations which are monitoring implementation of the Erdut agreement. It is not necessary to be an exceptional connoisseur of the English diplomatic school attended by Munroe to understand the full bitterness of what he has said. American ambassador William Montgomery, in answer to the same question was even more direct: "If you ask me, the main reason (for departure of the Serbs) is that they do not fully believe that the Croatian government will carry out all the undertaken obligations", he said.

The "Article 11" Committee arrived in Vukovar just two days after Ante Djapic and his followers from the Croatian Party of Right had visited Vukovar in order to "stir up inter-ethnic confidence". This so far probably the most serious incident which took place in Podunavlje since 16 January when Croatian authorities took over full control of the region, was condemned not only by the mayor of Vukovar, Vladimir Stengl and the National Committee for implementation of the confidence-building program, but that very evening it was a topic discussed at the session of the Council of Defence and National Security chaired by Tudjman himself. At this session, as it was stated later, "it was repeated that the Croatian authorities and all the state agencies would continue with the policy which had led to successful completion of peaceful reintegration of Croatian Podunavlje, and it was stressed that the task of the state authorities was to ensure order, peace and security to all the citizens by consistent implementation of the laws and other regulations in the entire state".

That things are not going as they should is obvious from a series of developments which have happened in the past month. Stanimirovic and Pupovac, two most influential Serb politicians in Podunavlje, threatened to leave the National Committee for confidence building, aware that reality in the Danube river valley (Podunavlje) is far from the promises given generously by Croatian authorities, which had verbally done everything they could to make UNTAES leave on 15 January. The drop that spilled the cup of their patience was it seems the Decree of Croatian government on housing rent which put the Serbs in Podunavlje into a discriminatory position because it refers only to Podunavljje and not to the whole of Croatia. The right to acquire a housing unit in Podunavlje, pursuant this decree, was given to everybody who had lived in Croatian Podunavlje and used socially-owned housing units up to 31 March 1991. But, this right does not refer to other regions in Croatia (western Slavonia, territory of Knin krajina), which practically means that a Serb, who had, for example, lived in Knin until military action "Storm", in a socially-owned apartment, and later, as a banished person moved into a socially-owned apartment of a Croat refugee in Vukovar, now has to empty this apartment but has no right to go back to his own, in Knin. Due to pressure exerted by the international community, but also due to the announced withdrawal of Stanimirovic and Pupovac from the National Committee, the decree was withdrawn in the end. Then Tudjman received the mentioned two Serb politicians and probably offered them considerable guarantees which could change their decision to leave the National Committee.

What was really discussed at that meeting has not reached even the members of "Article 11" Committee, so the American ambassador Montgomery, during his stay in Vukovar, asked Stanimirovic what was the topic of the talks with Tudjman. Thanks to the indiscreteness, it leaked that Stanimirovic, allegedly, explained to the American ambassador that Tudjman had been told that reasons for departure of the Serbs were primarily of security, but there were those of economic nature as well. They mentioned the law on convalidity, numerous incidents and lack of political and media activities which would lead to easing of the pronounced tensions. To Montgomery's demand, Stanimirovic also stated the data on the proportions of emigration. He said that departure from the region was the most massive in December, before UNTAES left, but that it continued with almost the same intensity. Out of 127 thousand inhabitants who used to live on the UNTAES territory, only about 52 per cent have remained. Stanimirovic claims that activists of the Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS), by polls and census, established that out of 78 thousand domicile Serbs, i.e. inhabitants who had lived in the region before the war, about 20 thousand have left Podunavlje.

Excursions such as Djapic's when about two thousand of his supporters - with the known iconography, singing "Croat songs", saluting with their raised stretched out right arm and provocatively blowing their trumpets downtown Vukovar - strained the situation to the utmost and certainly will not contribute to pacification of the situation. The Croatian police had their hands full that morning trying to keep the spark from starting a fire, because in front of the cinema in Borovo naselje where Djapic's supporters had planned to go, a considerable number of the local Serb population had gathered, waiting to be issued Yugoslav visas. The close encounter could have turned into a serious incident, but the great number of policemen and their resoluteness prevented the worst from happening. Everything took place in front of the nose of the observers of international community, so that Croatia, at least for the time being, was lucky this time, because just a few days prior to Djapic's appearance in Vukovar, a comparatively favourable Security Council presidential statement arrived from the East River. It was established in it that "a lot remains to be done", especially on "protection of human rights", "including initiating activities against maltreatment", and "removing difficulties which are obstacles to return of banished persons and refugees". Djapic's excursion has not contributed to that, on the contrary, it added plenty of oil on the smouldering fire.

Djapic's arrival in Vukovar put the question the answer to which was also sought by members of Article 11 Committee - is the Croatian regime applying double standards in Podunavlje: public, declarative ones, which are on the track of implementation of the undertaken responsibility for the situation in Podunavlje and, the others, concealed ones, which are aimed at sending messages such as those Djapic conveyed to Vukovar. It is an established fact that Djapic does nothing accidentally, least of all on his own accord, and that he says out loud what the radical faction of the ruling Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) thinks. In his Vukovar episode, therefore, it is not unfounded to ask whether for what he was doing Djapic had a blessing of that not at all insignificant party faction of the HDZ which is itself dissatisfied with the Croatian policy towards Podunavlje, at least its public part, but dares not say it openly. The publicity given - formally due to the draft law on lustration

• in the past few weeks in controlled Croatian media - to Djapic is in a terrible disproportion with the significance of the party he heads, so that forcing Djapic obviously has a completely different political motive. It is difficult to observe his excursion to Vukovar separately from this context.

When the other reason of emigration is concerned - economic conditions in Podunavlje - things are equally bad. There are no exact data on unemployment, but data are circulating that only about ten per cent of the population of working age have some kind of a job. The general poverty and deprivation are an additional stimulus to those who have where to go to gather up their things and set out to seek their fortune elsewhere. The number of emigrants to the third countries is increasing, and Norway has become the hit. There are also many of those who are waiting for "papers" to go to Canada, Australia or New Zealand, and any other country which will have them. Reconstruction of Vukovar is proceeding slowly, and its devastated and almost completely destroyed economy has not been touched yet. The international community is willing to invest into the region only if it remains multiethnic and every dollar of aid is weighed on this balance. Croatia itself has no money of its own for significant financial injections which is certainly slowing down return of Croat nabanished persons. Even the few ones who intend to return to the city in ruins are willing to do it only if they get a reconstructed apartment and at least somekind of a steady job, better paid than the one they have now. What else could motivate them to come?

Once one of the most perosperous regions in former Yugoslavia - Croatian Podunavlje - is nowadays under the sword of Damocles of fate met by Knin krajina and a big part of western Slavonia. The Serbs are thinking about leaving, the Croats are in no hurry to return. Djapic's radicalism with two thousand weekend-returnees may be aimed at provoking only about one hundred new, accelerated emigrations from the region which Croatia, at least as concerning territory, had managed to reintegrate with great pains on 15 January. It will certainly not contribute to faster return of the Croats who are in no hurry to come to Podunavlje before normal conditions for life are created there. And there can be nothing of the kind if confidence is not established, which, again, cannot be built by saluting with stretched right arms, "Croatian songs" and hoisting flags which causes fear and anxiety in those who the flags are hoisted for.

DRAGO HEDL