A New Political Geography

Opposition in Turmoil

AIM Podgorica, February 15, 1998

In the last fifteen months the Montenegrin political scene has undergone radical changes. At one time, after the parliamentary elections in November 1996, five deputy clubs were established in the Montenegrin Parliament - The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the National Unity (NS), The Party of Democratic Action SDA), the Democratic Union of the Albanians (DUA) and the Democratic Union of Montenegro (DSCG). After winning the absolute majority in Parliament, the DPS was expected to sovereignly rule Montenegro, just like in the previous seven years. However, the last year's schism within the ruling party - primarily caused by a different stand of the DPS leaders towards Slobodan Milosevic and the SPS - served as a catalyst of the fundamental restructuring of the political forces in Montenegro.

The party monopoly evaporated with the formation of factions within the DPS and the creation of two deputy clubs in Parliament. This was a unique chance for the Montenegrin opposition to create space for itself to win power or at least to have a part in it by joining forces. Instead, new conflicts broke out within the opposition ranks as if the virus of separation which had infected the DPS, has spread onto the opposition. A year and a half after parliamentary election - instead of the former five - there are, both informally as well as officially and realistically, as much as eight deputy clubs in the Montenegrin Parliament. Once united, the DPS now has two deputy clubs, the National Unity produced three (the LSCG, the NS and the Bojovic's Group), and new changes can be expected after the war that has been declared within the SDA, at least regarding the composition of that party's deputy club.

In other words, instead of contributing to the closing of the opposition ranks the establishment of the second Montenegrin multiparty government has additionally accelerated the process of disintegration of the Montenegrin political scene.

Nobody was much surprised by the news on the disintegration of the National Unity. When the schism between the Liberals and the Populists was made public, that piece of information was already common knowledge because the Coalition ceased to exist months before. In all fairness, it was quite realistic to expect the dissolution of the alliance immediately after the parliamentary elections when the project of winning the power "by joining forces" of the Liberals and Populists, fell through. Also, members of the National Unity have formed a kind of technical coalition: if they do not win at the elections they will part with all due respect. But, the fate of their parties was indirectly dictated by the then united DPS which, with its majority in the Assembly, prevented the formation of separate LSCG and NS deputy clubs. Thus, the Populists and Liberals were condemned to unwillingly live together until they got the first chance to say good-bye.

It seems that the continuation of the coalition cooperation between the LSCG and the NS was also a catalyst of the disintegration of Kilibarda's party. The group around Dr.Bozidar Bojovic considered the continuation of cooperation with the LSCG "the abandonment of the fundamental principles of the National Party". No agreement was reached, so that late last year Dr.Bojovic formed a separate deputy club in the Parliament with four of like-minded members of his party.

It is, however, interesting that the "time to say good-bye" to the coalition National Unity came when the united opposition still had a chance to grab some power for itself. Namely, when forming a transitional government, the Prime Minister designate, Vujanovic, asked the Populists and the Liberals to "nominate" their outstanding officials for ministerial posts.

However, same as the relation to the once-united DPS was the cause of its integration, its relation towards the authorities determined further destiny of the coalition and expedited its disintegration. Representatives of the Liberal Union and the National Party blame each other for this disintegration. The Liberals claim that the main reason for the disintegration lies in the fact that the NS has joined the new, transitional government of Filip Vujanovic, that it has "become a loudspeaker of the ruling party" thereby making the further existence of the alliance impossible. On the other side, the Populists accuse the Liberals, i.e. Perovic, for "indirectly assisting the anti-reform bloc", i.e. Momir Bulatovic's party.

Needless to say, in the background of this conflict are narrow party interests and not the principles of political "virility and bravery". The Liberal Alliance is frantically endeavouring to maintain more or less independent position vis-a-vis Djukanovic's party, primarily fearing that the authorities, which frequently trade on the Montenegrin national interests, might "swallow" its voters. It seems that there is the same motive behind the LSCG's intention to run alone in the parliamentary elections. It could be said that the leader of the Liberals, Slavko Perovic, has managed to save his party from breaking into factions, although during last year some twenty renown members, former deputies and presidents of the communal party boards left its ranks. It appears that after divisions in the National Party the LSCG has become the strongest opposition party. The Liberal convention, held in November last year in Budva, showed that Perovic is sovereignly pulling all the party strings. However, only the May parliamentary elections will show how strong the LSCG really is and to what extent has the withdrawal of numerous top members from its ranks has affected its strength, and above all, the liberal electorate.

On the other hand, Kilibarda's party, fundamentally shaken by the schism within the party ranks is trying to improve its rating by joining forces with the authorities. That is why the disintegration of the coalition National Unity was to be expected. It is inopportune to analyse the accusations: who has chosen the right way. It will be known soon enough - at the parliamentary elections in late May.

However, the story about the National Unity did not end with the disintegration of the coalition. Where the Liberals and the Populists forced of necessity to become allies or perhaps this was also an attempt to create a different Montenegro? The following days will provide an answer to that question. If they continue to pick at each other - like leaders of the Serbian Coalition "Together" - they will prove that this was a clear case of marriage of convenience. In that case they would cut that fine thread that, at least for a short while, brought together those two for ever opposed Montenegroes: the "Serbian" and the "Montenegrin" one. And then the conflict of two options, which has been tearing Montenegro apart for decades, would become more fierce than ever.

But, the saga about a division within the ranks of the strongest political parties in Montenegro got new sequels. The illusion on the monolithism of national parties has been finally dispersed. Interestingly enough - just before Vujanovic's Cabinet was elected and sworn in. This time in the background of this conflict is the attitude to authority and participation in the government. During parliamentary debate Harun Hadzic, the SDA President, harshly reproached the new Prime Minister for disregarding the SDA's requests and instead of entrusting his party with agriculture, water power management or forestry or some ministerial post without portfolio put it in charge of environmental protection. "We do not want gifts, nor charity" said the SDA President and suggested that the election of the Minister for Ecology should be postponed until his party decided what to do.

After the shock caused by Hadzic's intervention "at the eleventh hour" came another one caused by Rifat Veskovic, his party brother-in-arms, when he said "that anyone who failed to realize the importance of SDA's participation in the government cannot be a friend of the Moslem people". And when Veskovic and Orhan Cahmanovic accused Hadzic of implementing the policy of "a third party" instead of pursuing the stand of the the Main Board's majority, having in mind Sulejman Ugljanin as a political mentor of their party's President, it became clear that things have finally come to an end within the SDA. The following days confirmed what could have been guessed after verbal skirmishes in the Assembly - this was a conflict of conceptual, even strategic character: Hadzic's position was formulated in accordance with that of Ugljanin and the Moslem Council, while Veskovic opted for Djukanovic and his policy. If it had a sufficient number of deputies and not only three as is the case, the SDA would also probably immediately form two opposed deputy clubs.

In the meantime the relations between the Democratic Alliance of the Albanians in Montenegro and the Democratic Union of the Albanians - two parliamentary parties which won the votes of over 80 percent of Montenegrin Albanians - have become estranged. Here also, narrow party interests are at stake while the animosity is caused by the approaching parliamentary elections. In all fairness, although the estranged relations of these two parties were rather kept from the public, no one would deny that there was strong personal enmity between Ferhat Dinosa (DUA), present Minister in the Government of Filip Vujanovic, and Mehmed Bardli (DSCG) who "came away empty-handed" in the distribution of the mandates. Further escalation of the conflict can be expected as the electoral campaign approaches.

The political mosaic in Montenegro has been totally broken with the latest developments, while a new political geography is being created. It will be interesting to observe the emergence of new, both formal and informal, political alliances but only the parliamentary elections will determine the real balance of powers. It seems that one thing is certain: none of the parties has nor will have in the foreseeable future the absolute power and force. Montenegro will start its true multi-party life only this year. That should be enough for a new, better, beginning.

Drasko DjURANOVIC

(AIM, Podgorica)