Results of Dodik's Policy

Serb Penetration into the World

AIM Banja Luka, 20 February, 1998

Milorad Dodik will be remembered in history as the prime minister of the government (of an entity still!) who has in just twenty days of his mandate visited Germany, France, Austria and the United States of America, talked twice to Kinkel, met with ministers of ten odd European states, went to Sarajevo and was the first man from the state leadership of RS who visited Zagreb. The fact that four of his predecessors in five years have not managed to go on an official visit further than Belgrade best illustrates the scope of the political shift.

In these twenty Days, Dodik has established connections between entrepreneurs of Republica Srpska and Croatia and gathered in one place managers of steel works in Ljubija (RS), Zenica (B&H Federation) and Smederevo (Serbia). At the same time he promised quick opening of roads, railroads and telecommunications. As a verified pragmatic, Dodik speaks sincerely and he will do anything to meet what he has promised. If his intentions will be followed by the governments of Croatia, Serbia abd B&H Federation - just a month of Dodik's rule will be an enormous step forward in effectuation of the Dayton accords.

Dodik's penetration into the world confused the domestic and the world public which is, when protagonists on the Serb political scene are concerned, used to having all the talks end with undefined tension or agreements which are never implemented. Appearance of a new "player" who has understood the rules of the game well and who is aware that the time for the game is mercilessly slipping away, destroyed the image of a nation whose politicians understand only the logic of the stick.

The policy of cooperativeness and opening met with support and understanding of majority of the domestic political public. The Radicals who were bitterly opposed to Dodik's election, were the first to realise what trump cards the new prime minister has in his hands and recognised legitimacy of the government and declared that they would act as constructive opposition in relation to the policy of the government. To general surprise, the attacks on the government stopped even from the ranks of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS). In daily Oslobodjenje which is considered to be their party bulletin, the number of articles referring to the prime minister, the government and the president of the Republic, is decreasing, even the ones of purely informative content. That is how the domestic political scene is approaching some kind of a concensus when support to the political strategy of the new government is concerned.

The official Belgrade is continuing with the support it had offered Dodik immediately after inauguration. In the support they offer to state leadership of RS for the first time in Serbia, the regime and the opposition are in unison. The new state leadership of Montenegro has also made it clear that it stands on the positions of the political platform advocated by president Plavsic and prime minister Dodik.

For the analysts of political relations between Belgrade and RS, motives of support to Dodik's policy of opening to the world is more the result of economic necessity than of political commitment. It is claimed that Serbia is expecting to get a part of international resources which should flow into RS, which would partly alleviate its difficult economic situation and ensure social peace. In RS, on the contrary, fear is present that unified monetary market with Yugoslavia and its inflation could threaten economic stability of RS. That is why Rajko Tomas, economic advisor of the president of the Republic, recently declared that a double-currency system should be introduced in RS, warning that the "latest sudden rise of the exchange rate of the mark expressed in Yugoslav dinars was the result of obvious money issue and meagre foreign currency reserves of FRY".

With his realistic policy, Dodik won the inclination of the world and the domestic public, but he is risking to cause envy of those who are falling in the shadow of his policy. Dodik's intention to open the border with Croatia, establish traffic on the Save and begin with two-way return of refugees was not received well in Zagreb. The disposition of Zagreb is illustrated by the fact that Dodik with his delegation was detained at the Gradiska border crossing for three whole hours. The visit ended with the agreement that official delegations of experts continue negotiations about the questions of economic cooperation and return of refugees.

The Bosniac political and state leadership is suspicious and restrained in its assessment of the policy of the new government of RS. Signals of agitation and disapproval are arriving from Sarajevo due to the sudden shift of interest of international politics amd media from Sarajevo to Banj Luka. Dodik's statement in Vienna that Brcko must remain in RS and that his government will resign if the decision will be different, was received in Sarajevo with sharp criticism and dissatisfaction even among the opposition. The statement was interpreted as blackmail of the international community and deputies from the Federation threatened that they would deny their support. Dodik replied that Brcko will be a multiethnic town with multiethnic authorities and that there was no reason for taking it away from the jurisdiction of the authorities of RS. As an additional argument he declared that in his office he has the flag of B&H and that he was the first who put new licence plates on his car. Sarajevo weekly Oslobodjenje writes that Dodik is "a puzzle and a hope", stating doubt "that it could be just a new trick of Slobodan Milosevic". "Time will show who used whom and who has gained - the big boss who is on the descending line or the skilful pragmatist who is ascending", writes the commentator of Oslobodjenje.

Dodik's political philosophy of openness has introduced unexpected freshness into political circles. In his political rhetoric there are no vague messages, concealed intentions, calculations and political hackneyed phrases. To the interlocutors from the international community he clearly says that he will consistently and to the end implement the Dayton accords even when return of refugees is concerned, but that it must be two-way because of 300 thousand Serb refugees (from Croatia and the Federation) who have occupied apartments and houses of the Bosniacs and the Croats. "In RS there are 300 thousand unemployed and the average salary is 70 German marks. How can those who return live in such conditions", says Dodik and demands that deeds be put before words, that is, that creation of economic and other conditions for return begin. At the Conference on return of refugees in Sarajevo, which Izetbegovic swallowed as a bitter pill, Dodik was unpleasantly clear: "It is an illusion to expect that refugees will be returned by those who have sent them away".

To representatives of the international community who are in charge of implementation of peace, Dodik made it clear that his interest was quick and efficient solution of all problems which are in the way to economic integration of the territory of the former state and integration of RS in the world. All the prepared proposals of the office of the High Representative which resulted from conclusions of the conferences held in Sintra and Bonn, were accepted by Dodik's government without significant comments. Such policy undermines the political strategy of national parties in the other entity which have built their cooperativeness on the unreasonable refusal of each and every offer by the Serb party, even when there was not a single understandable reason for it. It seems that a politician of Dodik's profile is not a welcome partner for political options which count on making political profit on the war and consequences of the war.

Dodik's policy of full cooperativeness with the international community comes as an unexpected aggravating circumstance for those who made profit of obstruction of his predecessors. This could reflect on "cooperativeness" of deputies from B&H Federation in the assembly without whose support Dodik's government cannot be stable, but also on the intention of Dodik's government to establish some sort of special relations with Croatia. That is why, more than support and financial assistance, Dodik's government will need a democratic environment with political openness.

When this journalist, before the last session of the national assembly of RS, asked Hans Schumacher when Dodik can be expected in B&H Federation, Croatia and Yugoslavia, he answered: "Turn has come for Izetbegovic and Tudjman".

Branko Peric