Republica Srpska in Statistical Data

Mere Survival

AIM Banja Luka, 7 February, 1998

Nobody but the inhabitants of RS who managed during 1997 to meet their own and the needs of their families with the average salary, know how they did it.

According to world criteria, the verge of poverty is marked by the annual national income of 4,829 dollars per capita. According to the still unofficial data of the Republican statistics office, the employed in Republica Srpska earned on the average about 320 dinars per month (statistical data for the period between January and October 1997), which, expressed in the favourite currency in this space - the German mark - would amount to about 85 marks. If this amount is multiplied by 12 months, we arrive at the sum of 1,020 German marks, which is, exactly 600 "green notes". The conclusion reached is that the inhabitants of Republica Srpska last year, measured by world criteria, were all, with no exception - mere paupers!

If this can be any consolation, 11 million Yugoslavs cannot boast that they have even got near to the famous figure of 4,829 dollars. They had to settle down for about 1,600 dollars of national income per capita in 1997. For the world, they too are poor, but for the people in Republica Srpska, they are small nabobs.

During the civil war in former SFRY in the period between 1991 and 1995, the standard of living of the population in Republica Srpska was constantly going down. By accepting the Yugoslav dinar as the official payment facility, with unconditioned relying on the economy of FR Yugoslavia, suffering because of the terrible economic sanctions, the average annual income of an employed inhabitant of Republica Srpska, from the former 2,950 dollars in 1990 (the datum for the former Bosnia & Herzegovina) dropped down to only 280 dollars in 1995 (according to the official statistical data the average income in Republica Srpska in 1995 amounted to 68 dinars).

Unable to live normally and earn their living in the country ruled by war frenzy, chained by double sanctions, both the few people working in factories and the numerous ones in trenches witnessed the greatest ever registered inflation in the history of civilization (does not inflation of 313 milluion per cent in the first twenty days of January 1994 sound absolutely ghastly?!) and what it means not to have two pennies to rub together.

In the past year, the total earnings of the employed in RS doubled in comparison with that of two years ago. Some would call it "a step of seven miles ahead", but these average 600 dollars earned in the course of 1997, is too little even for life on the verge of subsistence. The middle class, which used to be the basis in population hierarchy before the war, has disappeared completely, so that nowadays everybody (if 1.2 per cent of wealthy persons are disregarded who, according to the assessment, live among the domicile population of RS) is poor. The only difference is that some are very poor, and the others slightly less poor.

Certain analyses show that among the poor, the city populatiion is in the worst situation, because it has no possibility to earn on the side. Indeed, if we take the example of an ideal case that in the (average) four-member family both parents work and that they earn the average pay, there is the question how it was possible with the total of 1,100 dinars of monthly income in the last month of last year (the average salary in October 1997, according to the data of the Republican statistics office was 419 dinars, but in November the lowest price of labour was corrected by 33.3 per cent, so that an approximate amount of about 550 dinars could be taken as the average income in December) to buy the minimum consumer's basket which cost in that same month little over 1,600 dinars, and pay the overhead expenses - rent, public utilities, ptt services, consumed electric power... Some other expenses which are at present considered to be luxury (although not at all), will not even be mentioned.

Therefore, an enormous gap appeared in the household budget, and yet all the expenses are paid for and hardly anybody has remained hungry? Perhaps the solution lies in the inborn resourcefulness of our people. The sphere of grey economy has significantly diminished results of social poverty. Family budget was supplemented in a million various ways, starting from smuggling everything there is, trading in flee markets, and even reselling of foreign currency. It does not matter what you do in free time, it is important that you can make some money!

And to have some forty basic foodstuffs (in Serbia the consumer's basket contains 65 basic commodities) on the table. Just enough to survive. Therefore, official statistical data on total inflation in Republica Srpska in 1997 amounting to 12.8 per cent, or about the increase of living expenses of 18.7 per cent in comparison with December 1996, to the inahabitants of our Republic mean absolutely nothing.

What else is there concealed in the figures for 1997 of the Republican statistics office? In comparison with 1996, prices of agricultural products have gone up the most, by 37.4 per cent, while beverages have become cheaper by 7.4 per cent. If one looks at the index of living expenses in the past year, rent has gone up by 67.5 per cent, heating fuels and electric power by 47.8 per cent, while services have gone up by 30.1 per cent. For food it was necessary to set aside 18.3 per cent more money than in 1996, while prices of shoes and clothing went down by 2.6 per cent.

The average income in October 1997 was 419 dinars and it was by 61.6 per cent higher than in December 1996. The average salary in the industries amounted to 382 dinars in the same month, and in non-productive branches of the economy 539 dinars. All this sounds pitiable in relation to the average income in the B&H Federation which in December last year amounted to 280 convertible marks (KM), while the consumer's basket for the same month in this neighbouring entity weighed 464 KM. This means that an inhabitant of the Federation needed 1.65 salaries to buy all the goods in the consumer's basket.

As concerning the employed with the average salary in Republica Srpska, according to the previous calculus, they would need three salaries in order to buy the reduced consumer's basket. This is much better than in January 1994, when for the consumer's basket which was worth 398 German marks, 23 average monthly salaries were needed! In December that same year this ratio went down to "only" eight and a half salaries needed to buy the basic foodstuffs.

A year before the civil war in Bosnia & Herzegovina (1991) its inhabitants lived with average monthly inflation of 7.11 per cent which in the end of that year increased to (the then enormous) 245.2 per cent in relation to 1990. If we skip 1992 which towards its end saw inflation which was measured by thousands per cent and 1993, for which there is no big enough figure which would express the inflation in its unfortunate 12 months, but as of 1994 the inflation was considerably restrained. In the end of 1997, inhabitants of Republica Srpska had to cope with a comparatively low inflation of 12.8 per cent.

There are no data about the minimum and the maximum salary in the Republican statistics office, but it can easily be determined on the basis of the lowest price of labour, the official coefficients and the exchange rate between the dinar and the German mark. For example, in state-owned enterprises, unskilled workers have the coefficient ranging between 1.3 and 1.9, qualified (with secondary school) between 1.9 and 2.7, the employed with college education can find themselves in the range between 2.5 and 3.6, while those with university degrees have the coefficient between 3.3 and 5.5. The highest coefficient, from 5 to (the maximum of) 6 are reserved for masters and doctors of science. Based on the previously stated facts, it is clear that in October 1997, unqualified workers had the salary of about 45 DM, and doctors of science about 215 German marks.

But, noone should delude oneself that doctors of science were the best paid in RS in the past year. By far the first were the employees of RS telecomunications company, the electric company and enterprises which deal with oil derivatives. It is generally known that employees of these enterprises (with the salary, allowances, bonuses, transportation) during 1997 on the average received about 250 German marks a month.

Workers in privately-owned green-grocers', various small shops, and other small businesses receive salaries of only about one hundred German marks. In cafes and boutiques, the situation is slightly better, and the owners pay their workers between 150 and 200 marks, but in cafes, of course, it is possible to earn another salary on tips. In 95 per cent of cases, regardless of the legal obligation, the owners do not register their workers, so that they have neither health nor retirement insurance.

According to statistical data in the period between January and September 1997, industrial production increased by 21.3 per cent in reference to the same period in 1996. In 23 industrial branches an increase was registered, mostly in final wood products (43.5 per cent), in oil production (43.1 per cent) and in metal processing industries (31.2 per cent). Six branches did worse than in 1996, worst of all paper manufacturing (decline of 30.6 per cent), recycling of raw materials (28.6 per cent), and processing of chemicals which dropped by 9.2 per cent.

The most significant trading partner of Republica Srpska was FR Yugoslavia, but there are still no official data on the value of either exported or imported goods in the course of last year.

In October 1997, there were 142,699 unemployed persons in RS, most of them in Banja Luka region. Among the unemployed there were 1,762 with university education, 3,317 with college, and 35,469 with secondary school education.

Last year, Republica Srpska had 157,710 pensioners who received their last pension in October which anmounted to 176.93 dinars on the average or just about 40 marks. The pensions ranged from 47 to 480 dinars (1:10) or from 10.5 to 107 German marks.

Goran Vukanovic (AIM)