Serbia Still Without Its Government

Captain Mirko

After postponements of five months, Serbia still has not its government, but the mandatary prime minister is known. It is the former prime minister, Mirko Marjanovic, who will have to include members of the Serb Renewal Movement (SPO) in his cabinet and at least temporarily pretend that division of power exists. For the time being, Vuk Draskovic seems to be ready to agree to anything

AIM Belgrade, 20 February, 1998

In the first reaction to the news that president of Serbia Milan Milutinovic charged former prime minister Mirko Marjanovic with the mandate to form the new government, leader of SPO Vuk Draskovic did not conceal surprise. Draskovic, whose party is secretly negotiating with the Socialists for weeks already about the ways in which the new government would be formed, and who claimed just a few days ago that they had come at the distance of just "half a step to the final agreement", was suddenly caught by surprise by the news that his new coalition partners have chosen Marjanovic to be the prime minister again.

A few hours later, Draskovic claimed that he was not surprised any more. In the meantime he remembered that the post of the prime minister was not at all very important, that the most important thing was in fact the platform of the government which would act as a team, and that, after all, in a well trained team it was not at all important who wore the "captain's ribbon". It might as well be Mirko.

If in the SPO, the once most powerful opposition party on the Serbian political scene, they still remember anything that they until recently used to say about Marjanovic's government (for instance, that it was "cleptocratic"), the president of Serbia Milan Milutinovic will soon have to look for another candidate for prime minister.

To the allegations that "Marjanovic is a successful prime minister of a successful government", the old Vuk Draskovic (from the time when he fought and spoke in squares of Serbian cities) would have certainly answered with a counter-argument which was this time used by Vesna Pesic: "If they were a successful government and prime minister, what might the unsuccessful be like". Times have changed, of course, and Draskovic who has taken shelter and left city streets, is nowadays only half a step away form becoming part of the government of national unity which would be formed by the Left and the SPO.

The decision of the Socialists to push Marjanovic forward again was interpreted by many as a clear Milosevic's message that he in fact neither wishes nor knows how to share power with anybody, that his regime is not going to give up on the existing privileges and that there is no question about a true reform. The conclusion that can be drawn from this is that neither Draskovic nor his SPO are too important. The role they would be given, according to this logic, is that of a controlled accomplice in privileges. Such cooperation certainly implies more ministerial posts than New Democracy used to have in the previous government and a slightly higher price that would have to be paid for them.

If he assesses that direct support to Marjanovic's government could cost him further dropping out of the membership of his own party, Draskovic could decide in favour of silent support to a minority government which would be formed by the Left on its own. There would be no ministers of his in such a government, which does not mean that the SPO would not be able to ask for a lot in return for such a status, as the Radicals did in 1992. In this case, however, new elections would be much closer than the Socialists and the SPO wish them to be.

The candidacy of Mirko Marjanovic may, however, also mean the attempt of Milosevic to get rid of the former prime minister. Marjanovic and his government are officially given all recognition for successful work, although it is known in advance that SPO will not support them. Draskovic shows in this way that he too will have his say and that he is concerned that the reforms begin much sooner than the current prime minister is capable of doing. The Socialists would in that case offer a new candidate from among their ranks or they would reach a compromise with the SPO about Dusan Mihajlovic, president of New Democracy who is impatiently waiting in the shadow. Something like that would not be out of line of the previous stand of the very top of the SPS according to which the prime minister's post, due to exceptional importance, may be given solely to the Socialists or someone they can fully control.

No matter in what way they will get the new prime minister and his government, it will be a highly risky business for the coalition partners. Apart from that which they have in common (will for power, postponement of new parliamentary elections for as long as possible, and permanent elimination from political life of the parties which boycotted the elections, primarily of the shaky Djindjic), there still remains plenty of issues which separate them. This was best expressed by the spokesman of the Yugoslav United Left (JUL) Aleksandar Vulin who, just ten days ago, still rejected every possibility of a coalition between the Left and the SPO: "For parties to form a coalition, it is necessary to have at least a minumum of platform similarities. The Left which is committed to the idea of the republic cannot form a coalition with the SPO which advocates monarchy. How shall we explain that to the voters", Vulin wondered. The spokesman of JUL obviously belongs to the faction of the Left which is persistent in the demand of new elections. A part of the leadership of the SPS believes similarly, encouraged by the recent victory of Milan Milutinovic in the presidential elections, that now is the right moment to establish a mojority again in the assembly of Serbia and avoid any partnership with Draskovic and his "Chetniks".

Although Vulin believes that between the Left and the SPO there is not even a minimum of platform similarities, the future coalitian partners have in the meantime prepared a program of state and national revival in nine items. In this document, which certain regime media claim will have the power of a constitution, the Socialists are practically promising that in the future they will do what they have not done before

• make Serbia democratic, implement privatisation under control of the parliament, enable return to the international community... The SPO is also signing it all and, in the name of future coalition cooperation from the federal to the municipal level, it is not asking the logical question - who had prevented the Socialists to do so far what they are now promising in the nine items. In this quite general document (published so far just in outlines) the most specific is the story about the flags, coat-of-arms, holidays and national anthems, as if these are the only things that are necessary for the government of national unity in this bankrupt state to be able to operate normally.

At least in the beginning, the new coalition partners will have to be very cautious. A quick failure of such a coalition could cause considerable damage to the Soacialists in the next elections and Milosevic demands ultimate caution from his supporters. To the ordinary party members, the impression is suggested that the coalition with the SPO is just temporary, until they somehow "swindle Vuk", in other words that the situation is not at all different from the time when the government was patched up with ministers from New Democracy. In the SPS, however, they know only too well that this time the patchwork is not going to be similar, and that for the first time they have to quit claim of at least a part of their power and give it up to those who were until recently, due to their monarchism, anticommunism and Chetnikdom, considered to be the bitterest enemies of the Socialists. Draskovic's calculation is founded on the belief that he has tried everything so far and that finally time has come for him to try to overthrow the regime from within. At the same time he hopes that he could very quickly show his discontented membership that it is incomparably more prifitable to be inside or near the authorities than incessantly to charge at the regime from without.

The Draskovic's "half a step" to the new government could prolong until mid March. Coalition partners will at first most probably agree about platform principles on state and national revival. Then the state media will start explaining to the people that it is a historical agreement. During all that time, long and tedious talks will take place at the negotiating table about each and every post and sinecure. On the one side of the table will be negotiators whose strategy is "take everything Milosevic is ready to offer, because he rarely gives anything". On the other side will be the generous Left whose slogan is "here you are mostly nothing, so hold on to it firmly".

Nenad Stefanovic

(AIM)