NEW CROATIAN POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY

AIM Zagreb, 28 January, 1998

Since Saturday, 24 january, a new party exists in Croatia. Just two months after the schismatic seventh convention of the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS) and a fierce conflict between Budisa's and Gotovac's factions, the Liberal Party was founded in Zagreb, and its first president is Vlado Gotovac. These, as they call themselves, true Liberals, managed to attract a significant number of members away from Budisa, and more and more frequently we witness many regional leaderships refusing to obey Budisa, choosing to be the classical opposition, committed to the firm stand that there can be no reconciliation or cooperation with the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ). The platform of the new party was perhaps best presented by Gotovac himself: "If it is true that the HDZ can be removed only by revolutionary methods, Croatia is not a democratic country. If it is true that it is possible to win the elections against the HDZ, then that is what we will do. The sense of our party is not to improve the HDZ but to change Croatia. That is why we are open for all those who wish to build liberal democracy together with us. To those who fear that the HDZ will not surrender power after its defeat, we are sending word that we are thinking only about how we will win."

Like most of the Croatian parties, this Liberal one also sees itself in the political centre, but it is ready for cooperation with all those whose main aim is to change the current party in power. Because of that firm stand against the HDZ and those who are ready to cooperate with Tudjman, it nevertheless seems that Gotovac has turned considerably to the left, but in Croatia there still exists fear to admit: yes, we are leftists. At this moment it is difficult to evaluate what is the true weight of the Liberal Party on the Croatian political market, but its very appearance has introduced significant changes into the current jigsaw puzzle. The founding convention was not only the final denouement with quasi-liberalism of the decent nationalist Drazen Budisa, but at the same time the definite end of the so-called Porec group of parties of the centre, formed by HSLS, Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS), Croatian National Party (HNS) and the Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS). This was clear already in the local elections in the seaside and mountain district, when the parties of the "Family" headed by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) easily beat HDZ, and the peasants who by no means wanted to go along with the communists, failed to win a single seat in the district assembly. So therefore, while Ivic Pasalic, one of the main Tudjman's associates and advisors, is persistently repeating his invitation to cooperation to Budisa's Liberals and Tomcic's Peasants, thanks to which the HDZ has maintained power in several cities (Zagreb, Zadar, Bjelovar, Dubrovnik...), the formula used in Rijeka is gradually imposing itself as the only way towards change of the regime.

    This practically means that Budisa and Tomcic will be

the only ones who will stay in the political centre, both with a dubious rating among the voters, because these are the two parties which have most frequently fallen short of expectations and in which there were many who easily changed colours for the sake of just little power. Budisa and Tomcic are already recognized by the public as hangers-on of the HDZ, who are the true culprits for breaking up of the centre and for bipolarisation of Croatia. Budisa's HSLS was definitely compromised after the elections in Zagreb, but also because the manner in which it squared accounts with those who were their colleagues until just recently. The following Budisa's statement is still ringing in the ears of many: "I am the legal president and I demand that the secretary of the party hands over the keys to me immediately!" Such a thing, evidently, cannot be uttered by a man who is a liberal and a democrat. Time will show how many people have remained faithful to Budisa, but it is already clear that the Croatian Peasants' Party is simply an anachronism and that it will follow in the steps of the Croat Party of Right, and find it very difficult to gather five per cent of the votes needed to be represented in the assembly.

What is actually happening after Rijeka and foundation of the Liberal Party. Parties of the moderate centre, or moderate left, have in fact agreed to form a unique block, together with the powerful Social Democratic Party, which will try to oppose the HDZ. Although the "Porec group" has not formally been dissolved yet, it is becoming increasingly clear that the president of the Nationalists Ratomir Cacic will not cooperate with Budisa and Tomcic, nor the president of the Istrian Democratic Assembly, Ivan Jakovcic. A new coalition is, therefore being created: SDP, HNS, IDS and a few minor left or regional parties.

The split of the Liberals into two parties forced Budisa and Tomcic into the open, and enabled creation of coalitions which seemed inconceivable until just a year ago. It should be added that these parties also have the support of the most powerful trade unions. In the HDZ they probably gloated when they had succeeded in splitting the Liberals, but all things considered it seems that their calculations were wrong. The fact which illustrates this is that there are many in Gotovac's party who have not been members of any party before, while those known to everybody have remained faithful to Budisa. Gotovac has felt and become aware that Croatdom as a political program has been exhausted, while Budisa is still singing "Croatia uber alles", concealing his toadying behind quasi-national interests, often like Tomcic, fearing of some restoration of communism.

In HDZ they are, of course, carefully watching what is going on and preparing for their postponed convention (allegedly in order to see how departure of UNTAES would go). Everything is boiling in it. This movement is also starting a definite showdown for post-Tudjman's era, and the election conventions in districts indicate that squaring accounts with the so-called "founders" continues, as well as that the number of new people is increasing, or rather of those who were in the shadow so far. The rhetoric used by the leadership has greatly changed, from Tudjman downward, because it has become evident that there is no war any more, that is, nothing to blame for all failures and no alibi. It is interesting to notice that at the last session of the Croatian state assembly, members of the HDZ and the oppositionists were equally critical in respect to the draft new law on the government, and that both the ones and the others were disappointed with the report of the state auditing service and the fact that nobody was held responsible for numerous abuses and thefts.

The convention of the HDZ is therefore expected with great interest. It would not be realistic to expect big shifts from Tudjman and the HDZ, but it is quite certain that it will be impossible, under pressure of the public, to pass over in silence the delicate topics or the notorious value-added tax. It would be no surprise if Tudjman and the HDZ slapped certain segments of the administration on the wrists, in order to take up the ball of criticism from the opposition. Indeed, Tudjman has many times before used methods of his idol Josip Broz, who in order to preserve the integrity of power, used to attack some of its segments.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC